by Jamie Holmes
BTCManager’s Weekly Cryptocurrency Outlook highlights the price action and technical indicators on a long-term basis to identify the best opportunities in the largest cryptocurrencies, such as bitcoin, ether, and others.
BTC-USD (Bitstamp): Fifth Day of Losses see Bitcoin below $16,000
Bitcoin has suffered its fifth day of consecutive losses on December 21, after peaking at $19,666.00 on the Bitstamp exchange. The Fibonacci retracement levels are shown for the move from $12,701.05 to $17,428.42. We look to buy inbetween the Fibonacci supports at $14,506.91 and $13,816.71.
The base line (red) also provides an important support, standing at $14,102.10 for Dec. 21. Also, we see that the Awesome Oscillator has turned red on Dec. 20, suggesting bulls have started to lose control. Therefore, we look for a reversal in the area indicated below. A daily close above the conversion will negate the bearish outlook.
BTC-USD (Bitstamp, Daily)
The weekly price action is shown below for BTC-USD. We see a fractal resistance will form if the price does not manage to move above $19,666.00 by January 1, 2018. If the fractal resistance forms, then it suggests further downside for bitcoin, with the nearest support only indicated at $12,516.00 by the converison line (blue). The most recent fractal support on this timeframe is at $2972.01 and given that the market does not test $19,666.00 by Jan. 1, there will be a search for a new floor (most likely near $12,000-$10,000).
BTC-USD (Bitstamp, Weekly)
ETH-USD (Kraken): Move to $1050 Opened up
Ethereum achieved the target at $651.62 and even closed higher than the Fibonacci level last week, opening up a move to $1050.69. As shown by the Awesome Oscillator and conversion line, the momentum of the market remains bullish. The momentum has followed the price action by making higher highs, suggesting the upward move is supported and likely to continue. We now see a trading range between $650 and $1050, with the Fibonacci level at $651.62 now turning into support.
ETH-USD (Weekly, Kraken)
However, the weekly candle is showing that bears are fighting back, with the close looking to be below the upper third of this week’s price action. The conversion line provides support at $569.50 for the week, suggesting we could see a pullback to this area next week if the market manages to break below $650. A weekly close above $811.33 will provide a more certain bullish outlook for the weeks ahead.
XRP-BTC (Poloniex): One Ripple token now costs $1
The weekly chart for XRP-BTC below shows that the altcoin is looking to test the 12,000 satoshi level, as indicated by the upper span of the Ichimoku cloud. After a long-term decline, the pair is now bouncing back and looking to return to equilibrium. The market looks to close above the base line (red) this week, which will give a weak bullish signal and give further confirmation of a move toward the cloud. The weekly close also look to close higher than the fractal high from November; therefore, we await the close for the current candlestick to enter a long position. Longs should take profit/partial profit near the 12,000 satoshi level.
XRP-BTC (Weekly, Poloniex)
XMR-USD (Kraken): Fresh Highs, $500 in Sight?
Monero soared to fresh highs this week at $469.50 on the Kraken exchange, clearing the resistance at $374.09 with ease. On December 21, the market has tested the Fibonacci level as support but has since moved higher. Maintaining above $374.09 will suggest an attempt at $506.47 over the long term, which is the third Fibonacci extension level.
Since forming a fractal low at $81.50 near the end of November, the market has displayed seven consecutive higher highs, suggesting there is room for more upside in the next couple of weeks. The market will be suggested to be exhausted after seven to 11 near consecutive higher highs, so we can expect a peak by January 22 at the earliest for the monero price. At the latest, the bullish surge could last until March 19 according to the ‘record high’ rule of thumb.
XMR-USD (Weekly, Kraken)
BCH-BTC (Bittrex): Market Returns to Equilibrium
The daily chart shows a fractal emerging for BCH-BTC which suggests further downside for the pair. Bitcoin cash was unable to close above the Ichimoku cloud and the area is proving to be a strong resistance zone. The cloud gets wider in the days ahead, suggesting a range between 0.12 and 0.25 if the altcoin gets ‘trapped’ within the cloud. December 20 saw a fresh high for BCH-BTC at 0.289 on the Bittrex exchange following Coinbase’s announcement that their users could start buying the cryptocurrency.
BCH-BTC (Daily, Bittrex)
The push above the fractal at 0.1285 on Dec. 19 gave an indication that the market would test the Ichimoku cloud region. A daily close above the cloud would give a good reason to go long on BCH-BTC as the Awesome Oscillator has turned positive and remains green in color and a bullish signal is given by the crossover of the conversion and base lines. Therefore, we look to buy on a daily close above the Ichimoku cloud, that is 0.2392.
Perhaps as volume drops off we will see the lower span of the Ichimoku tested around 0.1285, which has tuned into a support level, if the market fails to establish a bullish breakout of the cloud zone.
The weekly chart below shows that a failure to close above 0.2392 will provide a bearish outlook for BCH-BTC for the long term. The market managed to breach this level earlier in the week, but held up as a strong resistance level. The nearest fractal support lies near 0.068, which will be confirmed on the open of the next candlestick, with the market likely to trend toward this support.
BCH-BTC (Weekly, Bittrex)
DASH-USD (Kraken): Welcome to Four Figures
Dash reached new highs this week at $1625.00 on Kraken, after breaking the $1000 psychological handle on December 17. The price action rests above the support at $1207.50; further support is seen at $1112.50. So far on Dec. 21, the conversion line has held up as support, suggesting a move higher from here on. A daily close above the conversion line will give further support to bulls and refresh them for another attempt at $1625.00
DASH-USD (Kraken, Daily)
The Awesome Oscillator looks overstretched and indicates bulls are slowly and surely being exhausted. Of course, a rise above $1625 before December 23 would paint a bullish outlook. If the market remains below the $1625 level until Dec. 23, then a fractal sell level will form, which will lead to the price action to discover a new floor and establish a fractal buy level in response. In this case, we should see the market tend toward short-term equilibrium as indicated by the conversion and base lines.
ETC-BTC (Bittrex): Remains Subdued Below 0.00250
Sitting below the resistance zone, ETC looks to dive lower and should find support around 0.0020. The market approached the fractal high at 0.0025 but has since retreated. A break above this level will trigger a buy signal as the market attempts to assert itself above the Ichimoku cloud (and pointing to a longer term rise). Resistance is shown at the fractal sell level near 0.0035.
Awesome Oscillator is moving to positive territory, indicating momentum is starting to turn in favor of bulls. A short is suggesting if the market moves below, the open of the first of the three green candles in a row highlighted on the chart.
ETC-BTC (Daily, Bittrex)
XLM-BTC (Bittrex): Lumens Display Strongest Weekly Gain since Spring
Last week’s price action opened up an opportunity to long XLM-BTC at 1,393 satoshis. The market closed above the conversion line and an important fractal resistance. The Fibonacci extension level at 1,580 satoshis has already been achieved and the resistance now turns to support. The market will now aim for the second extension level at 2,392 satoshis, which coincides nicely with the upper span of the Ichimoku cloud.
XLM-BTC (Weekly, Bittrex)
The Awesome Oscillator also turns positive for the first time since the summer, pointing to an incoming surge of bullish momentum. Buy on a weekly close above 1,580 satoshis, targeting 2,392, 3,204 and 3,706 satoshis. Trade idea fails on weekly close below 1,078.
XEM-BTC (Poloniex): Catapult Release Anticipated Dec 31
A big bullish trend looks to be forming for XEM-BTC. The altcoin has displayed strong gains as it gets support from Trezor and was recently revealed to have released a WeChat wallet. Furthermore, the highly anticipated Catapult release is slated for December 31, so we look for a buy position on the weekly close.
The weekly chart below shows that the market looks to close above the base line (red), which will give a weak bullish signal. Nevertheless, there could be strong gains in XEM-BTC, as we see that the momentum is shifting in favor of bulls and there is a thin Ichimoku cloud ahead for the early weeks of 2018. The thinness of the cloud indicates weak resistance, and the crypto-pair will break through this with ease. Moreover, the conversion line looks set to cross above the base line, which will give another bullish signal. Finally, a bullish Marubozu also looks to form for the current week.
In early January 2017, BTCManager identified the rally in XEM-BTC, which coincided with bitcoin’s fresh highs at the time. The same pattern is seen again today. After crossing above the conversion line last week, we see that the market is heading toward the Ichimoku cloud and looks to test the 2017 high during January or February.
XEM-BTC (Weekly, Poloniex)
In summary, look to buy on the weekly close (given it is above the base line). Otherwise, no positions. Target 0.00013980 at least by March 2018. Trade idea fails if there’s a weekly close back below conversion line.
DOGE-BTC (Poloniex): A Seasonal Pump
Dogecoin delivered a similar buy signal last week as the market closed above the conversion line (blue), suggesting we will see the altcoin trend to the resistance around 100 satoshis.
It seems that the pump for doge has come early, where DOGE-BTC has exhibited strong upward trends in early weeks of the calendar years 2016 and 2017. The close above the conversion line last week gave an entry to go long at 30 satoshis. We recommend to enter market buys, as the pair will now look to target resistances at 56 and 100 satoshis. The upper span of the red Ichimoku cloud will attract the price action, given that the conversion line is trending higher. Last week also saw a break of the fractal resistance at 27 satoshis, providing further reason for a bullish outlook.
DOGE-BTC (Weekly, Poloniex)
UBQ-BTC (Bittrex): Bottoming Out Against Bitcoin
The weekly chart for UBQ-BTC is shown below. Ubiq is on course for its strongest week since June 2017, just before it reached it’s all-time high of 0.00097. There are three main signals that suggest UBQ will continue higher in the weeks ahead. Firstly, the weekly price action looks to close above the conversion line for the first time since August. Once confirmed, this move opens up an attempt at the base line (red) and the most recent fractal resistance at 0.00074298.
Secondly, the lagging line (purple) looks to be forming a trough, suggesting the altcoin is bottoming out and getting ready to establish higher highs. The next resistance provided by the lagging line is at 0.00052228, suggesting there is plenty of leverage of a continued upward move.
Finally, we see that two weeks ago, the market made a fresh low of 0.00008480. The low will form a fractal buy level as the two candlesticks either side have higher lows. Therefore, on the weekly close, it is recommended to buy UBQ-BTC, as the formation of the fractal support will refresh bullish momentum. In addition, we see that the Awesome Oscillator is moving higher and changed color to green, suggesting that the downward momentum has run out of steam.
UBQ-BTC (Weekly, Bittrex)
In summary, we look to buy UBQ-BTC on the open of the next weekly candlestick (given the market is higher than the conversion line, which is around 0.00018. Furthermore, the candlestick at present is a bullish Marubozu; if this form of the candlestick is maintained, we would also like to enter a position on the weekly close and at the open and 50 percent level of the bullish Marubozu. Targets are outlined at 0.00052228 and 0.00074298. The trade idea fails if there is a weekly close back below the conversion line.
The daily timeframe is displayed below and we see there is a bullish Ichimoku breakout in play. The cloud has also changed color to green, suggesting that the market will enter into an upward trend. Look to buy on the test of the support provided by the Ichimoku cloud, around 0.00020 and 0.00016.
Moreover, we see that on December 18, a bullish Marubozu formed and we should see strong support around 0.00015999 and the 50 percent level at 0.00020250. Momentum is expected to be weighted to the upside, since the Awesome Oscillator has turned positive in recent days.
UBQ-BTC (Daily, Bittrex)
In summary, the recommended trades on the daily timeframe; buy on the close of December 21’s candlestick (given it is above the red Ichimoku cloud at 0.00025), set limit buy orders at 0.00015999 and 0.00020250 (or anywhere in the Ichimoku cloud.) Look to take profit/partial profit at 0.00052228, trade idea fails if daily close below 0.00015999.