by Jamie Holmes
As the price of bitcoin moves into five-figure territory, Dash is pacing to new highs against the US dollar and nearing $1000. DASH-USD hit an all-time high of $815 on the Kraken exchange on November 29, displaying gains at a time when bitcoin suffered huge volatility and closed in the red. The altcoin also hit a new mileston; the largest ever monthly gain, with DASH-USD appreciating more than $500 over November.
$500 in One Month
Dash’s price has hit new highs above $800, marking November 2017 as the best perfoming month in the altcoin’s history. Starting the month off below $300, the altcoin is now trading near $770. The chart below shows the daily price action for DASH-USD on the Kraken exchange. With the price currently hovering just under $780, it is not a far stretch to $1000.
A $500 Gain for November
If the altcoin pushes into four figures, it will join bitcoin cash as the only other cryptocurrency in this category. Over the course of 2017, the positive correlation between the daily returns of bitcoin and dash have become stronger, as shown below. Nevertheless, the link remains weak, just above 0.30.
The Network Value to Transaction (NVT) ratio has been falling over the past few weeks, suggesting that Dash is becoming more cheaply valued per unit of on-chain transaction volume. The measure has been put forward as an analagous performance measure as the P/E ratio for company stocks. With the NVT falling, this suggests dash has plenty of room for further gains before coming ‘overvalued.’ Notice that the rising trend for the NVT during August to October 2017 corresponds with the falling price of dash, after experiencing a rally, over the same period.
There is some speculation that Dash may be the next cryptocurrency to be added to Coinbase, with the altcoin displaying a similar rally prior to Kraken listing the coin in April 2017; DASH-USD rose from around $33 to a high of $137 during March 2017. Another possible reason for the surge in interest is the increased exposure of cryptocurrency to the general public in recent weeks; for instance, Max Keiser promoted Dash as ‘digital cash’ complementing bitcoin as gold 2.0 during a televised debate on RT with economist Steve Keen.
DASH-USD Price Analysis
The 4-hour price action for DASH-USD shows that the green Ichimoku cloud is thinning and might change color to red, which will give the first indication of an imminent downward trend. The green cloud provides a support zone around $535 to $607 for December 2. Another important support is indicated by the conversion (blue) and base (red) lines, which both lie at $707.50 at the time of writing. Moreover, the Awesome Oscillator looks to have peaked, suggesting bulls will start to lose control of momentum in the next 4-hour trading sessions.
DASH-USD: Short-term equilibrium: $707.50, Long-term equilibrium: $534.84 to $606.23
The daily chart below shows the price action of DASH-BTC on the Poloniex exchange, which accounts for just under 10 percent of the entire DASH market, behind Bithumb’s DASH-KRW pair and Bitfinex’s DASH-USD pair.
On November 30, the price closed at its highest level since November 12, at 0.07568971, and regained the 50 percent handle at 0.06927324, giving a bullish signal. Notice that the 50 percent level of the large green candlestick formed on November 12, at 0.06927324, initially provided support. However, the market broke below this level on November 13 and provided resistance during the following two weeks.
The break of the resistance at 0.06927324 now means that this level turns into support again. The next resistance is found at November’s high, which is also a fractal sell level, at 0.087883600, indicated on the chart below. Also, November 30’s close was higher than the most recent fractal resistance at 0.07499, suggesting bullish momentum will begin to intensify in the days ahead.
DASH versus Bitcoin: Yet to Test the All-time High
The DASH-BTC market looks to be gearing up for further highs. We see from the chart that the volume on the Poloniex exchange is also increasing over the past week or so, suggesting more investors are becoming interested in buying DASH-BTC. Moreover, the Awesome Oscillator has turned green on December 1, setting up a potential bullish saucer signal in the days ahead, which will give further confirmation of an upward move.
The Market Facilitation Index (MFI) is pink for the price action for November 29 and 30, suggesting the market is getting ready to make a big move. A pink MFI indicates that the market is squatting before making a big jump with the buyers and sellers are evenly matched; a breakout is imminent.
Looking at the chart below, since there is more bullish bias with the current market structure and we have witnessed a pink squat, we look for DASH-BTC to test the recent high near 0.087, with a breakout of this level opening up an attempt at the Fibonacci extension level at 0.12078412. On the other hand, supports lie at 0.07531965 and 0.06754703.
DASH-BTC: Fibonacci Supports and Resistances
Looking at the longer-term price action, the weekly chart below illustrates the massive gains made by DASH against bitcoin over the course of 2017. In January, DASH-BTC traded around 0.015 before a bullish fever took hold of the entire altcoin market and helped to push the crypto-pair to fresh highs at 0.12415680 in March 2017. While the price of dash in dollar terms is was at all-time highs on November 29, the price in terms of bitcoin is still quite a way away from its all-time high from March 2017.
Long-term view of DASH-BTC