by Jamie Holmes
BTC-USD is down around 2 percent on today’s open on the Bitstamp exchange, testing the critical $1300 handle. The market came within inches of breaching the all-time high at $1350.00, posted in the mayhem leading up to the SEC’s decision on the Winklevoss ETF. The SEC is now reconsidering the bitcoin ETF, which could be driving bullish sentiment.
The daily price action below shows that bitcoin’s price peaked at $1347.02 so far on April 28 but stands just above $1300.00 at the time of writing. The conversion line offers support at $1273.01, and also indicates short-term equilibrium. With higher highs and higher lows established today, if the downward movement continues, we could be witnessing a fractal sell level forming at $1347.02. If BTC-USD remains below $1347.02 until May 1, the fractal sell level will be confirmed and will provide additional impetus for bears to take charge.
A break above $1347.02 should see the market drive past the recent all-time high at $1350. Using Fibonacci analysis, we see that if the price of bitcoin manages to sustain above $1350.00, the next target over the long-term will be $1719.35. Therefore, we could set limit buy orders at $1347.12 to take advantage of a bullish breakout.
The shorter-term outlook is displayed below with the 4-hour price action. A fractal sell level has already formed at this timeframe at $1347.02, the recent high. The market recently invalidated a fractal buy level at $1300.00, suggesting potential for futher downside. A fractal buy level could potentially form at the recent low at $1299.00, however, if the market breaks below $1299, we anticipate further downside. In this case, bitcoin will head to the equilibrium zone as indicated by the Ichimoku cloud, that is around $1220-$1240.
Another bearish indication is that the market price has moved below the conversion line, signaling that the market will tend back into equilibrium, as shown below by the green Ichimoku cloud. The base line provides immediate support at $1295.02. A 4-hour session close below the base line will point to strengthened bearish momentum and indicate a higher likelihood of a return to equilibrium.
The Awesome Oscillator also shows that bulls are beginning to lose control of the market’s momentum, as the indicator is declining and has changed color to red.
The 4-hour Renko chart below shows that a downward trend may be forming, but we have yet to obtain confirmation, as a bearish, red Renko candle has not formed. A 4-hour session close below $1292 will produce the first bearish, red Renko candle and will indicate the start of a short-term downtrend. On the other hand, if BTC-USD remains above $1292, we should see bulls hold on to control.