by Jamie Holmes
BTCManager’s Weekly Cryptocurrency Outlook highlights the price action and technical indicators on a long-term basis to identify the best opportunities in the largest cryptocurrencies, such as bitcoin, ether, and others.
Bitcoin triggered the Bullish Saucer signal on August 8, breaking above $3339.66, and subsequently went on to establish a new high at $4400 on August 15.
Last week saw bulls dominate, but bears managed to push back, down from the high near $4200 and bringing the close to $4053.87, shown by the chart below.
The market attained our target at $4270.80, the first Fibonacci extension level. We look for a weekly close above $4270.80 to confirm a continuation of the long-term uptrend. On the other hand, support lies at $2980, the previous all-time high, and should provide strong support in the event of a prolonged pullback. Moreover, the conversion line (blue) also offers support at $3115, so we may see a test of this support before any further upside.
The daily timeframe is displayed below, with important supports standing at $3342.99 and $3178.72. The conversion line has held as support for August 15, at $3789.36. The market came within $15 of this critical support, posting a fresh low at $3800, but since then, buyers have managed to bring BTC-USD back above the $4000 handle.
Momentum is still indicated to be bullish by the Awesome Oscillator and the Ichimoku indicator. The conversion line may flatten out in the days ahead and give us an idea of where to place limit buy orders to get in on the uptrend. However, a daily close below the conversion line will point to a higher likelihood of an imminent test of the supports at $3342.99 and $3178.72.
On the 4-hour timeframe, the most recent fractal resistance lies at $4400, so we look to buy once this resistance is broken. On the other hand, a fractal support will form at $3800, suggesting short-term momentum will be skewed to the upside. Based on these fractals, we look to buy on a break above $4400, and sell on a dive below $3800, with a target of around $3350-$3200. A break above $4400 will see the market attempt our next target at $4730.74.
The weekly price action for ETH-USD is interesting, as it seems to present a bullish setup for next week, but the Ichimoku simultaneously suggests a weakening outlook.
Firstly, the positive side for ether bulls. Notice the Awesome Oscillator, which was red in color and falling in value for five consecutive weeks but this week it has turned green and begun to rise. This is known as a Bullish Saucer and sets up a buy signal for next week; that is, a limit buy at the high of the current week’s candlestick.
Once triggered, we should see ETH-USD invalidate the fractal resistance at $320 and drift toward the all-time high.
On the other hand, a failure of the bullish saucer signal may see ETH-USD dive lower toward $250 and $208, supports highlighted by the conversion and base lines. Notice that the conversion line is moving lower and looks to cross the base line, which would give a weak bearish signal. A fractal resistance is also potentially going to form at $320, so if ether does not manage to regain this level in the next fortnight, a longer-term downtrend will be confirmed. More clarity will be given at the end of the week, once the current weekly candlestick has formed.
Bitcoin Cash might be getting ready to make some large gains against bitcoin.
The daily chart below shows that the conversion line (blue) has moved higher on August 15, suggesting a short-term equilibrium around 0.0934. However, the market remains below an important fractal support at 0.0785. BCC-BTC must regain this level for a bullish outlook.
Once BCC-BTC regains the fractal support, we should look to target 0.0934, with a daily close above the conversion line providing a stronger bullish signal. Given that the conversion line is moving higher, and assuming it continues, we get an indication that the market will also head higher. Also, notice that the lagging line (purple) seems to have bottomed out and is also following the conversion line.
The 4-hour price action shown below indicates that we may see a bullish breakout for bitcoin cash on August 17. The chart shows that the red Ichimoku cloud is very thin for the entirety of August 17’s trading session; a thin cloud suggests very weak resistance, and if BCC-BTC is going to make some strong gains, it is very likely to begin on August 17. On the other hand, since the cloud is red and looks to be getting ready to move lower, we look to sell on a break of the most recent fractal support at 0.0675.
There are two main things to note from the weekly chart of LTC-USD. Firstly, this week’s price action looks to drop below the conversion line, potentially giving a weak bearish signal by August 21. Secondly, the market managed to break to a fresh high above $50, but this high may turn into a fractal resistance.
Notice that the preceding candlesticks have lower lows and lower highs. Therefore, if LTC-USD remains below $50.247 until August 28, we expect further downside, with the base line (red) providing an important support level at $29.60.
On the other hand, a weekly close above the conversion line, that is above $44.04, will keep the long-term uptrend intact. Furthermore, if we see LTC-USD break above $50.247 any time in the next two weekly trading sessions, this will give bullish confirmation. Finally, litecoin failed to close above the resistance at $48.20 last week and a weekly close above this level will also give a strong bullish signal and a reason to enter into a long position.
NEO displayed its largest ever gain in a single week against bitcoin, rising over 100 percent on large volumes, as Forbes‘ August 10 article put a spotlight on the project.
The weekly chart below identifies two possible areas of support where we look to buy NEO-BTC. Since last week’s action was dominated by bulls and the candlestick is almost a bullish Marubozu, we can use the open and 50 percent levels to find an entry to buy. The first support lies at 0.00844130 whereas further support will be found at 0.00493265. Also, notice that bullish momentum should strengthen, as the conversion line is moving higher above the base line and the Awesome Oscillator continues to move higher too.
The daily price action for NEO-BTC is shown below with a Dragonfly Doji looking to form for August 15. This doji candlestick pattern suggests that bulls will continue to dominate, as the low of August 15’s price action was very close to the conversion line, which provides support at 0.0092. If bears manage to take hold, we should see increased buying interest around the supports at 0.0089 and 0.0067. Alternatively, we look to buy once the market breaks the most recent fractal at 0.01199999 or with a daily close above 0.01190.
Monero showed some indecision last week, with a slightly bullish slant, posting a a two month high at $53.43.
However, bears tempered bulls back to $48 by the end of the week. However, like ether, we are seeing a potential opportunity for a long position for the week beginning August 21. Notice that the Awesome Oscillator is forming a bullish saucer, which will be confirmed on August 21.
Moreover, the conversion line has jumped higher compared to last week, suggesting the general market direction will be upward. We look to place limit buy orders near the conversion line at $40.71. A break above the recent high at $53.43 will also necessitate a bullish outlook; by invalidating the fractal resistance that is in progress, we should see an attempt to find a new ceiling by the market, with a further resistance at $58.14.
Finally, we can also examine this week’s candlestick close and compare it to $47.85 for an indication of the long-term momentum of XMR-USD. For instance, a closer higher than $47.85 means that is will be likely XMR-USD continues the upward trend. However, a weekly close below $47.85 could mean that the altcoin will display some weakness.
OmiseGo is a relatively new Ethereum-based token gaining a lot of attention from traders; when judging by the 24 hour volume, it is within the top ten cryptocurrencies.
The daily chart below illustrates a bullish outlook for OMG-BTC, as it looks as if another test of the Fibonacci extension level at 0.00203578 is due. Notice the flat conversion line has held as support. We could place buy limit orders around the conversion line and base line and target the Fibonacci levels at 0.00203578 and 0.00308076.
The altcoin ARK has displayed high volume over the past 24 hours, as well as compared to any other week, shown by the chart below.
At the time of writing, the trading volume for ARK is similar to that of Ethereum Classic and DASH. The weekly price action shows an interesting market structure, with just three fractals formed so far in ARK-BTC’s history.
Two are down fractals (supports) and one is an up fractal (resistance). Notice that the market has tested the fractal resistance at 0.00044206 so far; a sustained break or weekly close above this level will open up the first resistance at 0.00196608. Notice that this is the 50 percent level of the large bearish Marubozu for the week that Bittrex listed the crypto-pair. Given the relatively short history and that the lagging line has broken all of its resistances, 0.00044206 is the nearest resistance given the limited information that we have from the market price and its behaviour.
We also see that the conversion line has started to form an uptrend, moving higher this week. Since the market has remained below the conversion line since mid-June, it could be the week where we get the first close above this important support. However, the market may close a lot higher, given no prior resistances and the increase in the volume, so we suggest buying on a break of the fractal at 0.00044206 or once we get the weekly close, providing it is not too far away from the conversion line.
The top ten cryptoassets are shown below by market capitalization and 24-hour volume.