by Jamie Holmes
The price of bitcoin is at record highs on May 1, reaching $1425 on the Bitstamp exchange, after breaking the previous all-time high at $1350. A move above the peak reached in the market mayhem accompanying the SEC’s ETF decision indicates that a long-term target for bulls has been validated at $1719.97.
The monthly timeframe is shown below, with April’s candlestick displaying bullish dominance with a Marubozu, suggesting that it may be an optimal time to enter into a long position on bitcoin. After see-sawing around $1163 in February and March, a clear break of the $1163.00 handle has been achieved in April, pointing to a move toward $1829.20 over the remainder of 2017.
Also, notice that the Ichimoku cloud and converison line (blue) are moving higher as compared to the previous month, suggesting that the market will continue to trend higher for May.
Week on week volume has been growing for the past 21 days, pointing to further gains ahead, as shown by the chart below. The next target for buyers will lie at the 161.8 percent Fibonacci extension level at $1719.97. Also, notice that the Awesome Oscillator is following the price, establishing a breakout this week from the previous peak of the Oscillator at 346.25 during the week beginning March 13. This confirms the breakout will lead to further gains and gives a strong probability the market will reach $1719.97 over the long term.
The daily chart for BTC-USD is shown below. Notice the sharp graident of the conversion line, which is almost vertical, suggesting strong bullish momentum. Also, we see that the Market Facilitation Index is green, suggesting that traders should follow the market momentum and try to buy in into the ongoing uptrend.
However, we may see some short-term correction. For example, the market has almost reached the Fibonacci extension level at $1432.44 and may turn back down to support at $1321.12. However, a break above $1432.44 will open up resistance at $1543.76.
Bitcoin has been rising recently as the SEC announced it will reconsider the ETF decision for the cryptocurrency. Bats exchange submitted an appeal on March 23, asking the regulator to revert its position. If the decision is reversed and a bitcoin ETF is given the go ahead, this would bring fresh capital into the cryptocurrency and consequently push its value much higher, so the market may be pricing in a U-turn on the Winklevoss Bitcoin ETF.
Also, an accomodative stance toward the cryptocurrency in Japan has also favored bulls in the market, with bitcoin given legal payment status on April 1. Adoption has increased as a result, pushing demand higher and perhaps one major factor behind the recent price increase. Also, as Nikkei reported on May 1, ten major Japanese companies are planning to launch exchanges for bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies and the regulatory guidelines in place since April have contributed to an increase in confidence in the sector, where bitcoin’s image was tarnished in the country as a result of the Mt. Gox scandal.
“We didn’t even have minimum guidelines” back in 2014, when the bitcoin exchange Mt. Gox collapsed, “so users will now feel more secure,” an SBI Virtual Currencies representative said. GMO Internet group plans to expand the breadth of cryptocurrencies on offer based on demand. The Japan Cryptocurrency Business Association reckons that approximately 18 companies are in the process of planning to apply for a license. By July 2017, Japan’s consumption tax will no longer apply to cryptocurrency, which could boost adoption and trading volume in the country even further.