by Jamie Holmes
Vertcoin (VTC) has pushed to a one-month high, attempting the $5.00 handle on February 20 as cryptocurrency markets rebound and bitcoin regains $11,000. The altcoin has been buoyed by an update on the open-source miner for AMD GPUs(which has long been absent), the re-opening of account registrations on Bittrex and anticipation of the VTC-dedicated exchanges Vertbase and Vertpig.
Outlook for VTC-USD
The 8-hour chart below shows that VTC-USD is beginning to show a bullish trend. On February 15, the price action closed above the Ichimoku cloud, giving an indication of an uptrend. For February 20, the Awesome Oscillator displays a bullish saucer with the signal triggered in the most recent 8-hour trading session with a move above $4.8253. We also see that fractal resistance lies at $4.9921 (Feb. 17’s high), where a close above this level for a 8-hour trading session will give further bullish confirmation. Therefore, we should look to buy as close as possible to $4.8253 and/or await confirmation of a break of the fractal at $4.9921.
VTC-USD (8-hour, Bittrex)
Using the Fibonacci tool for the most recent Elliot wave (defined as a movement between a buy/sell fractal and the next sell/buy fractal), we see that the first two extension targets lie at $6.2532 and $8.2938. Therefore, we should target these levels for any long positions.
Looking at the Ichimoku cloud, we see that it has turned green and is starting to trend higher, giving us an indication of the bullish trend in place. Moreover, the conversion line (blue) and base line (red) are both starting to trend higher in the most recent 8-hour sessions, suggesting the market is gearing up to leap higher. An 8-hour close above $4.8239 will open up $5.5978 as indicated by the lagging line (purple). The peaks of the lagging line provides resistance levels, with $5.59 the next peak after $4.8239.
VTC-USD (8-hour, Bittrex)
Further resistance is seen at $6.3927 as indicated by another peak of the lagging line. We also see that volume has been rising over the past seven 8-hour sessions on the Bittrex exchange for VTC-USD, suggesting that the move higher is justified.
On the daily chart, we see that the market is attempting to test the resistance zone provided by the red Ichimoku cloud. The upper span of the cloud provides a sell zone near $6.68, and we anticipate a test of this level in the upcoming week. Also, we see a reversal signal, with the lagging line (purple) moving from below, to above, the previous price action. Finally, we see that momentum has turned bullish in recent days, with the Awesome Oscillator crossing into the positive zone and remaining green in color.
VTC-USD (1-day, Bittrex)
The conversion line (blue) provides support at $4.09 for February 20 and can be used as a trailing limit buy order to get in on the ongoing uptrend. For instance, if the conversion line moves up to, say, $4.20 on February 21, we move our limit buy orders up higher to the conversion line, just in case the support is tested.
Outlook for VTC-BTC
Against bitcoin, vertcoin has established a three-day high at 0.00045216 on February 26 and looks to continue to make gains. The 4-hour chart below shows a large influx of volume for the most recent 4-hour session and the market looks to close above the base line (red), which will give a strong signal of bullish momentum. Furthermore, another bullish signal looks imminent, with the conversion line (blue) about to cross above the base line.
A break of the fractal resistance at 0.000046011 will open up the long-term resistance at 0.0007262, the Fibonacci extension level from the monthly timeframe. We also see that the green Ichimoku cloud is starting to fan upward, giving a signal of a continuation of the uptrend.
VTC-BTC (4-hour, Bittrex)
The long-term view shows that for the week beginning February 26, we should get a bullish saucer signal for VTC-BTC too. Therefore, as soon as the current week’s candle closes, we should be ready to enter into a long position once the high of this week’s price action is breached. At this moment, we could prepare by sending coins to an exchange in anticipation of the bullish saucer signal being triggered.
Once the bullish saucer signal is triggered (at earliest on February 26) on the weekly timeframe, we should see vertcoin return to its former glory and approach highs seen toward the end of 2017. The Alligator indicator shows that the mouth is closing, and we also look for a weekly close above the mouth (red), just above 0.00046, for the bullish case to strengthen.
VTC-BTC (Weekly, Bittrex)
Once this week’s candle is closed, we observe the high of the weekly candlestick that has just closed, and buy on a break of this level during or after February 26.
The author is a long-term vertcoin holder; please do you own research before investing in cryptocurrencies. Technical analysis is probabilistic and you should always do your own analysis before making any decisions in the cryptocurrency market.