by Jamie Holmes
BTCManager’s Weekly Cryptocurrency Outlook highlights the price action and technical indicators on a long-term timeframe to identify the best opportunities in the largest cryptocurrencies, such as bitcoin, ether, and others. The week beginning February 20 was eventful, with BTC-USD posting a fresh all-time high on Bitstamp, with DASH achieving new highs too.
BTC-USD (Bitstamp): Fresh All-time Highs on Bitstamp
BTC-USD established a fresh all-time high on the Bitstamp exchange on February 23, at $1220.00, just $20 or so short of the highest ever price across all exchanges, near $1242.20 on Mt. Gox. The current bull market could extend as high as $1829.20, as suggested by the long-term structure of the market and Fibonacci ratios.
The weekly chart below shows that this week’s price action will break the fractal sell level at $1139.89, suggesting bullish momentum will continue in the weeks ahead. Also, notice the sudden uptick of the conversion line (blue) and base line (red), after several weeks of near horizontal movement. This signal indicates that the likelihood of BTC-USD heading higher has increased significantly.
The conversion line will provide support going forward which lies at $985.67. The conversion line should also be a zone of intense buying interest, remaining a key support level and an important point of reference. Resistances lie at psychological levels at $1250 and $1500.
ETH-USD (Kraken): Clears the $13 Handle
ETH-USD heads higher breaking the $13 handle, after testing support provided by the Ichimoku cloud shown below. The bullish outlook remains intact for ether, with the market tending to the fractal resistance at $14.45. A close above $13.7050 by the end of Tuesday February 28 will strengthen the bullish outlook considerably, where this signal will indicate a close above the conversion line on the monthly timeframe and points ot further gains toward $15.17.
A bearish outlook is only validated if we see a move below $12.22, the most recent fractal support on the daily timeframe.
DASH-USD (Poloniex): Follows Bitcoin, Establishes All-time High at $30
DASH-USD follows bitcoin by establishing a fresh all-time high at $30 on February 24. Short-term equilibrium is indicated just above $20.42 to $21.92 by the 4-hour Ichimoku cloud, which could provide a floor in the event of a downturn.
The weekly chart below shows the strong bullish momentum, indicated by the steep upward slope of the green Ichimoku cloud, conversion line and base line. The conversion line will provide support at $19.75 for the remainder of the week and as long as the market remains above the conversion line, we should see the market trend higher over the long term.
XMR-USD (Poloniex): Monero Heads Lower, Preparing to Jump Higher?
XMR-USD has headed lower on February 24, breaking below the $12 handle. This week saw a low at $11.48, with a fractal buy level set to form at $11.47. If by Monday February February 27, XMR-USD remains above $11.47999992, then a fractal support will be established at this level and will point to upward momentum. The most recent fractal resistance lies at $18.46, providing plenty of leverage for further upside.
However, a push below $11.47 will invalidate this fractal buy level and see XMR-USD head toward the Ichimoku cloud around $8.00.
Also, notice that the base line and conversion line are trending higher, suggesting the market is more likely to head higher in the weeks ahead. But XMR-USD must remain above the base line, which provided a buffer zone of support this week, and lies at $11.33. A weekly close of the candlestick below the base line will provide a weak bearish signal. For now, buy positions are favored. The conversion line offers resistance at $14.09, which could serve as a good initial target for buyers.
ETC-USD (Poloniex): A Mixed Bag of Signals
The weekly chart below for ETC-USD shows several interesting, and yet conflicting, signals. Firstly, the lagging line (purple) is below the previous price action, which is a bearish signal. Only should we look for a long-term buy once the lagging line pierces above the previous price action. Secondly, the conversion line has crossed above the base line, providing a bullish signal and suggests momentum will now move in favor of buyers.
It also seems to be the case that two simultaneous fractal levels will form. Firstly, at the end of this week, a fractal sell level will form at $1.509999, providing a key resistance in the weeks ahead. Also, if the market remains above $1.177 by March 6, a fractal buy level will form at this level and will lead to renewed upward momentum. A break below $1.177 will see ETC-USD head toward the $1.00 handle. Also, we should wait for another bullish signal, that is a weekly close above the conversion line, which provides resistance at $1.42, before looking to establish large buy positions in ETC-USD.
XEM-BTC (Poloniex): Upsurge Takes a Breather
XEM-BTC failed to close above the base line at 0.00000700 and has since moved lower. However, XEM has retained its value in dollar terms as bitcoin heads higher and remains in an upward trend over the medium-term. After posting a fresh high at 0.00000719, the market has now tested the support zone provided by the conversion line around 0.00000500. The conversion line has held which suggests that bullish momentum will pick up again.
However, a close above the base line will give further bullish confirmation, which lies around 0.00000668. We suggest waiting for confirmation of this signal for long positions, and recommend short positions if XEM-BTC moves below the conversion line.
GNT-BTC (Poloniex): Golem Token Listed on Poloniex
Golem’s token (GNT) was listed on the Poloniex exchange recently and has shown a lot of volatility, providing opportunities for traders. The 4-hour chart below shows that bearish momentum has taken hold, as indicated by the relative positions of the base line and conversion line. The conversion line provides immediate resistance around 0.00002150.
Therefore, there is a higher likelihood there will be further downside. Fractal support lies at 0.00001911 and if broken, we will see GNT-BTC test the low at 0.00001840.