by Jamie Holmes
ETH-USD has bounced upward after testing the $13.00 psychological level today and has started to move from above to below the Ichimoku cloud at the hourly timeframe, suggesting that bears are now in control of the market. ETH-USD is down 0.22% on today’s open on the Kraken exchange and is currently trading at $13.69. The chart below illustrates the hourly price action and shows that the market has now moved below the Ichimoku cloud, suggesting that a downward trend could start to develop. Moreover, the Ichimoku cloud has changed color from green to red and has started to trend downward, both of which forecast a downward move in ETH-USD.
Bearish momentum is indicated by the relative positions of the base (dark-red) and conversion (blue) lines since the base line is trending higher than the conversion line. These liens are currently offering minor support around $13.50, and an hourly close below these lines will provide a strong bearish signal and see another test of the psychological $13.00 level.
Resistance is provided by the Ichimoku cloud around $13.90 and could provide an optimal entry into a short position. However, we should look to get into long positions in the short-term if the market manages to break above the Ichimoku cloud and then to remain above $13.92. The most recent fractal sell and buy levels are indicated on the chart at $13.92 and $13.01 respectively. For bearish momentum to dominate, we should look for a break below $13.01 which would see bears target $12.42 and $12.11. On the other hand, a break of $13.92 should see buyers attempt to take the market as high as $14.39.
The longer-term outlook is displayed below with the daily price action in ETH-USD. The market could be forming a fractal buy level today with a low established at $13.01 and could provide a critical fractal support going forward. A daily close above the fractal resistance at $14.399 is required for ETH-USD to test the $15 level going forward and possibly establish a new all-time high. On the other hand, a failure to sustain above the fractal resistance at $14.399 could see the market plunge as low $10.29, the most recent fractal support at the daily timeframe.
However, the risks are more skewed to the upside since the market is above the Ichimoku cloud, suggesting buyers are in control and also the conversion line is trending above the base line. Bearish momentum would only start to dominate over the long-term if we see a daily close below the conversion line, currently at $12.34, and the base line which is currently providing support at $12.03.