by Jamie Holmes
BTCManager's Weekly Cryptocurrency Outlook highlights the price action and technical indicators on a long-term basis to identify the best opportunities in the largest cryptocurrencies, such as bitcoin, ether, and others.
BTC-USD (Bitstamp): Bitcoin Limited by $1120
Bitcoin regained the $1000 handle after slipping below $900 temporarily last week. The market is currently trading just below $1050 and a weekly close above $1120.66 is required for a bullish outlook over the long-term. However, a weekly close below the conversion line (blue), that is below $1120.66, will see the market tend toward the support provided by the base line, around $977.
Also, notice that the Awesome Oscillator is signaling that bulls are beginning to lose control of the long-term momentum. The first red bar indicates that we should look to enter short positions at the low of last week's price action, at $891.33 with a target of $751.34. The oscillator has continued lower this week.
On the other hand, last week's close was below the base line (red), also providing a signal of bearish momentum. However, this week's price action looks to close back above the base line. Therefore, we look to buy BTC-USD if the week's candlestick closes higher than $977.49 with an initial target of $1120. However, a close below $977.49 will necessitate a bearish outlook for the long run.
ETH-USD (Kraken): Gyrates around $50, Preparing for Further Upside?
The weekly chart for ETH-USD is displayed below, with the altcoin gyrating around the $50 psychological handle. The market has still not reached the Fibonacci extension level at $55.02. Further resistances lie at $75.75 and $88.56 according to the Fibonacci extension levels. Therefore, we look to set limit buy orders at $52.99 with a target of $75.75 and $88.56.
If the market does not manage to break above the recent high at $52.89 then a fractal sell level may form and we will most likely see ETH-USD tend toward short-term equilbrium around $31.66, as indicated by the conversion line.
The 4-hour chart below shows the consolidation below $50 over the past few days, with $48 providing strong support. It seems to be as if the momentum is just about starting to turn in favor of bulls, as the Awesome Oscillator is red, but looks to be forming a trough. Also, the conversion line remains above the base line, suggesting bullish momentum is still in play. The Ichimoku cloud is thick and provides a strong buffer zone around $42 to $48.
Therefore, we look for a bullish breakout of the fractal sell level at $52.89.
XMR-USD (Poloniex): Monero Finding Support Around $18.60
The daily chart below shows that XMR-USD may be getting ready to test the recent high at $25.10. Notice the two most recent candlesticks are both long-legged Doji's, suggesting some indecision in the market, but with a bullish bias. Also, when examining the structure of the market, i.e. with the Fibonacci levels, we see that these two Doji's align with the 50 percent retracement level, suggesting that XMR-USD is finding support around $18.60 and will continue higher.
Consequently, we suggest limit buy orders at $20.14 and $22.13 with an initial target of $25.10.
On the other hand, limit sell orders are suggested at $18.50 with a target of $12.10.
The weekly price action is shown below along with the Ichimoku indicator. The support level for this week is indicated by the conversion line, which is flat at $18.26, signaling a great buying opportunity for XMR-USD. Also, notice that if the market remains above $18.46, the Fibonacci extension target at $27.28 remains valid. It is seen from the previous price action that when the conversion line flattens out, the market tends to test this support and then move on higher, for example, during July/August 2016 and mid-November 2016.
DASH-USD (Poloniex): DASH to Drift Toward $50
In our previous cryptocurrency market outlook, we highlighted that DASH-USD would retrace and test Fibonacci levels of support. Our sell signal was triggered at $91.84 and the market has reached a low of $75.50 so far this week. We anticipate further losses for DASH-USD as the weekly chart below shows declining volume. Also, the market should retrace to the 50 percent or 38.2 percent Fibonacci levels after failing to make any further gains above $117.80. Therefore, we suggest sell positions with targets of $63.00 and $50.07.
Also, it looks as if a fractal sell level will form at $117.80, which will encourage downward momentum as a resistance level is enforced. The fractal sell level will be confirmed by April 3 if the market remains below $117.80, which looks to be very likely, and DASH-USD will have to find a new floor, with the most recent fractal buy level at $8.20; providing plenty of leverage for a downward move.
XEM-BTC (Poloniex): XEM Retreats Back into Equilibrium
After breaking above the Ichimoku cloud, XEM-BTC has slipped back into equilibrium. However, XEM is most likely getting ready to jump higher and establish further gains. For example, the weekly chart below shows that the conversion line is moving higher this week, signaling the market will trend higher too.
Secondly, notice that the Awesome Oscillator indicates that long-term bullish momentum is still in play with the bars trending higher and green in color.
Thirdly, notice that the 50 percent level of the bullish Marubozu candlestick variant has held as resistance, with XEM-BTC posting a fresh low near 0.00001171, just above the important support at 0.00001140. Therefore, the uptrend remains intact and we expect another bullish Ichimoku cloud breakout.
However, a move below 0.00001140 will point to a reversal and possibly the end of the long-term upward trend. Since the market is within the Ichimoku cloud, a breakout to either the upside or downside is possible, but the relative position of the conversion line to the base line suggests that bullish momentum will prevail.
ICN-XBT (Kraken): Buyers Firmly in Control
ICONOMI announced March 28 that it would introduce a repayment programme, involving the "burning" of ICN tokens acquired from exchanges starting June 30. The repayment programme will give each participant a larger percentage share of the total ICN token amount. Up to 1000 ETH will be used from April 1 to June 30 to acquire ICN tokens from the market and then will be removed from circulation. ICONOMI Co-founder Tim Zagar stated that, "Reducing the circulation creates value in scarcity, and its a great way to reward our investors for their continued support."
Given the announcement from ICONOMI, it could be a great time to buy the altcoin. The technical outlook is displayed below with the weekly price action and also paints a bullish outlook for ICN-XBT.
Firstly, notice that buyers were in control for the entire seven days of the week beginning March 20, illustrated by the bullish Marubozu candlestick. To capitalize on any pullback, we set limit buy orders at the 50 percent and base level of this Marubozu candle, at 0.000356 and 0.000284 respectively. The market should respect these support levels, and if it does, the uptrend will continue.
Secondly, notice that the move higher is supported by increasing volume, foretelling further appreciation for ICN.
Thirdly, last week the price action closed above the conversion line, giving a bullish signal and indicating a higher likelihood that ICN-XBT will continue higher, suggesting that market orders should also be pursued in addition to the limit orders set out previously.
Finally, notice that the slope of the conversion line is becoming steeper, suggesting that momentum is starting to turn bullish.
A break of the fractal resistance at 0.000495 will give further bullish confirmation and limit buy orders are suggested at 0.000496. Also, entering buy positions as close to 0.000400 as possible is another strategy provided by the position of the conversion line(support provided by conversion line).
DCR-BTC (Poloniex): Decred Climbs up the Ranks
Decred was first identified by BTCManager in January 2016 as an altcoin that could be worth watching. The altcoin surpassed others to secure the number 10 spot on the list of highest market capitalized cryptocurrencies last week, but has since been tempered to number 12.
The chart below shows the weekly price action for DCR-BTC. The market has attempted to test the support provided by the conversion line around 0.0117 this week.
However, buyers have managed to step in and ensure that this support level remains intact. We await the weekly close of the current candlestick before deciding on long-term positions. If the market remains above the conversion line at the end of the week, we look to establish a long position, whereas a close below 0.0117 by April 3, we look to sell DCR-BTC.
Over the short-term, we look to buy at the support provided by the conversion line, around 0.0117, as there remains plenty of upside, with a strong possibility of several, near consecutive weeks of higher highs for DCR-BTC.
DOGE-BTC (Poloniex): A Weak, but Dependable, Bullish Signal
Dogecoin gave a weak bullish signal two weeks ago with a close above the conversion line, displayed by the weekly price action below. A close above the conversion line indicates that DOGE-BTC has bottomed out around 0.00000015 during late February and there is a higher likelihood of further gains. This week, the price action looks to break the resistance provided by the base line.
The chart below also shows that the Ichimoku cloud, which has remained red since September 2016, looks to be changing color with the emergence of a green Ichimoku cloud giving bullish confirmation.
Moreover, bullish momentum is strengthening, as indicated by the Awesome Oscillator, which has turned green in color and is trending higher. The chart displays the buy signal generated from the switch in the color of the oscillator, with long positions suggested at 0.00000024. Any long positions should be exited if the market moves below 0.00000016, while the anticipated reward is that DOGE-BTC will be attracted to the horizontal upper span of the Ichimoku cloud, as highlighted below.
Historically, after closing above the conversion line on the weekly timeframe, DOGE-BTC has increased anywhere between 0.00000050 to 0.00000100 units. For example, when this weak bullish signal was last given, during early January 2016 when DOGE-BTC was around 0.00000040, the crypto-pair surged to 0.00000137 in last week of January 2016. Also, once the conversion line was broken as resistance in May 2015, DOGE-BTC increased from around 0.00000048 to 0.00000099 in mid-June 2015.
Therefore, buy positions should look to target the upper span of the Ichimoku cloud, around 0.00000082, with entry near 0.00000024.