by Jamie Holmes
As stocks plunge globally on geopolitical concerns, Bitcoin has reached a fresh all-time high, nearing the $13,000 level. As we approach the end of 2017, profit taking will be a major theme in traditional markets, while geopolitical events are heating up, providing an opportunity for bitcoin to galvanize its advance.
On November 6, BTC-USD reached a fresh all-time at $12,815.18. The 4-hour chart below shows that the market is approaching an important resistance zone between, $13,226.34 and $13,569.74 as highlighted in our previous price analysis. Therefore, it seems the bullish momentum will continue to push bitcoin above $13,000.
The conversion line (blue) indicates support around $12,099.71 and notice the flat conversion line suggests this area may be a good zone to set limit buy orders and get in on the ongoing uptrend.
The 15-minute chart shown below highlights two important fractal levels to keep an eye on going forward, namely at $12,780 and $12,538.16. We look for the upward surge to continue on a break above $12,780, whereas we should find support around $12,538.16. A break of the support at $12,538.16 will open up the Ichimoku cloud as the next support zone, which lies above $12,000 to $12,300 at the time of writing.
However, even though bitcoin looks to push to new highs, UK fund manager Neil Woodford suggests that stock markets and asset prices are overvalued, pointing to an extreme value of the differential between performance of value stocks and growth stocks today. Woodford stated:
“Ten years on from the global financial crisis, we are witnessing the product of the biggest monetary policy experiment in history. Investors have forgotten about risk and this is playing out in inflated asset prices and inflated valuations. Whether it’s Bitcoin going through $10,000, European junk bonds yielding less than US Treasuries, historic low levels of volatility or smart beta ETFs attracting gigantic inflows – there are so many lights flashing red that I am losing count….. The difference between the performance of value stocks and growth stocks today, is greater than at any stage in stock market history.”
Brexit is expected to continue to weigh on markets, as the EU hands a deadline to the UK for December 8, which should be a positive fundamental for bitcoin. Stock markets have also reacted negatively to the December 8 deadline on the US debt ceiling. Other geopolitical events include an intensification of the war in Syria, with Israel recently launching missiles into the country and Trump’s statement on the recognition of Jerusalem as the country’s capital, which is no doubt going to fan the flames in the Middle East even more. Asian markets slumped on December 6 in response to the combination of these developments.
The price of bitcoin has been boosted not just by geopolitical events but also the upcoming futures contracts launch by the CME and CBOE. The contracts will allow investors to trade bitcoin, without having to own the asset directly.
Naeem Aslam of Think Markets made it clear that he anticipates more record highs in a statement made to The Guardian:
“It appears that the momentum is unstoppable and we do think that the $14,000 level could reach before the bitcoin futures start trading at the CBOE which is on the 11 December. Principally, investors are thoughtful that when institutional money will be involved, the chances are that the price would move higher. Large investment funds have not been able to take the piece of the pie yet and that would be their opportunity to get on board.”
As we approach the launch of futures contracts, lots of liquidity will be added to the market. Volumes traded in bitcoin markets have been increasingly significantly over the past few weeks, breaching above $1 billion in a 24-hour period some weeks ago to over $9 billion on December 6. As the saying goes, volumes precede prices, and the rising interest in the cryptocurrency will no doubt see it exceed the $13,500 zone in the upcoming weeks.