Predicting Bitcoin’s Monumental Growth
A coalition of data was recently published which projects super high ceilings for BTC-USD. Using historical data, a number of different sources, including Business Insider, trends indicate the arrival of a million dollar bitcoin between 2019 and 2027.
A Wealth of Information
Medium user Ju5t Jeff published an article on October 22 titled, “The Million dollar bitcoin post” in which he has collected data on bitcoin from a series of sources. He opens with his own predictions using an algorithmic chart, which also includes two more of the halving events that will happen before 2024. The data is staggering and points out that the idea of a $1 million bitcoin is not nearly as far fetched as sensationalists promote.
Initially, Ju5t Jeff used the work of cryptocurrency data researcher Willy Woo to make baseline predictions:
It is optimistic and bullish, but nonetheless mathematically (and historically) accurate. It also provides the foundation for which the rest of the post’s research is developed. Moreover, when the above data was published, Willy Woo was using a compound interest of 4.5x, however Ju5t Jeff reels this figure in. Even after using the more accurate figure of 4x, as well as beginning at bitcoin’s historic bottom channel, the trend still predicts a massive $2.19 billion within the next 10 years.
It should also be noted that historical trends do not necessarily indicate future ones. The collection of data since the inception of the currency, however, is intriguing in its fundamental accuracy.
100K by 2020
Another prediction, which was slightly adjusted by Business Insider in August, was the work done by filbfilb using TradingView in the same month. He based his work on blockchain.info data and outlined that bitcoin would reach $100,000 by 2020, if it maintains its exponential growth. His work extends from the creation of the currency until now and makes use of the following regression:
y = 1.5492e0.0031x
R² = 0.8083
For reference purposes, the exponential growth of bitcoin is based on Moore’s Law, used typically for describing the advancement technology. Dennis Porto, a bitcoin investor, told Business Insider that, “Any technology that is growing exponentially (i.e., ‘following Moore’s law’) has a doubling time.” Normally, this applies only to computing capacities, but as bitcoin correlates directly to these same capacities, the data has indicated a similar response in price.
An article by Money Morning published in 2016, established that bitcoin delivered an annual return rate of 82 percent. Though this rate may have to be slightly adjusted for current trends, the conclusions using the rate mentioned by Money Morning also reveal large amounts of growth.
Major Moon Math
A Reddit post on October 2 broke down the projected growth rates over the long- and short-term. The findings are also positive and indicate the a $1 million bitcoin could come as early as 2019:
The massive amounts of work conducted by members of the Bitcoin ecosystem all point to generally unhampered amounts of growth. Naturally, the data is interesting in its mathematical rigor, but the volatility of bitcoin may still hold a few surprises.
It’s also important to keep in mind other international factors which may be responsible for swallowing up the currency’s bullish run.
Russia’s frequent and often contradictory announcements in regards to legitimacy, followed by its intention of releasing a national coin, prove just as volatile to economic trends. China’s stance on regulation and censorship have also proven effective in disrupting growth. In America, the words of Jamie Dimon have caused dips in price, if only to spark a buying spree by JPMorgan.
Despite all this, bitcoin still touched a record high of $6,187 on October 21 and a market capitalization of $100 billion. These figures suggest the intrinsic power of the currency, as well as its relevancy in the 21st century global economy. To what ends this relevancy achieves, only time will tell.