“Past sell-offs were followed by rallies of ~150 percent within 84 days”: Tom Lee remains Bullish on Bitcoin
Many proponents of cryptocurrencies have often been bummed out about the general lack of interest among key U.S. stock market strategists to issue bitcoin price targets. However, the only major strategist from Wall Street who does it regularly seems to have continued betting on the most valued virtual currency in the world (by market cap).
In his third such report since bitcoin’s downfall from a mid-December peak, Fundstrat’s Tom Lee has reasserted his optimistic outlook about the fate of the coin. If the name doesn’t ring a bell, Lee was J.P. Morgan’s top equity strategist before he co-founded Fundstrat Global Advisors back in 2014.
Lee, who is currently heading the research division of the organization, announced his latest forecast following a heavy day of selling on February 1, 2018.
Worth noting that the Wall Street strategist’s optimistic forecast coincided with bitcoin’s worst performance in recent weeks, having dipped below the psychologically key $9,000 per token value on February 1, 2018. Though on next day, i.e., the morning of February 2, the price further plummeted to just around $7,695, which is 30 percent lower compared to the previous week.
Concerns surrounding the potential price manipulation at a major crypto exchange and the likelihood of stringent regulations have fueled a cryptocurrency sell-off spree in January.
However, in his new report, Lee didn’t hesitate to stick his neck out predicting that bitcoin will bounce back to $20,000 by the end of the first half of 2018 and then go all the way up to $25,000 by the end of the year.
His prediction is by and large based on five similar cycles of drops and recoveries “of similar magnitude” since mid-2016.
“Past sell-offs were followed by rallies of ~150 percent within 84 days,” Lee said, adding, “In other words, we think the risk/reward at these levels warrants adding here, even if there is additional downside.”
Additionally, the strategist also took cues from the bitcoin futures market. He pointed out in the report that contracts for the coming months are all indicating toward a “contango” or higher prices. According to him, that much positivity would be enough prompt investors to hold bitcoin and trade away the futures contract.
That’s in stark contrast with all the negative sign of a “backwardation” over the past several weeks. During that period, futures contracts for three months out signaled further drops in bitcoin prices.
On a related note, Lee is expecting Ethereum’s ether to go as high as $1,900 by the end of 2018, while the forecasts for ethereum classic and neo stand at $60 and $225 respectively.