Cryptocurrency Market Outlook Mar. 13 (Bitcoin, Ethereum, Ripple, Bitcoin Cash, Litecoin, Cardano, Binance)
by Jamie Holmes
BTCManager’s Weekly Cryptocurrency Outlook highlights the price action and technical indicators on a long-term basis to identify the best opportunities in the largest cryptocurrencies, such as bitcoin, ether, and others.
The weekly chart below shows that the Awesome Oscillator has turned green for the week beginning March 12, which opens up the possibility for a bullish saucer signal for the week beginning March 19. For nine consecutive weeks, the Oscillator has remained red in color and switched (temporarily) to green last week before the market took a huge dive. We look to observe the Oscillator on March 19 to see if the color remains green and we look for another green bar to confirm the signal.
For this week, the conversion line has moved further below the base line, telling us that downward momentum is starting to gain strength. The supports indicated by the Ichimoku and fractals show that BTC-USD may extend as low as $8067.00 or even testing the most recent fractal support at $5920.72.
The conversion line provides resistance this week at $10,157.54 and a weekly close higher than this level is required to provide a bullish outlook for the weeks ahead. Otherwise, we look for the market to test support and head lower.
The daily chart below shows that BTC-USD is within equilibrium on this timeframe, sitting inside the Ichimoku cloud. A daily close below $9040.10 will generate a sell signal, that is, a close below the Ichimoku cloud for the first time January 16, when bitcoin fell by more than $2000 in a single day. If March 13’s price action is contained by the cloud, then we should look for a break of $9892.00. The $9892 level looks to be forming a fractal resistance, and the fractal is invalided if the market breaches the March 12 high before March 15.
So in short, if the market fails to break above $9892 by March 15, then downward momentum is likely to dominate, as BTC-USD looks for a new floor. Supports are highlighted in the chart below at $8522.99, $8366.00, $8067.00, $7588.01 and $6874.27. We also see that the Awesome Oscillator is negative and red in color.
On the other hand, if the market can breach $9892 in the next day or so, we should see the market test resistance provided by the cloud around $11,577. Another bullish indication is given the cloud itself, which has changed color from red to green in the past few days, which usually indicates an upward trend is to be anticipated. Therefore, we look to buy on a breakout of the cloud, i.e., a daily close above $11,577, if there is a daily close above $9040.10 on March 13 or alternatively, a break above the $9892 level.
Looking at the Renko chart (daily), we see that a downward trend is under way, with march 8 providing a sell signal once the first red Renko candle formed. The chart seems to indicate a move to $7,500 as the path of least resistance. A daily close above $11,249.76 is required for a trend reversal on the Renko chart, and provide justification to go long. If you are looking to short, the Renko chart tells us that your entry should be around $9374.80, so look for a bounce to near this level before going short (and target $7,500).
Nevertheless, the Awesome Oscillator suggests bearish momentum is weakening, as the indicator turns green and the bars are rising.
Finally, we look at the 4-hour timeframe. The Renko chart shows that BTC-USD is in a downtrend at the time of writing, with the most recent Renko candle a red one. A reversal to an upward trend is suggested once we observe a 4-hour session close above $9774.00. Moreover, the market is within the Ichimoku cloud and the cloud has changed color to green recently. Therefore, we wait for the market to form a new green Renko candle to go long.
The 4-hour standard candlestick chart below shows that the market is making higher lows as well as higher highs over the past four days or so. We see a bullish signal given by the lagging line (purple), which is moving above the previous price action. Immediate resistance lies at $9317.03 as indicated by the conversion line, and a 4-hour close above this level will increase the likelihood of a test of the Ichimoku’s upper span ($10,027). Therefore, we could enter a long position on a 4-hour close (if it is above $9317.03) and target the $10,000 handle.
The weekly chart for ether is displayed below and shows that the market is sitting just above an important support at $666.56. A weekly close below this level would open up supports at $556.00 and $430.77. Ether’s chart looks to be lagging bitcoin’s, with the conversion line yet to cross below the base line. Moreover, the Awesome Oscillator remains red in color, suggesting no sign of a potential reversal yet.
Looking at the daily chart, we see three key levels to keep an eye on. Firstly, supports levels lie at $680.70 and $641.10; a daily close beneath either of these levels will point to further downside for ETH-USD. Resistance is seen at $719.11 and daily close above this level should provide further impetus for additional gains.
The Renko chart (daily) shows a breakout to the downside, so ETH-USD is likely to continue to display red Renko candles. As long as the market stays below $704.60, we see ether heading lower. A daily close below $634.14 would strengthen the bearish outlook, with a fresh red Renko forming below the previous low. Support is indicated at $386.13, the July 2017 high.
Moving onto the 4-hour price action, we see that ether has been making lower highs and higher lows, suggesting some indecisiveness in the market. The key fractal levels are highlighted, at $715.78 and $677.00 respectively. A break above $715.78 should see an attempt at the $750 handle, while a break below $677.00 will expose the $600 psychological level.
For the Renko 4-hour chart, ether is in an uptrend but a reversal looks to be imminent. A 4-hour session close below $681.20 will see the formation of a red Renko candle, which will give a signal to go short. Support is seen at $576.40. On the other hand, if the market can sustain above $681.20, there is a chance that the green Renko sequence will continue, with resistance indicated near $900.
The weekly chart below shows that ripple has continued to exhibit losses against bitcoin and is nearing an important support. Two weeks ago, a bearish hammer formed, with the low at 0.00007738. This level could form a fractal support, providing the current week’s price action manages to stay above this level.
However, momentum has turned bearish as indicated by the crossover of the base line above the conversion line, so another important support we could watch is the open of the large bullish candle from late December 2017 at 0.00007180. Therefore, we could see a brief, temporary reversal once the 0.00007180 level is tested.
If these support levels fail to hold, then it is a long way down for the altcoin, with fractal support found at 0.00003450.
The daily Renko chart shows XRP-BTC has moved out of equilibrium and below the Ichimoku cloud, giving a bearish outlook. The most recent fractal support in the way now is way down at 0.00001274. A daily close above 0.00009555 is required for the Renko charts to paint a green candle and, hence, a reversal of the current downtrend.
The daily candlestick chart shows a potential bearish saucer signal setting up for March 14. The signal will be triggered March 14 the earliest and we look to enter a short once the market breaches the March 13 low at 0.00008348. Once the bearish saucer signal is triggered, we look to target the supports at 0.00007738 and 0.00006151. Also, notice that the market is now below the open of the relatively large bullish candlestick from December 29, 2017, suggesting that bulls have lost control. Therefore, if we remain below 0.00008727, expect the market to continue to head lower. If the market manages to regain 0.00008727, then we are likely to see a reversal.
The weekly chart for bitcoin cash shows that this week may provide a bullish signal. For example, consider the lagging line (purple) which could possibly move above the previous price action, and therefore, give a bullish signal. We require a weekly close above 0.13688 for the signal to be triggered. The conversion line provides resistance at 0.1466 for the week beginning March 12 and has moved lower compared to last week, suggesting downside for BCH is more likely.
On the other hand, support lies at 0.1118 and a weekly close below this level will expose the 0.1000 psychological handle.
The daily chart shows a more bullish outlook, with the price action for BCH-BTC closing above the conversion line on March 9. The conversion line, at 0.1148, now provides support. The base line provides resistance at 0.1303 and a daily close above this level will open up an attempt at the Ichimoku cloud.
The Awesome Oscillator is green, but remains negative, suggesting that bearish momentum is weakening. We look for the oscillator to cross above zero to be more certain of an upward move.
However, the daily Renko chart shows a downtrend is under way for BCH-BTC, with a test of 0.09682965 looking likely. A daily close above 0.12727602 will invalidate the bearish outlook and lead to the formation of the first green Renko candle since late February.
The 4-hour chart also shows BCH-BTC in a downtrend. Unless we observe a 4-hour session close above 0.12100002, then the bearish outlook remains intact.
The weekly price action for LTC-USD shows a bearish signal was given on the close of last week’s candle. The price action closed below the base line, signaling bearish momentum is beginning to take hold. The market currently sits just above Fibonacci support at $171.934 with another support found at $144.580. A weekly close below $144.58 will point to a large downward move for litecoin, as this support held during the massive sell-off experienced in late January/early February.
Therefore, we look to buy LTC-USD if the Fib. support at $171.934 is intact by the end of the week. Alternatively, we require the market to close above the conversion line by the end of the week, that is a close higher than $179.69.
Looking at the weekly chart of LTC-BTC, we see that the pair has retreated from its recent high near 0.0250 and has found support at the 38.2 Fibonacci level near 0.0178. Since then, we have seen the market test the 50 and 61.8 percent Fibonacci levels and we should see a continuation of the upward trend. Therefore, we could look to buy near 0.0192 (50 percent Fib. level), or successively on each break of each Fib. level.
The daily chart shows a much more bearish outlook, with LTC-BTC looking to break below the Ichimoku cloud. Important support zones are found at 0.01830-0.01810 and then 0.01490. However, if March 13’s close manages to stay above the conversion line (i.e., 0.0194), then we may see bulls manage to pull litecoin higher. A daily close below 0.0194 will be considered bearish and anticipate a test of 0.0180. Moreover, we see that the lagging line (purple) is moving below the previous price action, giving another bearish signal.
The Awesome Oscillator looks to turn positive after remaining in the negative zone since March 5. Once the oscillator turns positive, we could buy LTC-BTC in anticipation of a test of the 0.02000 handle and above. Since the price action is contained within the cloud, it may be safer to wait for a daily close either above or below the cloud before deciding on a position. A daily close below 0.0192 will indicate a bearish cloud breakout, whereas a daily close above 0.0192 may save litecoin bulls from feeling more pain.
Cardano has gone on to post more losses against bitcoin and has failed to find support at 0.00002766. Looking at the weekly chart, we see that since posting the all-time high at 0.00009180, the market has gone on to establish six near consecutive lower lows, suggesting in one to five weeks time, we should see ADA-BTC bottom out, as bears become exhausted. Remember, the near consecutive (or record high/low) rule states that after seven to ten near consecutive higher highs/lower lows, the probability of a reversal increases substantially.
If the market can manage to stay above 0.00002290 for the rest of the week, we may have the bottom in, as the lagging line looks to be forming a trough. However, we cautiously await the weekly close to confirm the validity of the trough.
The daily chart shows some more indications that the market has bottomed out. For instance, the conversion line has started to flatten out and we look for a daily close above this indicator to give further confirmation. A daily close above the conversion line should motivate a move toward the most recent fractal resistance, at 0.00003520.
On the other hand, a move below 0.00002177 will open up further losses and motivate a short position, with a move toward 0.00001000 the most likely destination.
Looking at the daily Renko chart, we see ADA-BTC is still in a downward trend and that a daily close above 0.00002760 is required to give a reversal signal. Regarding the next support level, the daily Renko suggests 0.00000690 is the only remaining support.
Ether Classic has hardly changed from the week’s open, but the outlook is bearish given that the market closed below the base line on March 5. Therefore, we could look to buy near the support highlighted below, i.e., at 0.00170 and 0.00130383. A weekly close above the base line (0.0027) will also motivate long positions. The Awesome Oscillator has turned positive, suggesting momentum is beginning to turn in favor of bulls.
The daily chart also shows a bearish outlook, with a move below the fractal at 0.00213501 looking imminent. A daily close below this level would open up 0.00179999. Notice that the lagging line has also broken below its previous trough, opening up further downside. The next support indicated by the lagging line is at the 0.0018 level.
The daily Renko shows a more bearish outlook, with a move toward 0.00148812 to be expected.
The big story of the past few days was the alleged Binance ‘hack,’ but the exchange responded swiftly and reassured crypto investors, which could be contributing to the bullish show of force for Binance’s own cryptocurrency (BNB).
The weekly chart below shows that since finding support near the 38.2 percent retracement level, the market has surpassed the 50 percent Fibonacci level, providing a bullish bias. Furthermore, the market has moved back above the base line (red) and if the weekly close is higher than this level, BNB will be a strong buy. The base line lies at 0.0010, and we need a weekly close higher than this to motivate a long-term buy position. The market has also tested the conversion line, providing resistance at 0.0012. Finally, we see a trough being formed by the lagging line, suggesting BNB-BTC bottomed out around 0.00086 last week.
The daily chart shows the market is attempting a cloud breakout, supported by a surge in volume. Resistances are seen at 0.0013239 and 0.0016160. We also see that the Ichimoku cloud looks to change color from red to green, giving another bullish signal. We get stronger confirmation if we observe a daily close above the cloud.
The daily Renko chart also shows that a reversal is under way for BNB-BTC, with a green Renko candlestick looking to form for the first time since late January. Therefore, we look to go long on BNB-BTC if the daily close is above 0.0010699, at which point the first green Renko candle will form after successive red Renkos.
The weekly chart shows the market is sitting just above support at $241.71, so we look to buy near this level. Further support is provided by the trough of the lagging line at $216.50. XMR-USD looks to close below the base line this week, giving a weak bearish signal. Nevertheless, the Awesome Oscillator remains green and continues to trend higher, although we are unlikely to get a bullish saucer signal, unless the market moves above $379.00 by March 19.
Buys at $241.71 and $216.50 should target the Fibonacci extension level at $374.09.
The daily Renko chart shows the current downtrend could extend as low as $190.65 and a daily close above $343 is required for a reversal.
The 4-hour Renko chart shows that XMR-USD is in equilibrium. A 4-hour close above $280.40 is required for a bullish reversal, whereas a bearish breakout is indicated with a 4-hour session close below $238.34. If the trend reversal is realized, we look to target the $360 zone. On the other hand, in the event of a bearish breakout, expect monero to sink to the $220 zone.
The market snapshots display the top ten cryptocurrencies by market capitalization and 24-hour volume respectively.