by Jamie Holmes
BTCManager’s Weekly Cryptocurrency Outlook highlights the price action and technical indicators on a long-term basis to identify the best opportunities in the largest cryptocurrencies, such as bitcoin, ether, and others.
BTC-USD closed above the $3000 handle on August 6, with the weekly candlestick setting up a nice buy signal for this week.
The Bullish Saucer pattern is confirmed with a break of last week’s high occurring this morning, $3339.66, and will propel bitcoin to fresh highs near $4270 over the long-term. Notice that historically when the Bullish Saucer is triggered, we have seen a large appreciation in the following weeks. Also, notice that the near consecutive higher high count is only at three at present, suggesting we could see the bullish run last until mid-September, at the earliest.
Last week’s price action also closed higher than the fractal resistance at $2980.00, giving another indication of bullish momentum.
Looking at the daily chart below, we can get in on the ongoing uptrend by buying at the conversion line, which provides support at $2999.84. A sell position is only validated if the market moves below the low of the “three up” green cnadlesticks, indicated on the chart below. We look to sell below $2765.91, with a target of $2400.
Ether has also crept higher on August 7, up over 1.5 percent against the US Dollar on the Kraken exchange. The price of ether currently stands around $270, testing an important resistance at $269.88, as indicated by the conversion line (blue) on the weekly timeframe. A close above this level for the current candlestick will open up the all-time high at $404.98.
However, if resistance at $269.88 holds and this week’s close is lower than this level, then the market will tend toward the support provided by the base line (red) at $208.07.
The daily chart shown below illustrates a switch from bearish to bullish momentum. Consider the Awesome Oscillator, which has turned positive in recent days. Also, we see for August 6, a bullish Ichimoku breakout occurred and now that the price of ether is above the cloud, we should see further upside over the medium term. A close above $271.40 for August 7 will give further bullish confirmation and open up fractal resistances at $324.50, $381.10, and $404.98.
Litecoin may dip lower and test the conversion line at $38.68 before going higher, as indicated by the flat conversion line. A weekly close below $38.86 will point to a bearish outlook, however, the risk is more weighted to the upside. For example, consider the lagging line (purple), which has broken the most recent peak at $45.10. The only resistance left indicated by the lagging line is $48.20, and a weekly close higher than $48.20 will open up the recent high at $55.47 and possibly the $60.00 handle.
The Awesome Oscillator remains red but is positive, suggesting that bears are not fully in control of momentum.
Monero moved higher last week and peaked above the $50.00 handle, closing above the conversion line and the previous week’s high of $46.99. A close above the conversion line signals renewed bullish momentum and we should see the market test the resistance at $57.74, as indicated by the peak of the lagging line (purple). Further resistance lies at $61.70, the fractal sell level from early June.
The daily chart below shows several bullish signals. Firstly, the lagging line has moved from below to above the cloud, confirming an upward trend. Secondly, the Ichimoku cloud has turned green, after remaining red in color for several weeks. Finally, the Awesome Oscillator is growing and is green in color. Therefore, we should see XMR-USD appreciate over the coming week and surpass the $50 handle.
The weekly chart below shows that DASH-USD may return to short-term equilibrium at $177 before making any further gains. The chart shows that the conversion line (blue) has flattened and provides support at $177.50. Therefore, we suggest limit buy orders at $177.60 this week. Also, we evaluate the long-term outlook at the end of the week; with a weekly close below $177.60, we look to sell. However, a weekly close higher than $195.97 will open up the fractal resistance at $240.00; notice that the peak of the lagging line provides resistance at $195.97 and a break of this level will likely open up a new all-time high for the altcoin.
Looking at the daily timeframe, we see that DASH has found support within the Ichimoku cloud. The conversion line is starting to point upward, suggesting we will see gains for DASH-USD in the days ahead. For the past six days, DASH-USD has remained trapped within the Ichimoku cloud; a bullish breakout will point an upward trend forming and an attempt at the fractal resistance at $219.00. A close higher than $192.00 for August 7 will necessitate a bullish outlook and we look to enter long positions for DASH in this case. Also, notice that the lagging line (purple) has moved above the previous price action and now looks to break above the conversion line, giving another bullish indication.
Volatilty persists for Bitcoin Cash. The new altcoin has shown large gains on August 7, and a break above the fractal resistance at 0.0843 will open up an attempt at the base line, which stands at 0.1469. Notice that the price action closed above the conversion line and the lagging line has formed a trough, suggesting a bottom has been found in the market. A bearish outlook is validated if there is a 4-hour close below the conversion line.
XEM closed above both the base line and conversion line last week, giving a strong bullish signal. XEM-BTC reached a high of 0.00009000 last week but buyers were tempered back below 0.00008000. However, a retrace looks to be complete and we should see a continuation of the long-term upward trend. We look to buy XEM-BTC with a break of the immediate Fibonacci resistance at 0.00008749. Also, notice that the Awesome Oscillator is setting up a bullish saucer signal for next week. Immediate support is found at 0.00007133.
As noted in our coverage of the COMSA ICO platform, XEM found support near the open and 50 percent levels of the daily bullish Marubozu, shown below. Additionally, we look for an Ichimoku breakout to the upside to add another long position on XEM-BTC.
Stratis is one strong-performing altcoin that has moved higher in tandem with bitcoin, up over 7 percent on today’s open and around 50 percent since early July. Last week, however, STRAT-BTC failed to close above the base line, at 0.0024, which would have given a bullish signal. We await this signal to enter into a long position. Moreover, we await the weekly close to decide whether to enter a long position or not. For instance, the peak of the lagging line provides a key resistance at 0.0022. A weekly close above this level will open up the fractal resistances at 0.0026 and 0.0046. On the other hand, a weekly close below 0.0022 will necessitate a bearish outlook.
The conversion line is moving lower and acts as resistance, so it may therefore be best to enter a sell position at 0.0023, as the conversion line is crossing below the base line, indicating bearish momentum is starting to take hold. Waiting for the weekly close will give further clarity.