by Jamie Holmes
The price of monero has shot above $150 for the week beginning November 20 and is closing in on the all-time high at $159.90. Against the dollar, the altcoin is looking strong, however, against bitcoin, the value is still far off from the record high above 0.0300.
Monero (XMR) has been on an upward surge since early November, as displayed by the weekly price action below. The market bottomed around $81 before advancing through the Fibonacci resistance levels at $93.71, $109.33 and $128.66. The only resistance that stands in the way is the all-time high at $159.90.
With uptrend continuation confirmed after a break of the Fibonacci resistance, we could see bull momentum intensify on a break above $159.90. A move above the all-time high would suggest a long-term drift to the 161.8 percent extension level at $241.71. So far this week, XMR-USD has managed to climb as high as $159.00, just falling short of the fractal resistance from August’s rally.
The current weekly candle looks to establish the highest ever close in the cryptoasset’s history, which will give fuel for bulls in the weeks ahead. However, volume on the Kraken exchange has been falling over the past few weeks. Immediate support lies at the 76.4 percent retracement level at $128.66.
The weekly chart below shows that a close above $130.90 by November 27 will give a strong bullish signal for the weeks ahead, as the lagging line (purple) indicates no further resistance, opening up the Fibonacci level at $241.71 as the next significant sell zone.
Notice, also that the conversion line (blue) is continuing its upward trend, moving higher this week to $120.25 up from $110.75 in the previous week; this indicates that short-term equilibrium price of monero is moving higher and support will be found at $120.25. If the conversion line continues to display a positive gradient on November 28, this will give a signal that the market will continue in the same direction from November 28 to December 3. Another important support is provided by the peak of the lagging line (purple), as mentioned above, at $130.90.
Therefore, we could set buy limit orders around this level to take advantage of a downturn or pullback before an attempt is made at the all-time high. On the other hand, we can set limit buy orders just above $159.90 with a take profit level just below $241.71.
The monthly price action on the Kraken exchange is shown below and indicates that if by the end of November, XMR-USD is still above $142.10, we should see the bulls continue to exert dominance during December’s session too. The peak of the lagging line (purple) indicates resistance at $142.10 and given November’s candlestick closes higher, this will open up monero to more gains and look to top off the colossal gains made in 2017 by outperforming in December. However, if $142.10 is not cleared as we move into December, then the conversion line, which currently lies around $86, will provide an important support zone going forward.
Against bitcoin, monero is far off from its all-time high, suggesting some sort of coattail effect; as bitcoin pierces new highs in terms of the US Dollar, altcoin values in dollar terms are swept up along with the rising tide. Monero is not alone, with other altcoins such as Ethereum’s ether also approaching record high levels in terms of USD. Moreover, DASH is already following bitcoin higher, with the price reaching a fresh high of $581 on November 22.
The chart above shows the weekly price action for XMR-BTC on the Poloniex exchange. We look for a weekly close above 0.01850 for a bullish signal as this would be equivalent to a bullish Ichimoku cloud breakout. A bullish breakout of the cloud should see the market attempt the resistance provided by the base line (red), which currently stands at 0.0231.
On the other hand, a weekly close within in the cloud will point to uncertainty as to the direction of XMR-BTC. Once inside the Ichimoku cloud, a breakout to either side is possible.
The monthly chart of XMR-BTC is shown below, with a key resistance at 0.0187, as indicated by the peak of the lagging line. If November’s close is higher than 0.0187, then we should see the market unrestricted to the upside and proceed to test the fractal resistance at 0.035575. On the other hand, a monthly close below 0.01870 could see a test of prior support at 0.01056.