Saxo Bank has predicted that bitcoin will continue its rise in price into 2018, reaching the $60,000 mark and exceeding $1 trillion in market capitalization, before China and Russia bring the coin tumbling down to $1,000 in 2019, back to prices seen earlier in 2017.
“The rise of bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies has been one of the most spectacular phenomena of financial markets in recent years. Bitcoin will continue to rise – and rise high – during most of 2018, but Russia and China will together engineer a crash,” the Danish bank predicts.
The bank has made predictions in the past, correctly predicting that bitcoin would triple in price from $700, back in early 2016 but did not account for the astronomical 19x increase in the price of bitcoin during 2017, with $20,000 still a strong possibility.
It is normal for markets to go through bull and bear cycles, so it is logical to expect bitcoin to at least go through a minor correction, which is typically influenced by external situations such as the crash of Mt. Gox, when Bitfinex lost bitcoin, or when a country issues a negative statement regarding bitcoin or cryptocurrencies in general.
As of lately, nothing has really deterred Bitcoin’s growth, and assuming the trajectory stays the same; it is possible to see a three times increase of bitcoin within the year. While crashes of massive scale have occurred, a drop from $60,000 to $1,000 would be a decrease in value of 98.33 percent or a value that is only 1.67 percent before the drop.
While the cryptocurrency has seen some crazy drops in the past, the probability of that occurring, especially considering how big bitcoin has grown in the last few years regarding community, volume, and market capitalization seems highly unlikely.
For example, China in the past has cracked down on exchanges as they suspected they were being used to funnel money out of the country, and while bitcoin dropped in price for a little bit, it has since bounced back and is stronger than ever.
Both China and the US have started to look into ICO’s seriously, and price, as well as public sentiment, remains strong. Russia has issued no regulations regarding cryptocurrency yet, but President Vladimir Putin has ordered the government to start regulating by July 2018, which historically, is where bitcoin starts to rally.