by Jamie Holmes
Another bullish move may unravel in bitcoin markets as the price rebounds from lows at $10,868.57 on January 25. The market looks to head to recent highs, with a break of January 25’s peak at $11,741.82 likely to open up an attempt at $13,000.
The 2-hour price action for BTC-USD is displayed below, with the close at 22:00 (UTC) above the teeth (blue) and the jaw (red) of the Alligator indicator. The Alligator indicator is close together and trendless, suggesting a breakout is imminent and we should look for new positions to enter. The ‘Alligator is asleep’ and once awakened, the ‘mouth’ (lips, jaw, teeth) will begin to open in the direction of the trend.
The market price has recovered from the $10,000 handle since January 23 and now looks to move above the Alligator indicator, suggesting the beginning of an uptrend. The most recent 2-hour close failed to close above the Alligator’s lips (green), so we look for a 2-hour close that satisfies this condition to enter into a long position.
For the session 22:00 – 00:00 (UTC), the Alligator’s jaw (red) is at $11,239.63, so a 2-hour close above this level would give a bullish signal, with the first close above the indicator since January 24 (which saw a rally from $11,120.19 to a peak of $11,741.82).
BTC-USD (2-hour, Bitstamp)
The Awesome Oscillator has also turned bullish for the most recent 2-hour session, setting up a bullish saucer and another entry signal. Therefore, we suggest to look to take another long position during the 00:00 to 02:00 session, when the bullish saucer signal will potentially be triggered. We also observe a bullish signal with a break of the most recent fractal above the Alligator, i.e. at $11,741.82. A break of the fractal should open up $13,052.12.
A bearish outlook is only validated once if the market closes below the Alligator indicator, with support provided around $11,161.78 by the teeth (blue) and around $11,160 to $11,180 for the 2-hour sessions ahead. A sell signal is also given on a break below $10,868.57, with a fractal buy level just recently formed. The $10,000 handle provides support.
The recently formed fractal provides a bullish bias since we have two buy fractals at a similar level and it seems that $11,741.82 is a ‘start’ fractal which will trigger a move to $13,000.