by Jamie Holmes
The market has respected Fibonacci ratios as it posted a high at $725 from a low of $572. It then retraced to $655 twice before continuing upward. Now the market is above the previous high at $725, suggesting it will now extend to at least the $819.55 level, which is a key Fibonacci level going forward. Bullish momentum in the markets is supported by higher volume on a day-by-day basis. Yesterday saw a net of 5,784 bullish contracts traded on the BitStamp exchange, whereas today it is much higher at a net of 13,575 bullish contracts so far. Rising volumes means that rise in BTC-USD’s price will follow as trends in volumes precede trends in price.
The chart below illustrates the 4-hour price action and indicates a bullish outlook for the long term as the market has broken the most recent fractal sell level at $725. The Ichimoku cloud is green and the price action is above the cloud, indicating buyers are in control. However, the conversion (blue) line has stopped trending higher and if this continues we could see the price action range between $750 and $725. We need the market to sustain above the fractal resistance-turned-support at $725 for a bullish outlook with a target of $819.55. A break below $725 should see a test of $700 and $688.89.
The shorter-term outlook is displayed below with the hourly price action of BTC-USD. The key fractal support and resistance levels are at $728.28 and $750.50 respectively. For a further extension upward over the short term, we should look for a one-hour session close above $750.50. However, those looking to short BTC-USD should wait for an hourly close below the fractal buy level at $728.28. A break above $750.50 should see the market extend to $765.00, an important fractal resistance level from January 2014. A break below $728.28 should see the market extend as low as the $690’s, with support provided by the Ichimoku cloud at the hourly timeframe.