by Jamie Holmes
The long-term downward trend for ETH-USD has been cut short with the $10 level holding as strong psychological support. ETH-USD has benefited from higher volumes across exchanges and seen gains, trading above $12.00 at the time of writing . Coinbase is looking to add Ether direct purchases and its GDAX already trades in Ether. The timing of this announcement is being received well by the Ethereum community as it will reinforce potentially positive news of a successful hard-fork on July 20th to reverse the DAO hack.
Kraken also announced today that all ETH on its exchange will be tokens of the winning chain, which could further increase confidence in Ethereum. ETH-USD is currently up 3.8 perent on today’s open at $12.00, posting a fresh high at $12.69 on the Kraken exchange. The daily chart is illustrated below.
Yesterday saw a buy signal triggered as the market breached the most recent fractal sell level at $11.69885. Moreover, the market managed to close above the conversion (blue) line and is now sharply trending upward, indicating a higher likelihood of further appreciation over the long term. Finally, the lagging (purple) line has moved from below to above the Ichimoku cloud, which signals a rejection of downward momentum.
The market now looks to test previous fractal resistance at $16.08; this is also suggested by the Ichimoku cloud which lies just below this level. Bears in the market are now exhausted and the price should tend toward the equilibrium zone indicated by the Ichimoku cloud around $15.00-$15.70. Also, notice that the cloud is currently red but looks to be changing color as the lower span mirrors the uptrend in the conversion line. The base line at $12.6956 has been rejected so far, but a daily close above this level will signal a switch to bullish momentum and should see buying interest bid ETH-USD above $16.00. If the market sinks below the fractal resistance-turned-support at $11.69885 then this will invalidate the bullish outlook.
The 4-hour price action, displayed below, suggests that there will be a correction in response to the surge in ETH-USD’s price. Support will be found at the conversion line, currently at $11.775, and the base line at $11.494. The yellow ray at $12.69999 could form a fractal sell level if the price does not manage to break higher than $12.69999 in the next three hours. If a fractal resistance forms at $12.69999, buyers should wait for a breakout of this level for further bullish confirmation over the long-term.
The most recent buy fractal lies at $10.85003 providing support, lying just above the support zone illustrated by the Ichimoku cloud. A break below this level will expose $10.37. At this timeframe, bullish momentum is in play, signalled by the fact that the conversion line is trending higher than the base line. Moreover, the Ichimoku cloud is green, trending higher and will look to provide support if the market tends toward the cloud. Given that the market breaks the recent high at $12.69999, $14.13 and $16.46 will serve as targets over the medium-term.