Have you noticed how making predictions have become the cool new thing in cryptocurrency? All these so-called experts one-upping each other with their bold thoughts about everything from bitcoin’s price to when the crypto bubble is going to burst.
I’d have to say that my favorite ‘shoot-from-the-hip’ pronouncement this year was cybersecurity pioneer John McAfee’s rant about the price of bitcoin reaching $1 million by 2020. Honestly, he could have left it at that. But, noooo, he had to disgust us all by tweeting that “he’ll eat his d**k if the bitcoin price does not” meet his bold prediction.
OK everyone, eyeball roll.
I believe it was the great baseball player, turned philosopher Yogi Berra who once said: “It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future.” And yet we’ve got troves of so-called ‘Blockchainocryptoexperts’ right now trying to impress us all by their so-called savvy predictions.
Whenever I hear these ‘experts’ make their latest and greatest view on CNN, in Forbes or on some other highfalutin media outlet, my favorite financial trader-philosopher Nassim Nicholas Taleb, immediately comes to mind. He is the author of the bestselling book ‘The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable,’ which introduces the concept of Black Swan occurrences as a way of predicting economic and stock market crashes.
Taleb believes that much of what happens in history ensue from these dynamics; very large, random, unpredictable (outlier) events, while much of what we usually bloviate is pure noise. He says therefore that our track record in predicting events is dismal.
Our inability to make predictions in environments subjected to Black Swans, says Taleb, coupled with a general lack of the awareness of this state of affairs, means that many experts, while believing they are such, are in fact not. He says that he has no time for the “charlatans” of the world who think they can guide the future.
What’s funny about all of this is that Taleb himself has been cautioning readers for years about making predictions, yet he been making quite a few of his own of late, particularly about bitcoin.
Speaking of making prediction below are my eleven ‘who cares if I get them right’ predictions for 2018. Sure I’ll likely be viewed as a hypocrite, but so what. Outlandish premonitions are fun and tend to be a lightning rod of attention. And my esteem certainly needs a boost after getting so many things wrong about crypto in 2017.
- Coinbase, already teetering on tilt mode due to an unprecedented demand for its services, will experience a major Black Swan event in 2018 creating a tsunami effect on global crypto markets,
- The government in multiple countries including the U.S. will pursue aggressive crackdowns ICO’s leading to a chilling effect on token campaigns,
- Amazon, Virgin Group, and Starbucks will be among a handful of major companies that will issue their own proprietary digital currencies replete with reward and incentive platforms,
- A significant user experience disaster will occur on a major crypto site, fueling fervent debate on how customer service is delivered across the global crypto ecosystem,
- The infighting between BTC and BCH for market dominance will reach a fever pitch leading to an even more divided Bitcoin community. We will begin to see the delineation and coexistence of two camps; BTC for long-term investment and BCH for everyday commerce and transactions,
- Waves platform will rocket to a top five position among cryptocurrencies in terms of market cap,
- Web-based apps will become a fall back alternative amid Apple move to ban all but a half-dozen crypto apps,
- Ongoing code vulnerabilities will be exposed on Ethereum leading to a loss of confidence in this platform as a business enterprise solution. That plus a precipitous decline in price will put this project in peril,
- Dash will emerge as the prominent P2P digital currency solution amid continued controversy about its protocol,
- New crypto solutions will emerge addressing issues such as Economic Development, Medical and Educational Savings Accounts, and Retirement Strategies,
- Two individuals in the crypto community and their projects who are destined to have a breakout year in the crypto space; Andre DeCastro of Blockchain of Things and Gene Kavner of iPayYou.
And what about your predictions. Feel free to comment below or on our BTCManager Telegram page.