by Jamie Holmes
The price of bitcoin has displayed a massive surge on April 12, breaking through the $7000 barrier with ease and reaching a fresh high for the month of April at $8069.34. At the time of writing, bitcoin has been tempered to $7699.68 on the Bitstamp exchange.
The 15-minute chart below shows how BTC-USD broke through $7000 and advanced more than $1000 in under an hour. The price of bitcoin reached a fresh high for April, after struggling to break the $7000 resistance during April 8-9.
Resistances lie at $7850.00 and $8069.34, while support is found at $7665.42 and $7638.03. A 15-min close above $7850.00 would motivate a buy position and should see a continuation of the uptrend. On the other hand, a break of $7665.42/$7638.03 is suggested to lead to further weakness.
A focus on the end of the tax season in many countries, as well as geopolitical factors, may be influencing greater buy interest in the cryptocurrency; nevertheless, technical factors also point to a reversal into a bullish run in the weeks ahead, as we will outline further below.
The situation in Syria has intensified over the past week, with the more traditional safe haven, gold, gaining on escalations in the Middle East and talk of a trade war. Until April 12, bitcoin has remained relatively muted, displaying no reaction to the news out of Syria.
The daily chart for bitcoin is shown below and illustrates an attempt to break the resistance provided by the base line (red) at $7807.63; a daily close above this level will give a weak bullish signal and should see the market tend toward the Ichimoku cloud. Another interesting thing to notice is that the Ichimoku cloud is very thin from April 16-23, suggesting resistance offered around $8850 will be very weak. Therefore, if the bullish momentum is sustained, we look for a break above the cloud to confirm a longer-term uptrend is starting to take hold.
The Market Facilitation Index is green for April 12, meaning that the move higher is supported by fresh volume. Also, we see a double trough in the Awesome Oscillator which usually precedes a change in trend from down to up.
The weekly chart below shows that the next two weeks will give a strong signal as to whether a bullish run is imminent. Already, it suggests that if BTC-USD can maintain above $6427.16 until April 23, then we should see the beginning of a series of higher highs.
We see that since the recent high at $11,780, the market only managed to make three near consecutive lower lows. The market only has one more weekly session to make a new lower low otherwise the count is invalidated. Remember, a market is considered exhausted once we observe seven to 11 near consecutive lower lows (or higher highs). The count is restarted if we have three consecutive weeks with no new lower low (or higher high in an uptrend).
Once the current count is invalidated on April 23, we should see the market begin to make new highs and enter into a bullish run. Furthermore, the Market Facilitation Index was a fade for the previous week, suggesting that the downward trend has been exhausted and providing another reason for a reversal.
Fibonacci resistance stands at $7799.96, a break of which would open up the next Fibonacci resistance at $10065.64. A weekly close above $7799.96 would be considered bullish and would coincide with a fractal buy level, which is forming at $6427.16, the low from April 1.
Disclaimer: The author holds bitcoin.