by Jamie Holmes
BTC-USD has bounced back above $1800 momentarily on May 14 after dipping as low as $1601.46 on the Bitstamp exchange on May 13. After posting a fresh all-time high at $1892.00 earlier in the week, the market has completed a retracement to the 61.8 percent Fibonacci level and closed higher than the Fibonacci resistance at $1714.76 on May 13, pointing to bullish dominance.
The 4-hour chart below shows that the market is currently testing fractal resistance at $1794.21. A 4-hour close above this level will open up the all-time high at $1892.00. The potential for upward momentum is strengthening as the conversion line (blue) looks to cross above the base line (red). Also, we see that late on May 13, the market closed above the base line, giving a strong bullish signal. Limit buy positions could be set around the base line at $1746 to get into the uptrend as this level will now provide support. Alternatively, we could buy at market once the conversion line crosses above the base line on the 4-hour chart.
Also, we see that the Awesome Oscillator has moved back into positive territory after briefly turning red and going below zero. Since the oscillator has moved back above zero and is green, buy positions are favored.
The daily chart below shows that if BTC-USD breaks the high at $1892.00, the market will head towards the Fibonacci extension level at $2356.12. Therefore, we could set limit buy orders just above $1892.00 with a target of $2356.12. Also, a daily close above $1828.45 will point to further gains, as this represents a break of the last resistance provided by the lagging line, highlighted below.
However, the conversion line has flattened out, providing support just below $1700.
The weekly price action below shows that this week has seen the highest buy volumes since early November 2016. Since volumes precedes price action, we can expect further upside in the weeks ahead as more participants enter the market. Also, we see four consecutive weeks of higher volume on Bitstamp, supporting the move higher.
Since posting a low at $891.33 in March, the market has made six near consecutive higher highs, suggesting more room to the upside. The market will considered to be exhausted once we get to around seven to ten near consecutive higher highs, implying that the current bull run may falter toward the end of June.