by Jamie Holmes
BTCManager's Weekly Cryptocurrency Outlook highlights the price action and technical indicators on a long-term basis to identify the best opportunities in the largest cryptocurrencies, such as bitcoin, ether, and others.
A buy signal has been triggered this week for BTC-USD at $1252.42, and suggests that upward momentum will dominate. The Awesome Oscillator displays a bullish saucer, with two red bars followed by a green bar which is higher than the middle bar but shorter than the first bar. To take advantage of this signal, we would have set limit buy orders at $1252.42 at the start of this week. The buy has been triggered suggesting that upward movement will remain intact.
The market will now look to break the fractal resistance at $1350.00. However, those with long positions should be wary of any change in market behavior around the fractal at $1350.00. Also, a move back below $1252.32 will point to a change in momentum, with support found around the conversion line (blue) at $1120.66.
The weekly price action below also shows that buyers were in complete control last week, bringing the price from $1162 to $1241.99, with small wicks on either side of the candlestick.
A further buy signal will be given at the end of this week if the market manages to remain higher than $1273.00. Notice from the chart below that $1273.00 corresponds to a peak in the lagging line (purple). A peak in the lagging line indicates a key resistance. Once the market breaks the resistance at the peak of the purple line, there is no historical resistance ahead, leaving plenty of room to the upside for BTC-USD. With no lagging line peaks providing resistance, we should see bitcoin test the all-time high.
The Market Facilitation Index is brown this week, suggesting a ‘fade,’ which means that little action is expected this week and excitement in the market is dwindling, However, boredom often precedes big moves and the technicals indicate that this potentially big move is more skewed to the upside. The $1252.42 seems to be a key balance point, and where the price is higher than this, we suggest that the market is gearing up for further gains.
The weekly price action for ETH-USD is displayed below. Last week, a bullish Doji candlestick was formed, indicating indecision in the market. There are two indications that the upward move in ether is over and we may see some retracement.
Firstly, notice that the Awesome Oscillator has switched color to red from green and has started to move lower. Secondly, over the past six weeks, we have had four near consecutive ‘fades,’ as indicated by the brown dots of the Market Facilitation Index. Several ‘fades’ next to each other indicate that fading excitement in the market is building a base for a new move. Targets for a fresh downward move lie at the 50 percent retracement level $30.99 and the 61.8 percent retracement level, $36.65.
ETH-USD is currently attempting to break the $50.00 handle, which forms a key resistance and balance point this week. Notice that the peak of the lagging line (purple) forms resistance at $50.00. Therefore, a close higher than $50.00 at the end of the week will point to further gains for ether whereas a close lower than $50.00 will give bearish confirmation.
Litecoin just missed our target of $17.37, establishing a fresh high at $17.35 last week on the Poloniex echange, as shown by the 4-hour price action below. Equilibrium as indicated by the Ichimoku cloud is suggested above $14.00 and provides an important support zone going forward. The market also looks to be closing above the conversion line (blue), which is providing resistance at $15.71, potentially providing a bullish signal and entry into the longer-term uptrend. Notice that the previous fractal support is accompanied by a ‘squat’ in the market facilitation index, as well as the prior candlestick, suggesting that the market is preparing for further upside in anticipation of SegWit activation, which should lock-in during the next couple of days.
The weekly price action is shown below. Since a new high was established, we can draw the Fibonacci retracement levels. Also, the conversion line (blue) is flat, suggesting the market may retrace to around $10.45 before heading higher.
The Market Facilitation Index indicates a ‘fade,’ this week; traders are no longer interested in establishing long positions and market momentum is building for a new move. Also, it is relevant that the 'fade' is preceded by a 'go,' when more volume was incoming and new traders interested in getting in on the market's direction. Potentially, the market could retrace to key supports at $14.09, $12.08, or $10.45, before continuing higher. On the other hand, a break above $17.35 would point to further gains. A second Fibonacci extension level provides resistance at $25.88.
The weekly price action for dash against bitcoin is shown below. Resistance provided by the base line around 0.0671 looks to push the market lower toward the fractal support at 0.0345. A short position is recommended just below 0.0565 with a target of 0.0345, as bearish momentum will intensify.
For instance, the Awesome Oscillator moves lower and remains red in color. Also, when DASH-USD retreated from lows around 0.0345, we see two consecutive weeks with a blue Market Faciliation Index, known as ‘fakes,’ signaling the market was manipulated higher, not driven by incoming traders or volume.
Finally, notice the huge decline in volume on the Poloniex exchange, suggesting declining interest in trading Dash. Equilibrium as indicated by the Ichimoku cloud lies around 0.0167, which could a long-term target for short positions as well.
On April 20, ETC-USD broke the fractal resistance at $3.15, pointing to further gains and a potential move to $4.53. Since then the market has moved higher, closing in on the Fibonacci extension level.
— BTCMANAGER (@btc_manager) April 20, 2017
As the weekly chart below shows, bullish momentum is strengthening, as the conversion line (blue) is above the base line (red) and is moving higher with a sharp gradient. Lots of volume supported this move higher. However, momentum may switch near the resistance at $4.53. On the other hand, a clean break of $4.53 will open up a further target for buyers at $6.60.
XEM broke to fresh highs last week, reaching 0.00003490, but sellers managed to push the price back below the previous all-time high at 0.00002798. However, so far this week, the market has drifted back above this key Fibonacci level, and a break of 0.0002798 once again points to further gains, with XEM-BTC eyeing the Fibonacci extension level at 0.00004512, as displayed below.
A weekly close higher than 0.00002798 will give further confirmation, but by that time, it may be too late to go long on XEM-BTC. The Market Facilitation Index indicates a fade but has a bullish bias since the market is above a key Fibonacci level. Also, notice that the market is currently testing the a psychological resistance at 0.00003000. Once the market clears this level, this should also give further bullish confirmation.
The move higher last week was also supported by higher volume, suggesting the upward move is justified and will not fizzle out. The Awesome Oscillator also indicates that bullish momentum has strengthened relative to the previous week.
After several weeks of ‘fades,’ in the market, a big move down may be imminent for XMR-USD. Also, the Awesome Oscillator suggests that bearish momentum is beginning to start to fight back against bulls, with the indicator moving lower this week. Short-term equilibrium is suggested to be around $18.35 by the conversion line (blue) and a further support level is found at the base line (red) at $14.76. We suggest limit sell orders at $20.69 targeting these two support levels.
On the other hand, limit buy orders are suggested at $22.91, with an initial target of $25.10. Alternatively, we could set limit buy orders at the supports levels provided by the Ichimoku indicator at $18.35 and $14.76.
NXT-BTC has displayed a bullish breakout this week, moving above a key fractal, with huge potential to the upside. For instance, see the weekly chart below. This week, NXT-BTC has broken above the most recent fractal resistance at 0.00001920 and a weekly close above this level will give further bullish confirmation. A break of this key fractal will open up the 0.00005989 resistance, which is the next most recent fractal sell level.
Momentum indicators are also signaling a shift in momentum favoring further upside. For example, notice that the Awesome Oscillator has moved into positive territory recently and that the conversion line and base line have converged. Finally, the lagging line (purple) has moved from below to above the previous price action, which was accompanied by a pink 'squat' for the Market Facilitation Index; this indicated that the market was squatting before jumping higher (as supported by the AO and Ichimoku), giving a bullish bias to this week's 'fade.'
The flat upper span of the Ichimoku cloud should also be targeted for long positions, that is around 0.000032. The market should be attracted to this level, given that NXT-BTC remains above 0.00001920.