by Jamie Holmes
Following attainment of our target at $1074.69, BTC-USD has surged even higher, posting a fresh high on February 21 at $1119.00 on the Bitstamp exchange. The market will now tend toward fractal resistance at $1136.72 and attempt a test of the 2017 high at $1139.89.
— BTCMANAGER (@btc_manager) February 10, 2017
— BTCMANAGER (@btc_manager) February 20, 2017
As the approval for the Winklevoss ETF approaches, it seems that traders are pricing in a positive outcome for the bitcoin investors, who are also behind the daily bitcoin auctions via Gemini.
Speaking to MarketWatch, Amith B. Nirgunarthy, director of marketing & HNW Partnerships at Bitcoin IRA, and Chris Dannen, a founding partner at Iterative Instinct, a New York-based private-equity fund that trades digital assets, both expressed their view that traders are attempting to 'front-run' the SEC’s decision on the Winklevoss Bitcoin Trust ETF.
A decision is expected March 11 and as the date draws near, the intensity of front-running efforts may increase. Whichever way the decision goes, Danned expects a lot of fresh funds to flow into bitcoin, given Japan's regulatory framework for cryptocurrencies will take effect in April, which may see a large proportion of the globe's institutional funds flows into bitcoin.
The 4-hour price action for BTC-USD is shown above and shows that the next critical resistance area ilies between fractal resistances at $1136.72 and $1139.89. A break of this zone will lead to further appreciation, with the market anticipated to head toward the all-time high at $1163.00.
The steep angles of both the conversion line (blue) and base line (red) indicate strong bullish momentum, further backed up by the Awesome Oscillator which is trending higher and remains green.
The Ichimoku cloud, which is currently green, is also heading higher, with the equilibrium price for BTC-USD rising from around $1010 to $1040 up to $1040 to $1080 for February 26, highlighting an important support zone toward the week end.
The daily chart below also displays strong bullish momentum that is likely to continue. For instance, notice that the green Ichimoku cloud is starting to fan upwards, suggesting a continunation of the long-term uptrend. Secondly, the conversion line is becoming steeper, suggesting buyers are asserting control. Also, the price rise on February 21 is supported by higher volume, foretelling of further gains in the days ahead.
Limit buy orders are suggested around the conversion line, which should provide support, currently at $1047.05. Alternatively, limit buy orders could be placed at $1137.72 to take advantage of another bullish breakout, with an initial target of $1163.00 as well as $1250.00.
A close above $1119.80 by Sunday February 26 will point to a huge upside for bitcoin. Take the monthly chart below, and notice that $1119.80 is the only remaining resistance provided by the lagging line (purple). A break of this level will leave only psychological handles such as $1250 and $1500 as potential resistance areas. Also, the Ichimoku cloud has just turned green for the first time in BTC-USD's history, suggesting what we are watching unfold in cryptocurrency markets is just the beginning of a long-term uptrend for bitcoin.