by Jamie Holmes
BTC-USD is currently up just 0.09% on today’s open as the market tried to extend below fractal support at $420 — but the market has rebounded with the price currently at $421.40. Immediate resistance is found at $421.91 and a daily close above this level will provide a long-term bullish outlook.
The chart below shows that BTC-USD broke above the psychological $420 level earlier this week, posting a high at $422.90 on the BitStamp exchange. The market has more recently moved lower and looked to test the support provided at the base line which has held as strong support so far. Sellers managed to momentarily take the market as low as $418.21, forming a fractal support. The base line currently stands at $419.50; a 4-hour close below this level will see the market look to move below the Ichimoku cloud. Buyers should look for a candlestick to close above the conversion line which is currently providing minor resistance at $420.50. This will provide a strong bullish signal and see the market look to test the fractal resistance at $422.90.
The fractal structure of the market favors a bullish outlook as the chart displays six buy fractals providing key support levels and only four sell fractal providing key resistance levels; therefore, the structure of the market suggests an upward trend.
Also, notice that the most recent buy fractal at $418.21 is higher than the previous buy fractal at $416.61; with higher lows this suggests a bullish outlook. The relative strength index also looks to be finding support around the equilibrium value of 50. If the index starts to trend below 50, then this would justify a move below the equilibrium zone indicated by the Ichimoku cloud and see the market test lows around $414.42.
The long-term outlook is illustrated below with the daily chart. The most recent fractal level is indicated on the chart and shows that the market has closed higher than the most recent sell fractal. Therefore, the market looks to tend toward fractal resistance at $427.99. The relative strength index is trending upward and above 50, suggesting bullish momentum. On the other hand, the conversion line has moved lower closer to the base line, and the Ichimoku cloud has become very thin for early May, suggesting weak support or resistance at this level at that time period.
A bearish outlook is only validated over the long-term if we have a daily close below the conversion line or base line at $415.79 and $415.66 respectively. Also, an early indication of an extended downward move will be given if the Ichimoku cloud, which is currently green, changes color to red. The chart above also indicated an upward trend from the fractal structure of the market; the chart displays six buy fractals acting as resistance in red and only five sell fractals in green acting as resistance.