by Jamie Holmes
BTCManager's Weekly Cryptocurrency Outlook highlights the price action and technical indicators on a long-term basis to identify the best opportunities in the largest cryptocurrencies, such as bitcoin, ether, and others.
The weekly price action for BTC-USD is shown below, where the market reached a fresh high at $1623.01 on the Bitstamp exchange. Buyers controlled the week’s price action, as the candlestick closed near the high at $1554.01 but below the $1600 handle. However, bitcoin has moved quickly toward the Fibonacci target at $1719.97 and provides resistance. A break of this target opens up the Fibonacci extension level at $2318.63.
ETH-USD’s weekly price action is displayed below, and a flash crash occurred on Kraken, taking ether as low as $30, as traders tried to take profits and the exchange experienced difficulties. However, the market has regained the $84.61 Fibonacci level and should provide support going forward. Resistance lies at $132.58, the 261.8 percent extension level.
Litecoin reached the first Fibonacci extension level at $25.88 last week and closed higher around $30.84. The market now should tend toward the second Fibonacci extension level at $39.68 with SegWit activation occuring on May 10.
The cryptocurrency behind the NEM blockchain, XEM, soared to fresh highs last week, with bulls pushing the price even higher on May 8. This has pushed XEM into the top five cryptocurrencies by market capitalization, displacing dash and just one place behind litecoin.
The weekly price action for XEM-BTC is shown below, with the market breaking the Fibonacci level at 0.00004352 last week and closing around 0.00006270. So far this week, XEM-BTC has reached the Fibonacci extension level at 0.00009380 but has since retreated low. Immediate support lies at 0.00006866.
It looks as if the market is gunning for the Fibonacci extension level at 0.00010933. The steep upward gradient of the conversion line (blue) and base line (red) suggest that bullish momentum is extremely strong.
DASH-USD completed a bullish saucer pattern in the Awesome Oscillator last week, which opens up a potentially profitable long position if DASH moves above $116.29. It is suggested to place limit buy orders around $116.30 to take advantage of the bullish breakout. Using Fibonacci analysis, it is likely that such as breakout would see a long-term move towards the 161.8 extension level at $185.54.
On the other hand, we can set limit sell orders just below the support provided by the Fibonacci retracement level at $91.94. A break below this level will open up the supports provided by the conversion line (blue), at $81.35, and the base line (red), at $63.005.
The Ichimoku indicator suggests further upside is more likely, as the conversion line (blue) moves higher relative to last week. Also, the Awesome Oscillator remains green and trends higher this week, suggesting momentum is more skewed in favor of bulls.
Last week saw ether classic reach a fresh high against bitcoin at 0.005488, but sellers managed to push the ETC-BTC to 0.004391 by May 7, resulting in a bearish inverted hammer candlestick pattern for the previous week. Also, notice that the peak of last week’s price action is just below the 50 percent resistance level provided by the variant of the bearish Marubozu candlestick on the launch of ether classic on Poloniex.
Therefore, downward momentum is suggested to dominate and we anticipate ETC-BTC to test support provided by the conversion line (blue) 0.0033. As a result, we can set limit buy orders around this level to take advantage of the pullback. However, a weekly close below 0.0033 will point to a bearish outlook for ETC-BTC over the long run.
Further support lies at 0.0024, the peak of the lagging line (purple), which also could provide a good buying opportunity.
Stellar’s cryptocurrency Lumen (XLM) soared to fresh highs last week, experiencing immense buying interest and was the top volume altcoin pair against bitcoin on Poloniex for some time over the weekend.
The chart below shows the weekly price action for XLM-XBT on the Kraken exchange. After posting a fresh high at 0.00004420, the market has retraced to the 50 percent Fibonacci level and found support. The market currently stand just below resistance at 0.00002781. A break above this level should see the uptrend continue. A break above 0.00004420 will open up the Fibonacci extension level at 0.00007072.
Also, for the first time on the weekly timeframe, last week saw the lagging line (purple) move above the previous price action, giving a long-term bullish signal. The conversion line and base line both provide support around 0.00002274, where the weekly close needs to be above this level to maintain the bullish outlook.
Monero broke to fresh highs on the Kraken exchange, achieving the Fibonacci extension level at $34.88. However, buyers were only able to bring the close to $31.73 for last week. Nevertheless, it is the highest weekly close ever for XMR-USD. ALso, as the chart below shows, the conversion line (blue) continues to move higher, providing support around $27.05, suggesting that the uptrend is not over yet. A break above $34.88 should open up the further Fibonacci level at $49.26.
Kraken saw the highest volume in a week since mid-March last week, supporting the move higher and foretelling of further gains for the altcoin.
A weekly close above the resistance provided by the lagging line (purple) at $31.7312 will give further bullish confirmation and open up targets at $34.88 and $49.26.
Peercoin displayed strong gains for the week beginning May 1, establishing a fresh high at 0.00167620 after showing a bullish Ichimoku breakout on May 1. The fractal resistance at 0.0014 was also broken with last week’s price action, suggesting that bullish momentum will intensify. The next targets lie at the next fractal sell level at 0.00177 and the flat span of the Ichimoku cloud around 0.00237.
Namecoin is following Peercoin and the technicals are very much similar, with both altcoins rising in tandem and trading at a similar price.
Dogecoin has reached our target at the upper flat span of the Ichimoku cloud and managed to establish a bullish Ichimoku cloud breakout last week. This confirms that an uptrend is in place, as earlier confirmed by the change in color of the Ichimoku cloud from red to green.
The bullish breakout opens up fractal resistance at 0.00000137, the high from 2016. Also, we see from the chart below that the lagging line (purple) has moved above the Ichimoku cloud along with the price action, giving strong confirmation of an upward trend over the long term Finally, the previous week’s price action also broke the most recent fractal resistance at 0.00000061, suggesting bullish momentum will remain in control.