by Jamie Holmes
BTCManager's Weekly Cryptocurrency Outlook highlights the price action and technical indicators on a long-term basis to identify the best opportunities in the largest cryptocurrencies, such as bitcoin, ether, and others.
BTC-USD (Bitstamp): A Volatile Week, but BTC-USD Stands Strong
The weekly price action is shown below, with BTC-USD closing the week around $30 lower than where it started. The high of last week's price action at $1350.00 could potentialy form a critical fractal resistance. We look for a break of $1350.00 for a bullish breakout. However, if $1350.00 is not reached within the next two weeks, then this points to increased risk of downside for bitcoin.
However, the conversion line is moving higher this week, suggesting a higher probability of appreciation for BTC-USD. The Awesome Oscillator also confirms bullish momentum is strengthening, as the oscillator moves higher and remains green in color.
The short-term outlook is displayed below by the 4-hour Renko chart. BTC-USD is currently within an uptrend and we should only enter into short positions once the market breaks below $1141.72. Otherwise, we should look for entries into buy positions.
ETH-USD (Kraken): Bulls Close in On $34.30 Target
As stated in our previous weekly cryptocurrency market outlook, ETH-USD looked to break the all-time high and has now achieved this feat, posting a fresh high at $28.49. The market will now look to tend toward the Fibonacci extension level, providing an initial target for buyers at $34.30. Also, the brek above the previous all-time high at $21.48 also opens up the further Fibonacci extension level at $55.02.
Support is now seen at $21.48. Also, the short-term outlook is displayed below by the 4-hour Renko chart, with a bullish trend in play at the moment. Therefore, we look for buy positions in ETH-USD. Alternatively, we could wait for the first bearish Renko candlestick to form. At the time of writing, this equates to selling just below $23.78, hence, we set limit sell orders below $23.78 and anticipate a prolonged downturn if ETH-USD moves below this level.
DASH-USD (Poloniex): A Bullish Show of Dominance
DASH-USD continued to push higher, with last week's price action closing just above $77. The week's candlestick is a bullush Marubozu, suggesting we may see some downward momentum before an attempt at the psychological $100 resistance.
Notice the chart below, we have highlighted the base and the 50 percent level of the Bullish marubozu. Limit buy orders are to be placed around these levels to capitalize on a pullback on DASH-USD. As long as these support levels hold, the upward trend in DASH-USD should be maintained. Volumes have been rising, suggested greater interest in the altcoin, and points to further gains in the weeks ahead.
The short-term outlook is shown below by the 4-hour Renko chart. The current trend is up, so no sell positions are suggested, until a bearish Renko candle is formed. Therefore, we set limit sell orders just below $66.58.
XMR-USD (Poloniex): Market tests All-time High
After closing above the conversion line on March 6, we highlighted that this provided a strong bullish signal, with an initial target for buyers at the all-time high (ATH) at $18.46. The market has followed through, posting a fresh high at $18.27, just short of the ATH. Nevertheless, we believe the target will be reached, with monero looking to establish a higher price ceiling.
First of all, notice that this week's conversion line is trending higher, suggesting a higher likelihood of gains. Secondly, a close higher than $18.46 at the end of this week will point to bullish momentum over the long-term and see a test of the $20 psychological handle. Thirdly, bullish momentum is strenthening as indicated by the Awesome Osicllator, which is moving higher and producing a nice curvature in the positive region. Finally, last week saw the highest even volumes for monero on the Poloniex exchange, foretelling of further appreciation for the privacy-focused altcoin.
Where will monero head next? The targets can be ascertained using the Fibonacci extension, as the Ichimoku gives no further targets. Therefore, we use the Fibonacci retracement tool and align it with the swing low point at $4.19 and the swing high point at $18.46. The chart below shows the Fibonacci retracement and extension levels.
Notice that following the run up to the ATH at $18.46, the market then proceeded to test supports provided by the Fib retracement levels at $9.64. The market found a floor around this level and continued higher. A break of the ATH will confirm upward trend continuation and the first target for buyers should be the 161.8 percent extension level at $27.28. However, failure to break the fractal level at $18.46, that is a weekly close below $18.46, will invalidate the bullish outlook.
ETC-USD (Poloniex): Getting Ready for More Gains?
Ether Classic is following Ether higher, with the weekly chart displayed below. Several bullish signals are given for ETC-USD. Firstly, the price action closes above the conversion line, giving a bullish signal. The conversion line should now offer support going forward. Secondly, the lagging line has managed to push above the previous price.
Immediate resistance lies at $1.509 and a break of this level will open up the $2.00 handle. However, notice that volumes have been falling week-on-week and the bullish outlook will be invalidated if this week's close is below the conversion line, that is below $1.3261. Therefore, we look to place limit buy orders at $1.519 and limit sell orders at $1.3161.
REP-BTC (Poloniex): Bottom in the Market Established
Augur's token, REP, has performed strongly as well, along with other altcoins. The weekly chart below shows that a bullish signal was given at the start of this week, with the price action closing above the conversion line for the first time. In addition, the fractal resistance at 0.00579924 was also broken, suggesting bullish momentum will dominate in the weeks ahead.
Therefore, we look to buy REP-BTC, with a target of 0.0100, a key psychological level. Notice from that chart that the lagging line has formed a trough and has now moved higher. Along with the close above the conversion line, this confirms that the market has indeed formed a bottom and we should see upward momentum take hold.
XEM-BTC (Poloniex): Continues to Move Back into Equilibrium
XEM continues its move back into equilibrium and our target at 0.00001239 remains intact. The conversion line has moved above the base line, suggesting bullish momentum. After some indecision in the market last week, the conversion line held as support, and the market continues higher this week. We expect the market to tend toward 0.00001239, the most recent fractal resistance that remains untouched.
Also, notice that bullish momentum is also signaled by the Awesome Oscillator, which has moved from the negative zone to above zero. A second weekly close higher than 0.00000719 was achieved on Sunday March 12, confirming a bullish breakout, and suggests buy positions should be favored.