by Jamie Holmes
BTCManager’s Weekly Cryptocurrency Outlook highlights the price action and technical indicators on a long-term basis to identify the best opportunities in the largest cryptocurrencies, such as bitcoin, ether, and others.
Cryptocurrencies suffered large losses last week but important support levels have remained in place, suggesting the uptrend in most of the major cryptocurrencies is intact.
Bitcoin has moved below the base line (red) shown below on January 22, opening up another attempt at the 38.2 percent Fibonacci retracement at $9349.11, but we await the weekly close for more confirmation. Last week, the base line held as support and this week, if it holds again, then we should see momentum start to shift in favor of bulls in the market. On the other hand, a weekly close below $11,140.50 could see new lows.
One slightly bullish indication is given by the conversion line (blue), which is continuing to rise, suggesting the market will soon follow. The conversion line indicates short-term equilibrium at $14,333.
For three consecutive weeks, the Awesome Oscillator has remained red in color. Historically, this indicator has remained red for around three to five weeks, suggesting we should soon see the bullish saucer signal set up, and provide a nice entry to go long.
While setting up a bullish saucer on the daily timeframe, ETH-USD has made lower lows on January 22, reaching $913.24 on the Kraken exchange. At the time of writing, the price stands just below the $1000 handle.
We see that a bullish saucer signal has formed, and we await the trigger on January 23. Also, we see that the market has respected the Fibonacci levels, and anticipate an attempt at $1050.69 next. In the worst case scenario, support is found near $650, aligning with the green Ichimoku cloud.
The weekly chart below shows that the conversion line has held up so far as support at $998.44 and its relation to this week’s close is important for gauging future direction. If we see the week’s candlestick close below $998.44, the outlook is bearish. On the other hand, if the support remains intact, then this will be considered bullish.
The 50 percent and open of the bullish candlestick from the week beginning January 1 have remained intact too, suggesting the uptrend is still in play. Already this week, the $921.20 (50 percent) support has been tested and held strong. The bullish outlook is strengthened with a weekly close above the Fibonacci level at $1050.69.
Ripple looks to head below 0.00010 as the market tests the support provided by the conversion line, around 0.00011500. A daily close below the conversion line will open up the fractal support at 0.00008150. Also, when examining the Awesome Oscillator, we see that the bullish saucer signal failed, with the oscillator turning red today and looks to pierce below the zero threshold.
Bitcoin Cash looks to resume its downward trend as the market moves below the Ichimoku cloud. Supports are highlighted on the chart below. Bearish momentum will dominate as the base line has moved above the conversion line, and we see that the Awesome Oscillator is negative and red in color.
If the support zone between 0.136-0.145 does not hold, then we should see a drift toward the 0.100 psychological level.
Cardano’s cryptocurrency, ADA, looks set for further losses against bitcoin, as shown by the daily chart below. The trough of the lagging line (purple) shows support should be found at 0.00002628. Fractal supports also lie at 0.00004730 and 0.00004070. The conversion line is moving lower and the daily price action has made lower lows, indicating further downside is to be anticipated. A daily close below 0.00005150 will give a stronger likelihood of opening up the supports mentioned above.
Finally, the Ichimoku cloud looks to be in the process of changing color from green to red, as the upper span may cross over the lower span and result in a red cloud, giving another indication of an incoming downward trend.
The weekly chart below shows that the uptrend is intact for litecoin, as the market bounced from the support at $144.58 last week. However, there may be another test of this support and whether or not it breaks will be key to determining the future path of LTC-USD.
Another support is found just below the market’s current price, at the Fibonacci level around $171.934. Resistance is seen at $201.617 (base line) and $209.901. A weekly close above $144.58 or $171.943 will be considered bullish, whereas a weekly close below $144.58 will point to further downside.
The Awesome Oscillator remains red in color, but stays positive, meaning that a bullish saucer signal appearing in the next week or two remains a strong possibility.
By the end of January, a close higher than $186.84 (base line) should provide relief for bulls, whereas a monthly close below this level will indicate a long-term bearish outlook.
XEM-BTC rose faster than we anticipated, and now instead of sitting below a thin resistance zone, it not hovers above a thin support zone, as shown by the thin Ichimoku cloud in the chart below.
Last week, the market tested the Ichimoku cloud, which is fatter and provided stronger support, however from January 22 onward until early April, the cloud is extremely thin, suggesting a very weak support zone.
The key level to watch is 0.0000900, a fractal sell from July 2017. If the market manages to stay above this level, then the outlook is bullish for XEM-BTC, as the price action remains above the green cloud. However, a sustained dip below 0.0000900 will mean that XEM tries to find a new floor and establish a new fractal buy level, with the most recent way down near 0.00000831 from (early December 2017 low). Therefore, we could await the weekly close for more certainty, or sell on a break below 0.0000900.
The weekly price action for XLM-BTC is displayed below. The market has defended 0.0000400, closing just above this level on January 21.
Resistance lies at 0.00004563 and we await the weekly close before deciding on the next position; for example, a weekly close below 0.00004003 will open up the supports provided by the conversion line (blue) and upper span of the red cloud at 0.00002300. However, a weekly close above 0.00004563 should open up a test of the recent sell fractal at 0.00006370.
For the week ending January 21, monero managed to establish its highest ever close against bitcoin at 0.030771. The market sits just below the 0.0300 psychological level, with a fractal resistance at this handle too; a second weekly close higher than 0.0300 is required to maintain a bullish outlook for XMR-BTC. Support lies at 0.0244 in case the psychological handle is rejected.
The daily price action shown below opens up a possibility for a trigger of the bullish saucer signal on January 23. Notice that on January 22, the Awesome Oscillator has turned green in color and if tomorrow’s bar is green as well and higher in value, we would look to buy on a break of the January 22 high (currently at 0.03012799).
Support is seen at 0.0278, with a daily close below this level opening up the support at 0.0265 and recent fractal low. Moreover, more certainty will be given on January 22’s close, as the market is currently testing the conversion line (blue). A break of this support will present a weak bearish signal for the week ahead.
NEO showed an impressive gain for the week ending January 14, with the largest bullish candlestick since July 2017. Therefore, we can look to buy on the test of the 50 percent level of this candlestick and the open, at 0.009298 and 0.00626006 respectively.
The Ichimoku cloud is green in color, suggesting the uptrend is intact and the conversion line (blue) looks to move above the base line (red), which will indicate bullish momentum is starting to take hold. Notice also that the support at 0.00626006 aligns with the support zone provided by the Ichimoku cloud.
However, we also have a double top pattern, suggesting the market will look for a new floor.
For the week ending January 14, ETC-BTC closed above the conversion line (blue), giving the first bullish signal after a retreat over the long-term from the 2017 highs over the course of several months.
Ideally, this week we look to buy on a test of this support, which lies around 0.0024 and highlighted on the chart below. We see that the price action has made a double bottom and corresponds with a two troughs in the Awesome Oscillator; both suggest bears are becoming exhausted.
Notice, we also have bullish indications from the Awesome Oscillator, which has switched color from red to green recently and is trending higher, looking to move above zero. Moreover, the lagging line provides no resistance until 0.00418.
The flat upper span of the Ichimoku cloud is also another target for buyers around 0.005 and we look to market buy ETC-BTC this week (and/or set limit buy orders near 0.0024), with the target zone to take partial/full profit illustrated by the purple box below between 0.00418 and 0.00500.
Stratis displayed the largest daily gain against bitcoin on January 8, 2018, in over five months, the biggest gain since July 2017. STRAT-BTC has since tested the 50 percent level and moved below this support, with the open of the bullish candlestick providing support at 0.00104321, where we look to buy (shown below).
Momentum remains slightly bullish, with the Awesome Oscillator in the positive region. However, if the Awesome Oscillator switches to negative, then further downside is anticipated. In this case, we look or support around the Ichimoku cloud region, which is green and trending higher.
The weekly timeframe below illustrates support around 0.001 for the week beginning January 22, as shown by the conversion line (blue). The Awesome Oscillator (AO) shows that bullish momentum is imminent, with a move to the positive region anticipated. Last week, the market attempted to break resistance provided by the base line (red) but was pushed back from 0.00150 to 0.00115 at the time of writing.
A weekly close below the conversion line, i.e., below 0.001, will provide a bearish signal. Otherwise, we look for buy opportunities for STRAT-BTC this week, with the rising AO suggesting further gains over the course of the next few weeks/months.
The monthly view also suggests a strong likelihood of a bullish continuation for Stratis. The chart below shows that by February 1, a fractal buy level will form at recent low at 0.00033332 on the close of January’s candle, which is likely to be followed by the dominance of buyers and a rising trend for STRAT-BTC. Equilibrium on the monthly timeframe is suggested to lie around 0.0025, as shown by the conversion line below, so we expect the altcoin to test this resistance once the fractal buy level is confirmed.
The weekly chart of vertcoin against bitcoin is displayed below and shows that VTC-BTC could fall to around 0.00024 before bouncing higher and attempting the resistance at 0.00072626 again.
Notice the chart shows a series of five waves, with the third being the fastest and showing the largest rise during November, with the fifth wave complete by early December as the altcoin peaked around 0.00088; since then, we are seeing the market experience a corrective three-wave action, with an support area indicated by the Fibonacci retracement level (50 percent) aligning with the Ichimoku cloud and the open of the bullish candle from mid-November.
Alternatively, since last week’s candlestick is a variant of a bearish hammer, we may not see a move below the recent low at 0.00031501, so we could look to buy on a breakout above the Fibonacci level at 0.00045977, which currently provides resistance. Targets for buy positions should be the Fibonacci extension levels at 0.00072626 and 0.00115748.
Last week’s close at 0.00041323 serves as an important balance point; we look for further gains if the market manages to maintain above this level. On the other hand, a weekly close below 0.00041323 should lead onto the test of 0.00024 we are looking for.
A large upward move is expected by early March as Vertbase and Vertpig, two exchanges dedicated to vertcoin, should bring more volume to the altcoin, as most exchanges have stopped accepting new registrations. The Ichimoku cloud signals an equilibrium zone and we should see VTC-BTC return to this area over the long-term, i.e., there should be a drift to the 0.0005-0.0006 region by late April.