by Jamie Holmes
BTC-USD has once again displayed its resilience. Last week saw bears take grip of the market, bringing the market to a low near $5555. However, this week, the losses have been reversed almost entirely, with the price of bitcoin within grasp of the all-time high at $7888.00.
The monthly chart below shows that even with such a fast and deep move downward, the bullish trend remains intact even if BTC-USD approaches $4326.09, the open level of October’s bullish Marubozu candlestick. However, the market didn’t even test the 50 percent level at $5380.15, rebounding from $5555.55 on November 12.
However, the monthly chart does show that the market has displayed 11 near consecutive higher highs, suggesting bulls may become exhausted by early 2018, and a reversal due.
The weekly chart below shows that a weekly close above $7372.72 will give indications of further upside, and opens up the Fibonacci extension level at $10,076.44. Moreover, a weekly close above the Fibonacci level at $6926.54 will also give confirmation of a long-term drift to the psychological $10,000 handle. Notice that last week, the market neared the conversion line (blue) at $5430.00 before closing slightly higher at $5870.38. The conversion line continued its uptrend this week, with support at $5701.00.
The Awesome Oscillator suggests that bullish momentum may start to wane, as the indicator starts to display a concave shape, suggesting we should see a peak in the Oscillator in the current week or next few weeks. Moreover, if the market does not manage to break the high at $7888.00 by November 27, then a fractal resistance will form at last week’s high, which will foretell bearish momentum.
Looking at the daily chart below, we see that a bullish saucer may be setting up. If we look at the Awesome Oscillator, we see a long string of red bars, decreasing in value. If November 16’s bar on the oscillator turns green, then we can get ready for a bullish outburst. Notice the previous bullish saucer signal which was triggered October 31; the Oscillator indicated to buy on a break of $6316.85 and BTC-USD reached a high of $7590.00 on November 5. Similarly, if the bullish saucer is confirmed for November 16, we look to buy on a break of the high on November 16, with a target of $10,000 (or we can exit when the Awesome Oscillator turns red after a series of green bars).
Another resistance, as signaled by the lagging line (purple), lies at $7450.32. A break of this resistance or daily close above $7450.32 would see bulls unrestricted and we expect the price of bitcoin to surge to at least $8791.28 in this case. Notice that the market fully retraced to $5646.18 on November 12 before bouncing from this support and continuing the preceding uptrend. November 15’s close looks to be above the conversion line (blue) and base line (red) giving a strong bullish signal for the days ahead.