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Ethereum Technical Analysis

Reading Time: 2 minutes by on January 15, 2018 Commentary, Ethereum, Price Analysis

Since late December, many crypto markets have been retreating or moving sideways as year end profits were booked. The author wrote about some of the risks and opportunities on December 22.

On December 20 with ether at $800 I advised clients to go long, with a target of $1085 by January 1, on the eve of the January 2 full moon.

The December 21 volatility I foresaw as a result of clashing trends resulted in an unexpected price breakdown. As a result, my $1085 target was not met until January 8. The first gain was 36 percent.

In the following chart, the yellow line is bitcoin and the blue triangle is its pattern, which will conclude at or before the January 31 super moon.

In this same chart, ether is rising in a diminishing triangle that will be resolved at or before the January 17 new moon 13/14 days before the super moon. To see how lunar cycles sync with financial markets, see here.

Elliott wave analysis is a neat way to see patterns. In this chart, the thirteenth and eighth consolidation candles formed a triangle composing wave two. Wave three was a nice 13 candle move to wave four, a sharp correction. Triangles and sharp corrections alternate within five wave Elliott patterns. A five to eight candle move higher on the January 17 new moon would make a nice fifth wave conclusion around $1500.

The drop in volume (white arrow) syncs with a fifth wave exhaustion move. An ether price drop from $1500 on rising volume at the January 17 new moon would make sense.  A 23 percent and 38 percent Fibonacci retracement would take Ethereum’s cryptocurrency back to $1040 and $840 respectively.

Selling Bitcoin for Ethereum and Back Again

In this chart can be seen the cost of ether in terms of bitcoin:

The yellow line is the ether price in USD.

Bitcoin passed the baton to ether with a buy signal on December 21, the winter solstice and the shortest day of the year. The long ETH-BTC downtrend was broken, heralding the bull run in ETH. The gain has been about 100 percent in 20 days. Now, ETH-BTC is almost at 0.1000, a resistance level shown by the purple horizontal line. Should this bull run continue, the target is 0.1500 for another 50 percent profit.

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