by Jamie Holmes
BTC-USD has been rejected twice at the $680, seeing strong selling interest over the past couple of days. On the BitStamp exchange, BTC-USD is currently trading at $670.00, down 1.52 percent on the day’s open. While over the long-term daily timeframe, the market looks to be calm and indecisive on direction, the short-term outlook shows bigger risks to the downside for BTC-USD.
The daily chart below illustrates that the market is consolidating within the range of $704.99 and $608.64. This suggests that a decision on the next direction over the long-term has yet to be chosen. The most recent buy fractal at $608.64 represents an important support level, and if the market breaks below it, we should see a long-term downtrend develop. On the other hand, a move above $704.99 should see increased buying interest develop into a long-term uptrend.
The base (dark-red) and conversion (blue) lines at this timeframe have converged, suggesting neutral momentum. The Ichimoku cloud has also stopped trending higher but remains green. The most recent buy fractal lines up with the bottom of the Ichimoku cloud for mid-July onward. A break below this level then will give a strong signal of a downward trend forming. On the other hand, this zone could hold as support and could provide a good opportunity to buy, especially since this support zone lines up with the Bitcoin reward halvening.
If the cloud starts to turn red, then we will know that the opportunities will be leaning toward selling BTC-USD rather than buying. The market has seemed less interested in any major moves over the past few days as indicated at the bottom of the chart by the falling volume. This could be an indication that participants are waiting to decide the next long-term direction which will most likely occur with the halvening.
The shorter-term outlook is displayed below with the 4-hour price action on the BitStamp exchange. The most important thing to notice is that for tomorrow the Ichimoku cloud is relatively thin, suggesting weak support provided around the $660 – $650 zone. Therefore, we should watch out for a move through this portion of the cloud and below the cloud, which will signal the start of a downward trend. The base line is currently providing resistance at $672 and the market needs to establish a close above the base line to provide a bullish outlook.
The most recent buy and sell fractals lie at $640.10 and $682.36 respectively. Currently, the market is within this range and a break of either of these levels should see a pick-up in momentum. A move below $640.10 should expose further fractal supports at $621.09 and $608.64, whereas a break above $682.36 will see targets of $704.99 and $710.00. Volumes are falling at this timeframe and the market has established a close below the base line in the previous 4-hour session, providing a weak bearish signal. Consequently, the market is likely to tend toward fractal support at $640.10, as the current price is closer to the most recent fractal sell level than the most recent fractal buy level.