by Jamie Holmes
BTCManager's Weekly Cryptocurrency Outlook highlights the price action and technical indicators on a long-term basis to identify the best opportunities in the largest cryptocurrencies, such as bitcoin, ether, and others.
The weekly chart below shows that for the run up from $891.33 to $2980, BTC-USD displayed 11 near consecutive higher highs, suggesting that what we are seeing now is some consolidation for another bullish run extending above $3000. The current count of higher highs will end this week at 11 if the market remains below $2980, which will start a new count and refresh bulls in the market. After three sessions of no new highs (or lows), the near consecutive count is restarted. The low from last week at $2291 will serve as the new low point and we would count this week’s high as the first of a potential 7 to ten.
The Ichimoku cloud also suggests further upside for bitcoin, as the conversion line moves sharply higher compared to the previous week. The conversion line indicates that support will be found at $2267.19.
Notice also that for the move from $891.33 to $2980, we have an Elliot wave as there are no fractals between these swing low and swing highs points. Therefore, we can place the Fibonacci retracement tool over this upward move to understand the current structure of the market.
We have seen BTC-USD test the 61.8 percent retracement level at $2182.13, so could we be ready for a move higher and a break of $2980. It looks to be a strong possibility, as the market has since regained the $2487 level, which should now act as support. The only resistance remaining according to the Fibonacci ratio is the previous high at $2980. However, we do not anticipate a break of the all-time high this week.
On the monthly timeframe, we have only witnessed nine near consecutive higher highs suggesting that we could see the bullish run extend for another one or two months at least. The count on the monthly timeframe is only invalidated if BTC-USD fails to break above $2980 by the end of September.
The weekly chart below shows that while during ether’s spectacular rise from $83 to $408, the resistance at $284.37 was broken easily, the market has settled below this key level, painting a bearish outlook. The next Fibonacci support lies at $207.55.
When looking at the Ichimoku indicator, it suggests two important support levels at $237.49 and $207.07, so we look to buy around these areas this week. However, a weekly close below $237.49 will give further bearish confirmation, potentially lead to a move back below $200. The lagging line may also give a bearish signal this week, as a weekly close below $276.81 will confirm a break of the support illustrated by the trough in the purple line.
On the other hand, the conversion line (blue) and base line (red) are likely to hold as support, given that the conversion line continues to trend higher, suggesting the market direction will be up this week and in the immediate future. Consequently, we look to buy on a breakout above $280 to $284.37, as the next Fibonacci resistance lies around $408.
Looking at the monthly price action below, we see that the Ichimoku supports our view that ETH-USD will head toward $200 before going higher. For instance, the conversion line below remains flat, suggesting a short-term equilibrium at $205.45. Therefore, we should see ether tend toward this level, find support, before moving higher.
Therefore, a sell looks to be more promising with a target around $207. A weekly close below $276.81 will give further bearish confirmation and will see the market attempt supports at $237.49 and $207.07.
The weekly chart below shows that since breaking the resistance at $28.67 in early June, the price has been attracted to the next Fibonacci extension level, posting a fresh high at $52.00 on July 4. The move above $50 also invalidated a fractal sell level forming at $49.47, the previous local high achieved toward the end of June. Therefore, we should see the market attempt the resistance at $56.47 next, with a further target to the upside at $89.12.
Taking an even longer-term view of LTC-USD, looking at the monthly timeframe below we see that only six near consecutive higher highs have formed since LTC-USD established a fractal support at $3.36 in December 2016. Using the rule of thumb of ten record highs until market exhausts itself that would tell us, at earliest, a peak in the long-term bullish run will occur in November 2017.
Against bitcoin, the outlook for litecoin also looks bullish. The monthly price action for LTC-BTC on Poloniex shows that although June’s candlestick failed to close above the base line, the Awesome Oscillator has continued to trend higher and remains positive, suggesting bullish momentum will prevail. However, further confirmation is needed for a higher likelihood of a test of the resistance region between 0.0284 and 0.0322. A close above the base line at 0.0171 for July is required to give a stronger signal of bullish momentum and traders could set limit buy orders around this level to benefit from a pullback.
Alternatively, we could enter by market as LTC-BTC breaks the 0.020 psychological level, the highest the crypto pair has been since mid-2014, as the lagging line indicates the next resistance lies at 0.0284 and is above the previous price action.
The conversion line (blue) has moved higher for the second consecutive week for XMR-USD and provides support at $43.49, suggesting a bullish outlook for the weeks ahead. The lagging line (purple) tells us that another key support lies at $42.84, whereas the peak of the lagging line reveals resistance at $57.74. Since the market price is closer to $42.84, we should see monero move higher toward the Fibonacci extension level at $49.26 and potentially the resistance at $57.74.
However, volumes traded on Kraken have fallen in recent weeks, suggesting dwindling interest in the crypto pair. Nevertheless, the time at which the market is most boring is the best opportunity to get into a trade and we recommend a long position, especially if this week’s price action remains above $43.49. On the other hand, a weekly close below $43.49 will open up the support zone at $34.88 and $35.79.
Since the end of May, XEM-BTC has retreated from its high and now sits around 0.00006800. However, the tide may be turning and bulls may start to exert control again. Using the Fibonacci retracement tool, we see that the 38.2 percent retracement level was tested in the same week as the all-time high. Also, we see that a fractal support may be forming at 0.00005913, as long as the market stays above this level until July 16. Once confirmed, we enter into long positions on XEM-BTC as the pair will most likely test resistances at 0.00007133 and 0.00008749.
Notice that the conversion line continues to trend higher, suggesting the market will follow too. However, a weekly close above the base line (red) is required for stronger confirmation. Failure to close above the base line this week will weaken the outlook for XEM-BTC and see a test of the support which lies at 0.00005516.
Ether Classic (ETC) has been tempered from its June high above $20 and currently trades around $17 on the Poloniex exchange. The weekly price action is shown below and suggests, like ether, will see more downside before moving higher. Specifically, the conversion line could be a good point to enter into the ongoing uptrend, which provides support at $14.30. The base line also provides support at $12.31, key levels to watch as the week closes out.
The key fractal levels for ETC-USDT are also displayed on the chart below. The most recent fractal support lies at $13.13 and a sustained break below this level will see the market move below the $10 handle. On the other hand, a break of $23.49 will open up fresh highs near the psychological levels of $25.00 and $30.00.
The monthly price action for ETC-USDT, shown below, illustrates that equilibrium lies around $11.87 as indicated by the conversion line. A test of this support looks likely for July and could also be another key entry point for those wishing to go long on ether classic.
Namecoin displayed its strongest month ever in terms of volume with a huge increase in buy orders on the Poloniex exchange for the month of June. Higher volume points to further appreciation for the altcoin in the months ahead. Even though we witnessed a surge in buying interest, NMC-BTC failed to close the month above the conversion line, which provides resistance at 0.0011. A monthly close above 0.0011 for July will give stronger bullish confirmation and open up resistance at 0.0025, as indicated by the base line (red).
Alternatively, we could exchange bitcoin for namecoin at market price, given it is above 0.0011, and hold for the long term, as the technical indicate that a bottom has most likely formed (trough in the lagging line (purple) complete and price looking to move above conversion line).
Peercoin acts like a twin to namecoin, in terms of its price action, as it is also showing a similar outlook. The month of June saw extremely high volumes for the altcoin, supporting a move higher. PPC-BTC, like NMC-BTC, did not manage to close above the conversion line, so we wait for July’s candlestick to give further confirmation. Alternatively, we could buy PPC on the market with bitcoin as long as the pair is above 0.0010.
The base line lies at 0.0021 for peercoin, providing a target to take partial profit back into bitcoin. Also, notice another similarity with namecoin; the long-term momentum is turning bullish, as the Awesome Oscillator (AO) looks to make the switch from negative territory to positive values. We buy in anticipation of this change in momentum, however, note that trading before the signal has occurred is riskier and you may want to wait for confirmation, that is when the AO turns positive.
Here are the top ten cryptocurrencies by market capitalization and volume for the past 24 hours: