by Jamie Holmes
Litecoin breached the $60 handle on August 27, reaching a fresh all-time high against the dollar. Greater adoption, trading volumes and the rising fees on the Bitcoin network are all factors behind the surge, which has propelled Litecoin’s market capitalization above $3 billion.
LTC-USD is up over $11 on the Kraken exchange, rising more than 22 percent on August 27. Litecoin activated the scaling proposal SegWit in May 2015 . A lot of buying pressure may have been precipitated by Bitcoin’s recent SegWit activation, which opens the door for the Lightning Network and atomic swaps between the two cryptocurrencies.
Litecoin’s current bull run has been longer and more intense than the short-lived rise to $50.27 from $2.35 in November 2013. Financial commentator Max Keiser placed a $50 target on litecoin at the time, which has been tested since June 2017. The rise back then was also attributed to the rapid appreciation of bitcoin, with newly minted wealthy piling some of their digital riches into litecoin.
While resting on the shoulders of one exchange in 2013, the altcoin is now offered across major exchanges such as Bithumb, Bitstamp, and Coinbase.
Also, general adoption has also picked up since then, as well as becoming more widely available at Bitcoin ATMs.
One notable example is the Institute of Cryptoanarchy, which switched its recommended cryptocurrency from bitcoin to litecoin in June when fees paid for bitcoin transactions became “too similar to traditional banks.”
Interestingly, Charlie Lee stated amidst litecoin’s spectacular rise in November 2013, “If we don’t screw it up, litecoin will follow on the coattails of bitcoin. There will be more merchant adoption, and it will become less speculative and more useful.”
Over the past six months, the average fee for a bitcoin transaction has increased to around $8.00 whereas for litecoin, it has remained stable below $0.20.
An Attempt at $100?
Litecoin has experienced a stampede of buyers since March 2017, when LTC-USD was trading just below $4.00. Anticipation of SegWit saw a strong April for the altcoin, gaining almost $10. With an imminent close above the $50 psychological level for August looking likely, LTC-USD could easily attempt $100 next.
The chart below seems to indicate the market will leap toward the $100 psychological resistance. The weekly price action on the Bitfinex exchange shows that in June, the high at $39.11 was broken, leading to a fresh peak near $56. The Fibonacci tool shows that the market has now achieved the first Fibonacci extension level at $60.97 and the next resistance lies at $96.34. A further extension level provides a potential take profit zone around $131.72.
Bullish momentum is starting to gear up, as the Bullish Saucer signal is likely to be triggered the week beginning August 28. The Awesome Oscillator turned green and we look to buy near the high of the current candlestick ($63.70 at the time of writing) once the next week’s candlestick opens. A move above $63.70 next week will confirm the signal; there will be a high likelihood the market will make a move toward the targets at $96.34 and $131.72.
Furthermore, when looking at the monthly price action, we see that there is plenty of time for further upside for LTC-USD. Examining the chart below, notice that since the most recent fractal support at $3.00, there have been seven near consecutive higher highs.
The market is suggested to be exhausted once we observe 11 near consecutive higher highs, meaning at the earliest, we could see a reversal of the uptrend around December 2017. The longest the bull run can continue is until August 2018, using the near consecutive rule of thumb. The near consecutive count is only over when there are three weeks without a fresh high. The monthly chart also shows the largest bullish Marubozu ever for LTC-USD (further confirmation is given on the candle’s close).
While in dollar terms litecoin is at fresh highs, against bitcoin it is still below the 2013 high of 0.0482. The chart below from CoinMarketCap.com shows the price action since May 2013.