Tom Lee is a name that needs no introduction in both mainstream finance and cryptocurrency. Lee’s resume includes being the chief equity strategist for J.P. Morgan before going on to co-found Fundstrat Global Advisors in 2014. He is the only mainstream Wall Street strategist who takes a keen interest in the cryptocurrency market. He is known within the cryptocurrency community as one who regularly releases price targets for bitcoin. Lee has recently declared that right now is the best time to buy bitcoin because the ‘bitcoin misery index’ (BMI) is at the ‘misery’ level.
Lee made these assertions in an interview with CNBC on Friday, March 9, 2018, where he said that the current bitcoin index is at 18.8. According to him, this is the lowest bitcoin misery index since September of 2011. Speaking about the figure, Lee explained that the index was within the ‘misery’ rating, meaning that holders of the cryptocurrency are ‘miserable’ right now.
Based on historical data provided by Lee, whenever, the bitcoin misery index entered the ‘misery’ range, bitcoin experienced a price increase within the following year. This trend has occurred in each of the last four times the bitcoin misery index has fallen quite low which is why Lee maintains that an upward price swing is on the horizon making this the perfect time to buy the cryptocurrency.
The Bitcoin Misery Index: A Sentiment Indicator
The bitcoin misery index is a sentiment indicator which means that it is a numerical or graphical indication of the collective feelings of bitcoin holders towards the cryptocurrency. Like other sentiment indicators, the bitcoin misery indicator functions best when used as a contrarian indicator. The definition of a contrarian indicator is simply an investment indicator that pushes investors to act contrary to the prevailing market sentiment. According to Lee, the situation with bitcoin is only a short-term thing and that entering the market right now has the potential to lead to long-term gains.
The bitcoin misery indicator is a scale from 0 to 100. According to Lee, it is a measure of how happy or sad people are concerning ownership of bitcoin. A value below 27 signifies the entry into the region known as ‘misery’ where people are advised to buy the cryptocurrency because a potential price increase is on the immediate horizon. Signals such as volatility and the percentage of winning trades are used to determine the bitcoin misery index.
Tom Lee is a name that needs no introduction in both mainstream finance and cryptocurrency. Lee’s resume includes being the chief equity strategist for J.P. Morgan before going on to co-found Fundstrat Global Advisors in 2014. He is the only mainstream Wall Street strategist who takes a keen interest in the cryptocurrency market. He is known within the cryptocurrency community as one who regularly releases price targets for bitcoin. Lee has recently declared that right now is the best time to buy the leading cryptocurrency because the ‘bitcoin misery index’ (BMI) is at the ‘misery’ level.
Potential Reasons for the Misery Rating
The price of bitcoin since the start of 2018 has failed to reach the heights seen in the last week of November and early weeks of December 2017. After almost reaching the $20,000 mark, the price fell to below $6,000 amidst fears of stricter regulations from many of countries. Such has been the decline in the price of bitcoin that almost 50 percent of its value was wiped off in a matter of weeks. There have been massive selloffs as panicky traders seek to salvage their losses. Lee remains bullish however that BTC-USD will climb again.
BTCManager had previously reported that Lee predicted a midyear price of $20,000 for bitcoin and an end of year price of $25,000. In the interview on Friday, Lee maintained the same the position saying that the bitcoin misery index being at ‘misery’ level shows that future price increases are on the way and it generates a signal once every year.
Furthermore, the price of bitcoin is expected to have a bright future according to John McAfee, who stated that it will reach $1 million by 2020. One website visually displays the trend growth required for McAfee’s prediction to come true, with the current price around 30 percent ahead of this level (as shown below).