by Jamie Holmes
BTC-USD has broken to a fresh all-time high on August 5, as Asian markets dominated the bullish charge, despite the hard fork of Bitcoin Cash on August 1. The hard fork did not just test Bitcoin itself but also the ecosystem, with many exchanges providers changing their stance on Bitcoin Cash. The price reached a high of $3230.00 on the Bitstamp exchange on August 5, breaking the previous all-time high at $2980.00 in June, driven by various factors such as deteriorating confidence in the US dollar and anticipation of a smoother road map going forward for Bitcoin.
The daily chart below shows that bulls are firmly in control, with a bullish Marubozu displayed so far for August 5. In our previous price analysis, we indicated support would be found at the 50 percent and base level of July 20’s candlestick, where BTC-USD gained more than $600, and suggested limit buy orders at these levels ($2570.27 and $2265.51 respectively). Following the large bullish Marubozu, we see that the market tested the 50 percent support at $2570.27 and dived as low as $2400.00, and by July 28, the price of bitcoin recovered to $2825.00.
The chart above shows that the slope of the conversion line has increased sharply, with the first indication of an upward move given on August 4, when the conversion line started to trend higher after remaining horizontal for several days. If the daily candlestick closes as a bullish Marubozu, we will have two entry points into the uptrend, at the 50 percent and open level.
We should see the market tend toward $3622.74, the first Fibonacci extension level, using the move from the recent low of $1830.00 to $2938.00, shown below. We draw the Fibonacci tool for two opposite fractals once a fresh high or low is established and captures the market structure by capturing one wave of the market. A further target lies at the 261.8 percent Fibonacci extension level at $4730.74 and we now make the case that this is the ultimate target for the unfolding bullish run.
The weekly chart is shown below and we have a buy signal that has yet to be triggered, suggesting there is much more room to the upside for BTC-USD. A Bullish Saucer is forming for the Awesome Oscillator, which indicates that a huge influx of bullish momentum is about to take hold in the market. The signal has not even been triggered yet, as it cannot be until the new weekly candlestick forms, that is until Monday August 7.
Once the market breaks the high of the weekly candlestick of July 31-August 6, we should see a huge move upward in the following weeks. We should place a limit buy order just above this level by a few points. The best time to do this is as midnight passes, early Monday morning (UTC), in this case, August 7. Once the Bullish Saucer signal is confirmed on/after August 7, the upward momentum will intensify and BTC-USD will tend toward $3622.72, with the possibility of scaling to $4730.74 over the longer term.
Also, we see that the fractal resistance at $2980 looks to be broken this week, with a weekly close above this level giving stronger confirmation on August 7. Using the Fibonacci extension over this longer-term timeframe, we see that the initial target for buyers will be $4270.80, which provides another take profit level for long positions that are triggered by the Bullish Saucer signal.
In summary, based on the structure of the market, we should see an influx of new buyers and bullish momentum to take bitcoin to fresh highs above $3230. The high so far this week is $3230.00, so we would set a limit buy order at $3230.10 with take profit targets at $3622.72, $4270.80 and $4730.74. If a new high is posted before August 7, we should adjust the trade accordingly. Once the signal from the Awesome Oscillator is triggered, we expect bitcoin to make a massive upward move.