by Jamie Holmes
BTCManager's Weekly Cryptocurrency Outlook highlights the price action and technical indicators on a long-term basis to identify the best opportunities in the largest cryptocurrencies, such as bitcoin, ether, and others.
BTC-USD (Bitstamp): A Breakout Awaits
The daily price action below shows BTC-USD is within equilibrium, as the market is trading inside of the Ichimoku cloud. The price of bitcoin reached a low of $1111 on April 5, safely above the lower space of the Ichimoku cloud at $1100, with the bulls managing to push the price higher to $1128.51 at the time of writing. We also obtain a neutral bullish signal on April 5, as the conversion line (blue) crosses above the base line (red), which indicates that bullish momentum will start to dominate. Therefore, we anticipate a breakout above the Ichimoku cloud, with the market looking to jump above $1200.
A daily close above $1162.50 will point to a bullish Kumo breakout and justify long-term buy positions for bitcoin. The first target will be the most recent fractal resistance, which lies at $1260.00. On the other hand, a bearish breakout of the Ichimoku cloud will expose the recent fractal support at $891.33. A daily close below $1114.35 will indicate a bearish Kumo breakout and justify long-term sell positions.
The Awesome Oscillator also has a bullish bias, suggesting a breakout to the upside is more likely. The indicator is trending higher and looks to cross above the zero threshold, which will confirm bullish dominance. For example, notice how the Awesome Oscillator moves above zero a few days before February 1, which gave a clue that BTC-USD would regain the $1000 pschological level.
The weekly price action for BTC-USD is displayed below, with the conversion line holding the key to the future price action. The market has so far this week broken the key resistance level at $1220.655, but this week's candlestick needs to close higher than this level to give a strong bullish signal and point to a test of the fractal resistance at $1350.00.
On the other hand, a weekly close below $1220.655 will point to further loses and see the market tend toward the supports provided by the base line, at $981.06, and the most recent fractal support at $891.33. The Awesome Oscillator moves lower, indicating a strong chance that the conversion line may hold as resistannce. However, the indicator remains in positive territory, suggesting that bullish momentum remains in the driving seat.
ETH-USD (Kraken): A Retrace to $30.99 on the Cards
ETH-USD reached a plateau last week, peaking just below the Fibonacci target of $55.02 at $54.97. As the market has fialed to reach the target and has since moved lower, we draw the new Fibonacci levels, linking the swing low point at $7.01012 to the fresh all-time high. Normally, we see an asset test the 50 percent or 38.2 percent retracement level before continuing the uptrend or entering into a downtrend. Therefore, we look for a move toward $30.99, the 50 percent retracement level.
The higher retracement levels, such as the 76.4 percent one at $42.65 act as entry signals into short positions for ETH-USD. For example, we would set a limit sell order just below $42.65 and $36.65 with targets of $30.99 and $25.33. In the event that ether moves above the $54.97 level, the Fibonacci analysis above is invalidated.
LTC-USD (Poloniex): Breaks the $10 Handle, Eyeing $15.04
Litecoin breaks the $10 handle as the activation of SegWit draws closer and on increased inflow of volume. On April 5, the signaling threshold for the update surpassed 70 percent for the first time, at 70.83 percent at the time of writing.
The 4-hour price action below shows that LTC-USD broke the $10 handle on April 5 and has achieved the first Fibonacci extension level at $10.87. Litecoin now trades at $11.48 at the time of writing, opening further Fibonacci extension levels at $15.04, $19.21, and $21.79. The chart also shows a huge influx of volume in the preceding 4-hour trading session, even higher than that which occurred on March 30.
Looking at the weekly timeframe below, we see that LTC-USD faces resistance at $12.00. A weekly close above $9.99 will indicate bullish momentum continuing over the long-run. A close above $12.00 would also give stronger confirmation. Notice last week's candlestick formed a bullish Marubozu, signaling the dominance of buyers. Important support levels at the base and 50 percent level of this candlestick are found at $4.07 and $6.21, which should see buying interest if revisited in the future.
XMR-USD (Poloniex): Uncertainty in the Market
Last week saw indecisiveness amongst players in the XMR market, with the weekly timeframe displaying a bullish Doji below. The market tested the support provided by the conversion line at $18.26 but was rejected, close closer to $20. The conversion line remains flat again this week at the same level and should provide support going forward. However, a weekly close below $18.26 will justify a bearish outlook over the long term. The Awesome Oscillator has a bullish bias, as the indicator continues to move higher and remains green in color.
The short-term outlook for XMR-USD is displayed below by the 4-hour Renko chart. Notice that a bearish Renko candlestick seems to be forming, which gives a potential entry into a sell for XMR-USD once confirmed. A Renko will form if the price is below $19.49 at the close of the next 4-hour trading session. Therefore, we look for the first bearish Renko to enter sell positions in XMR-USD, with the market likely to target the fractal support shown below at $18.31. Further targets lie at $17.80 and $17.35.
On the other hand, if XMR-USD manages to regain the $20 psychological handle, we should see a continuation of the bullish Renko candlesticks. This will be confirmed with a move above $20.67, the high of the most recently formed Renko candlestick. Therefore, we could place limit buy orders above $20.00 and $20.67 with a target of $23.62.
DASH-USD (Poloniex): Reaches Fresh Low Sub-$50, Market Rebounds
As stated in our previous cryptocurrency market outlook, DASH looked to be drifting toward the $50 handle. The market formed a fresh low at $44.90. DASH-USD has since rebounded to $73.39 at the time of writing. While it looks as if this week the market will close above the conversion line and base line, which would provide a bullish signal, last week's price action formed a bearish Marubozu. Therefore, key resistances lie at $75.13 and $93.49. A failure to close higher than $75.13 this week will point to further losses for DASH.
Also, notice the curvature of the Awesome Oscillator; it seems to be the tipping point, with the peak reached and the curve turning from concave to convex, suggesting that bears will start to fight for contrl over the market's momentum.
XEM-BTC (Poloniex): A Bullish Breakout Points to Further Gains
XEM-BTC has jumped above the Ichimoku cloud again, prompting a bullish outlook. Also, the fractal sell level that was forming at 0.00001678 was invalidated. Also, notice that this week's price action displays higher highs and higher lows as compared to the previous week, suggesting the uptrend is still intact. The red Ichimoku cloud is also contracting, getting ready to change color to green, which will provide another bullish signal. Now that the market is above the cloud, we should see upward momentum dominate. Therefore, the most recent fractal resistance at 0.00002798 is exposed and XEM-BTC should drift toward this level over the long run.
Also, the Awesome Oscillator indidaates that bullish momentum is strengthening, as the oscillator moves higher and remains green in color. Notice that steep upward slope of both the conversion line and base line, also pointing to strong bullish momentum over the following weeks. The lagging line (purple) is also testing a critical resistance, as provided by the base line. Therefore, a close higher than 0.00001540 will point to further gains for XEM-BTC in April.
DOGE-BTC (Poloniex): Preparing for Further Upside?
DOGE-BTC followed through on the buy signal as outlined in our previous cryptocurrency market outlook and reached a fresh high at 0.00000061. However, as indicated by the Ichimoku cloud, this could be just the beginning of a new long-term upward trend. The Ichimoku cloud has successfully changed color from red to green, giving a strong signal that an upward trend is forming.
Also, bullish momentum is suggested to be in control, as the market closed higher than the most recent fractal resistance last week. The market managed to end the week at 0.00000047, higher than the fractal resistance at 0.00000037. The fractal resistance, now turned into support, at 0.00000037 has been tested so far this week but has held firm, pointing to further gains for the altcoin.
In another display of shiting momentum, the conversion line (blue) and base line (red) have converged and are moving higher together, suggesting a bullish crossover is underway. Once the conversion line moves above the base line, we get another bullish signal which should foretell of appreciation in DOGE-BTC. A bullish outlook is only invalidated if the price action closes below the conversion line.
Also, notice that the lagging line (purple) has moved above the previous price action, providing another bullish signal for DOGE-BTC. As long as this week's candlestick closes above 0.00000033, the lagging line will remain above the previous price action and this signal will remain valid. Taken together, we anticipate DOGE-BTC to be attracted toward the horizontal upper span of the red Ichimoku cloud, that is around 0.00000080.