by Jamie Holmes
BTC-USD inched closer to $2000 on May 19, establishing yet another all-time high at $1954.99 on the Bitstamp exchange while cryptocurrency markets simultaneously followed bitcoin higher; ether broke above the $100 psychological level for the first time since its inception in July 2015.
While there is a lot of talk of a ‘flippening,’ where Ethereum will take Bitcoin’s lead in the new frontier of cryptocurrency, both digital assets have surged together, with altcoins showing strong gains as well. Other commodities such as oil and gold are also in the black on May 19. Global demand is suggested to be higher in Japan and South Korea as CNBC reports, accounting for almost half of the global trading volume. As Bloomberg notes, some skeptics say that bitcoin is in a bubble or nearing one, but the rising price reflects the narrowing subjective value placed on the cryptocurrency by people across the world. Political uncertainty across the globe, especially in the US, may be contributing to a narrowing in the range of subjective value people are placing on bitcoin.
After breaking above the previous all-time high at $1892.00, BTC-USD’s surge opens up the 161.8 percent Fibonacci extension level at $2356.12 over the long term. A daily and weekly close above $1892.00 will give further confirmation. Also, it is important to mention that the $2000 psychological level stands in the way and may see some uncertainty in the direction of the market around this area. Nevertheless, the structure of the market indicates that $2356.12 could be reached as soon as June 1, as the market established a fractal support at $1641.22 on May 16. So far, the market has made three record highs, and the bullish move will exhaust itself after around ten near consecutive record highs, meaning that in approximately seven weeks (or more), we shall see the $2356.12 target reached.
Also, notice that the Ichimoku’s conversion line has started to display a higher gradient, indicating that the market will continue to move higher. A bullish signal was given on May 19, as the Awesome Oscillator has completed a bullish saucer. A limit buy order at the high of the May 18 price action at $1881.80 should have been set as we entered into May 19. The bullish saucer signal tells us that upward momentum will dominate and buyers will continue to exert control over the medium term.
Ether may be displaying such strong gains because of the Consensus event, which will kick off on May 22, where companies will showcase their Ethereum applications, which may attract more attention and provide a boost for the price of ether. The Ethereum Enterprise Alliance will be one of the main speakers in this event, and may see some interesting revelations that will have repercussions for cryptocurrency markets.
As the weekly price action for ETH-USD shows below, the next target for the digital asset is $132.58 the next Fibonacci extension level. We see that the previous week’s price action there was some manipulation on Kraken, as indicated by the large movements, Doji candlesticks and a blue Market Facilitation Index (known as a ‘fake’) for the previous week. However, this week the Market Facilitation Index turned brown, indicating a ‘fade,’ which should have prompted traders to buy at the start of the week as market was above the key support at $84.61.
Further resistance is found at the 361.8 percent Fibonacci extension level, which is at $180.54. Looking at the daily chart below, we see that this target is well within reach. For instance, a bullish signal to enter into a long on ETH-USD was provided on May 19, as the market broke above the May 14 high at $96.485. Looking at the Awesome Oscillator, we see that this provided a signal to buy as the market completes a bullish saucer. A bullish saucer is a reliable entry signal and indicates that the upward momentum is just getting started.
Also, notice that the Ichimoku cloud has started to trend higher and expand after remaining horizontal and thin for the past four or five days. Moreover, the conversion line (blue) has displayed a steep upward gradient over the past few days and the fact it is moving higher tells us that short-term equilibrium price for ether is also rising, currently standing at $100.00. The conversion line will provide support going forward and a daily close below this level will give the first indication of a correction or change in trend.