by Jamie Holmes
Every week, BTCManager provides a cryptocurrency market outlook, highlighting the best opportunities in the largest cryptocurrencies, such as bitcoin, ether, and others.
Following the introduction of fees on Chinese exchanges, volumes from the country have dropped sharply, with BTC-USD trading between $930 and $880 in recent days. The critical $890 support has held so far, invalidating a bearish outlook. However, if there is a sustained break below $890, then the market will look to establish a new support zone, most likely around $800.
Notice that the market has remained below the conversion line, after testing the resistance at $930. Therefore, if the market remains below the conversion line by the end of the week, there will be more justification for further downside. A bullish outlook is only strengthened if BTC-USD manages to sustain above the $930 level.
Also, notice that the Awesome Oscillator has turned from green to red, suggesting that bears are starting to exert control over the market.
The daily price action is shown below, illustrating that the market is testing support provided by the Ichimoku cloud. A break below the Ichimoku cloud will point to the formation of a new downward trend, so we can set limit sell orders just below the Ichimoku cloud. The base line provides resistance at $945, suggesting a daily close above $945 is required for bullish momentum to retake control. As of the time of writing, the chart below show that bitcoin remains trapped between the conversion line providing support and the base line providing resistance. We await a breakout of these components of the Ichimoku to determine the dominant direction going forward.
After failing to remain above $11.00, ETH-USD now looks to head south and test critical supports at $10.00 and $8.77. The chart below shows the daily price action for Ether on the Kraken exchange. A fractal resistance looks to form at the end of today’s trading session at $11.1971 and will reinforce downward momentum. The conversion line is putting up some support for ETH-USD but a daily close below this level, i.e. below $10.40, will point to further downside.
The market looks to be heading towards the Ichimoku cloud, specifically the flat span at $8.77. Bearish momentum is also confirmed by the Awesome Oscillator, which has turned red and is now trending lower toward the zero threshold. Volume on the Kraken exchange is also falling, suggesting less interest in ETH-USD and could contribute to further decline.
To justify a bullish outlook, the conversion line must hold as support. Alternatively, we can set limit buy orders just above $11.1971 to take advantage of any bullish breakout. On the other hand, limit sell orders can be set just below $9.59 to take advantage of a downward trend continuation.
The daily chart for monero below shows that XMR-USD is at a critical juncture. Resting on the support provided by the conversion line at $11.65, this level is key going forward. A daily close above $11.65 on January 25 should provide bullish impetus whereas a break below $11.65 by the end of Jan. 25 will point to a move towards fractal support just below $10.00.
Buy volume has picked up today suggesting that further gains may be in store for XMR-USD. We look for a break above the most recent fractal resistance at $12.25 to enter long-term buy positions.
The weekly chart below show that if XMR-USD fails to close above the conversion line at $12.78, the market could be attracted to the flat base line providing support around $9.80. Therefore, we also look to set limit buy orders around $9.87 to take advantage of any bounce in this zone. Sell positions are advised if the weekly close is below $9.87.
Following the fall below the critical balance point at $1.41, a bearish outlook for ETC-USD is justified. The conversion line suggests that equilibrium lies around $1.00 for Ether Classic and we set market sell orders with a take profit set at $1.03. The conversion line is flat, indicating that the market will be attracted to this level. Alternatively, we could set limit buy orders around $1.03 to take advantage of any buying interest found around the $1.00 psychological level.
One outlier to the recent weak performance in major cryptocurrencies is XEM-BTC, where XEM is the token of the NEM blockchain network. XEM-BTC has seen a 8 percent increase over the past 24 hours and we think XEM is a strong long-term buy.
To see why, examine the monthly chart below. Notice that a variant of the bullish Marubozu candlestick formed back in June 2016, with the base of this candlestick provided a crucial support level at 0.00000340. So far in January 2017, the market has tested this support and has sinced moved higher. Therefore, after failing to sustain below the support level, XEM-BTC will more likely head higher.
Secondly, notice that the lagging line is forming a trough, suggesting a bottom in the market has been reached. Furthermore, the only other indicator of the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo that has formed, due to the infancy of the market for XEM-BTC, is the conversion line (blue). The conversion line suggests equilibrium lies around 0.0000150 and the flat slope suggests that over the long-term the market will be attracted to this level.
Finally, volumes have switched in January after six consecutive months of heavy selling. Volumes have doubled compared to December 2016 and have switched to favoring buy positions, suggesting that bears are exhausted and a new bull run will emerge during the first half of 2017.
The weekly outlook below shows that sellers are becoming exhausted. For example, the price action has now crossed above the conversion line, providing the first signal that bulls may start to take charge of XEM-BTC. Secondly, the Awesome Oscillator has switched color from red to green, also supporting bullish momentum going forward. Immediate resistance lies around 0.00000760, provided by the base line (red), after which the market will encounter resistance at the Ichimoku cloud, that is around 0.0000150.
In our previous cryptocurrency market outlook, we highlighted MAID as one altcoin that could perform well in the coming weeks. While last week, the market failed to break the fractal resistance at 0.00013676, we still think that bullish momentum will be able to break this level and open up resistance around 0.000160, the equilibrium zone indicated by the Ichimoku cloud below.
Last week saw the formation of a Doji, which indicates indecision, however, the Doji is formed right after a bullish Marubozu candlestick and is of a bullish variant, suggesting the uptrend for MAID-BTC will remain intact.
After the most recent fractal resistance is broken, the next resistances lie near 0.000150 and 0.00024, providing plenty of upside for MAID-BTC once 0.00013676 is broken. Also, notice from the chart below that the lagging line (purple) has crossed above the previous price action, providing a weak bullish signal.
Looking at the daily outlook below, we see that bullish momentum is expected to dominate. For instance, look at the conversion line which is trending higher with a steep slope, suggesting the market will continue to head higher. Also, we see that the oscillator has turned green today, suggesting that bulls are gaining the upper hand and are getting ready for another jump higher after retracting from recent highs around 0.00013676.