by Jamie Holmes
BTCManager’s Weekly Cryptocurrency Outlook highlights the price action and technical indicators on a long-term basis to identify the best opportunities in the largest cryptocurrencies, such as bitcoin, ether, and others.
The monthly chart below shows that BTC-USD displayed its strongest gain in a month during November, setting up for further gains in December. Also, the market closed in the top third of the range over the past month, above $9448.52, suggesting bulls will remain in control for the time being. However, the monthly close was below the Fibonacci resistance at $10,076.44, suggesting bulls were not completely dominating. Nevertheless, the price action on December 1 has exceeded the Fibonacci resistance again, with the market trading above $10,200 at the time of writing. Further resistance is seen at $13,226.34, the third Fibonacci extension level.
To give further confirmation of a long-term move toward $13,266.34, we look for a weekly close for BTC-USD above $10,076.44. So far this week, the market has made an attempt above this level but were pushed back down by sellers. Therefore, we await the weekly close before deciding on long-term positions.
The daily price action on the Bitstamp exchange is displayed below. We see that a fractal resistance will form at the all-time high at $11,395, unless the market breaks above this level by December 2. We also see from the chart below that the market tested the conversion line (blue), which has provided strong support at $9635.50.
After a bullish run and the conversion line turns horizontal, it is usually a good time to buy in on the ongoing trend. Therefore, we should look for the conversion line to start creeping higher again in the next day or so, which will give a signal that the uptrend will continue. Conversely, if the conversion line starts trending lower, we should prepare for a move toward the base line (red), which lies at $8475.275, providing another critical support zone.
A daily close above $10,076.44 has not been achieved yet, as shown above. Once the market’s closing price for a daily trading session is above the Fibonacci support, we will get bullish confirmation and look for the price to test further resistances at $12,883.10 and $13,226.34. Support is shown at $10,084.19 and $10,076.44.
Ether also closed at its highest ever level as we entered December, with ETH-USD managing a monthly close at $439.25. Since the market closed the month above the previous all-time high at $404.90, we look for ether to drift toward the $651.62 extension level, shown below. Supports are shown at $404.90 and $388.00.
The weekly price action below shows that $470.00 is a key balance point. Notice that the bullish saucer signal was triggered this week when ether moved above $470. However, ETH-USD only managed to reach as high as $498.90, before reversing. We look for another move above $470.00 to confirm a longer-term move toward $651.62. Given that the bullish saucer signal has already been confirmed, we could enter long positions at the current market price, or alternatively, wait for more confirmation with a move back above $470.00. Also, we could enter the upward trend when the market test the support provided by the conversion line, which stands at $387.45.
The market closed above $404.90 for the first time on the weekly timeframe, giving an indication of a move toward $651.62. Already, the market has tested the $404.90 as a support level, indicating that the market will now look for a new ceiling.
The daily chart below shows that the support provided by the conversion line remained intact, despite a drop toward $400. The market now looks to head upward, following the conversion line higher.
Bitcoin cash closed in the middle third of its price range for November, suggesting indecision in the markets. Buyers were beaten back from the highs above $2,500 with November’s close way lower at $1328.66, suggesting December is more likely to see downside for the altcoin rather than a continuation of the upward move.
The weekly price action below shows that the market is testing the 50 percent Fibonacci support at $1390.05, as well as the conversion line providing support at the same level. A weekly close below $1390.05 will give a bearish signal and see bitcoin cash test the supports at $1128.80 and $805.58. A 100 percent retrace should not be ruled out either, which would suggest a long-term decline to $283.10, the low from October.
The daily chart shows that bearish momentum is starting to take hold, as shown by the Awesome Oscillator, which has turned red and looks to dive toward the negative zone. The Ichimoku cloud remains thin and has changed color to green, but could easily change back to red again unless there is some upward momentum that kicks in. Notice also that the base line (red) is above the conversion line (blue), suggesting bearish momentum is starting to take hold. Volume is also falling on the Bittrex exchange, suggesting interest in the pair is dwindling and points to further losses in the days ahead.
The monthly chart below shows that ripple may enjoy bullish momentum and push toward the all-time high in January. Notice that the Awesome Oscillator is forming a bullish saucer, which will be triggered in January 2018 with a move above December’s high.
The market seems to have found support at the 38.2 percent Fibonacci retracement level and has continued higher since testing this level over the past month or so. Immediate resistance is found at $0.2862, where a break of this level will open up further resistances at $0.3520 and $0.4583.
Also notice that the conversion line (blue) is starting to diverge from the base line (red) and move higher, suggesting bullish momentum will start to dominate in December and the months ahead, if the trend of the Ichimoku indicator continues.
Litecoin saw the highest monthly volume since April 2017 during November on the Bitfinex exchange, pointing to further gains for the altcoin in the next few months. Litecoin flirted with the $100 level for the first time in November, but bears beat the market down to close at $85.768 for November. Nevertheless, we get a bullish signal from November’s price action. Since LTC-USD closed above the peak of the lagging line (purple), which provided resistance at $72.691, we should see buyers unrestricted in terms of moving upward and see another attempt at $100. Also, in event of a downturn, we should look to buy near at the former resistance, now turned support level at $72.691.
Looking at the weekly price action below, we see there is a good likelihood that LTC-USD will tend toward $128. For instance, the bullish saucer was triggered this week with a move above $89.393 and the current market price is resting above this important balance point. Moreover, a weekly close above $93.716 will give stronger confirmation that the market will attempt new highs and target the $128.08 Fibonacci extension level. Finally, we also see that volume has been fairly consistent over the past few weeks, with four consecutive weeks of buying volume that is slightly increasing.
Dash experienced its highest ever monthly volume and price gain on the Bittrex exchange in November, as shown below. The market has broken the previous all-time high above $400 and exceeded the first Fibonacci extension level at $665.28 to reach new highs near $850. The first Fibonacci extension level provides support, whereas the next resistance is suggested above $1000. Notice, that the second Fibonacci extension level provides a target for bulls at $1071.67.
More resistance levels are revealed when looking at the weekly price action below. The $900 handle may put up stiff resistance, as the Fibonacci extension level below suggests we will see selling interest around $892.61. Immediate support lies at $596.89.
Like Dash, Ethereum Classic also experienced its best performance during a single month on November, breaking above the $30 handle for the first time. Also, the market closed above the conversion line (blue) for the first time since May and broke the only fractal resistance at $23.779, suggesting upward momentum is likely to strengthen over the next month or two.
The daily chart below illustrates the important resistance and support levels to watch. December 1’s price action has broken above $28.574, suggesting the next resistance will be tested, the all-time high at $32.180. Supports lie at $26.343 and $24.54. A break of $32.18 gives a strong possibility that ETC-USD will reach $41.623, the first Fibonacci extension level; therefore, we set limit buy orders at $32.28 with a target of $41.523.
Monero continues its upward trend, looking to attempt the Fibonacci extension level at $241.71. The chart below shows that the conversion line (blue) is trending higher this week, while the pitchfork shows that the altcoin is having trouble breaking through the middle channel. By the end of 2018, we could see XMR-USD attempt the $241.71 resistance. The $200 psychological resistance also stands in the way.
The daily chart below shows that XMR-USD has tested the $159.90 level as support and has continued higher on December 1. Since the market is closer to this major support zone, we expect the upward momentum to resume. Another key resistance is at $194.94 and a daily close above this level will give stronger confirmation of a move toward $241.71. Therefore, we could set limit buy orders at $195.04 with a target of $241.61. The conversion line (blue) provides support at $178.26 for December 1; a daily close above this level will be considered bullish, whereas a close below $178.26 will open up the support at $145.06 (base line).
As the halving approaches for vertcoin, the cryptocurrency has broken above the $6 handle on December 1. The halving of Vertcoin’s block reward will take place on December 12, and is the first such event for the altcoin. The monthly chart below shows that November’s price action failed to establish a higher close than that from February 2014, where VTC-USD closed at $5.49. November’s close managed to reach $5.31, but December’s close looks to be the highest ever monthly close for VTC-USD. Volumes in November were comparable to those in October, with strong buying volume supporting the altcoin’s rise and foretells of further appreciation.
The weekly chart below shows that the current market price is moving above the recent high at $6.06, opening up a move toward the Fibonacci extension level at $9.32. A weekly close higher than $6.06 will give stronger confirmation of such a bullish move. The altcoin has yet to test it’s all-time high at $7.1925 and is looking likely this level will be attempted in December with the halving taking place on December 12. Supports are seen at $6.06 and $4.81.
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