by Jamie Holmes
BTCManager's Weekly Cryptocurrency Outlook highlights the price action and technical indicators on a long-term basis to identify the best opportunities in the largest cryptocurrencies, such as bitcoin, ether, and others.
BTC-USD (Bitstamp): $1331.81 Remains Valid Target
BTC-USD was cut short of our target at $1331.81, peaking just below $1300. However, bearish momentum has faded after bitcoin tests support around $1230 and has headed higher today, trading at $1285 at the time of writing.
The monthly price action shown below shows that February's candlestick broke a critical fractal resistance at $1163, closing higher at $1191. This gives a strong bullish signal and signals upward momentum will dominate over the long-term. Also, notice that this move higher is supported by greater bullish momentum, as indicated by the Awesome Oscillator, whch is higher as compared to its previous peak.
The weekly timeframe below shows that the market peaked at $1298.00 last week and managed to establish a second, consecutive close higher than the fractal resistance at $1139.89, confiming a bullish breakout. A cross above the $1298.00 level is needed to forecast further gains. If the market fails to test this level, then a fractal sell level may emerge and provide resistance. Support lies at the conversion line (blue) at $1024.67.
The Awesome Oscillator points to further gains this week, as the indicator continues to rise and remains green in color.
The short-term outlook is displayed below by the 4-hour price action. The market remains stuck inside a channel between fractal levels at $1240.00 and $1275.00. Therefore, a break of $1275.00 should see BTC-USD test the recent high at $1298.00 and move toward our target at $1331.81.
However, a 4-hour close below $1240.00 will open up the support zone provided by the Ichimoku cloud, which extends as low as $1194.55.
However, the price remains above the green Ichimoku cloud, suggesting an uptrend is still in play.
Moreover, notice that the converison line and base line look ready to jump higher after turning up slightly compared to the preceding 4-hour sessions. This signal indicates a higher likelihood of the market going higher. The Awesome Oscillator remains flat and is red in color at the moment, suggesting weakness amongst buyers to propel moves in the market.
On the other hand, bears should look for a close below the conversion line to enter short positions, currently at $1062.50.
ETH-USD (Kraken): Test of All-time High Edging Closer
ETH-USD set a record in terms of weekly volume on the Kraken exchange, with net positions at 725,649 buy contracts for the week beginning February 27. The huge uptick in volume suggests greater interest from traders and market participants, pointing to further gains in the weeks ahead. Moreover, the chart below shows that the Ichimoku cloud has changed color from red to green, indicating the start of a long-term uptrend.
Last week, buyers managed to push ether as high as $20.49 but missed out on a test of the all-time high at $21.48. A test of the all-time high is due, with unprecedented volume and the strong buy signals given by the Ichimoku indicator, for example, the change in the color of the coloud, the rising conversion line, which is now above the base line, and the lagging line (purple) has broken its peak at $15.66 and this level will now provide support.
A break of the all-time high suggests a target of $34.30 for ETH-USD, as indicated by Fibonacci analysis shown below. However, a failure to remain above $21.48 will see the market test support at the Fibonacci retracement level at $16.59.
DASH-USD (Poloniex): Momentum Turning Bearish
On March 2, DASH-USD reached a peak just below the $60 handle and suffered a large drop in a single 4-hour trading session to $42.90, triggering sell signals. However, the market only managed to reach the initial target at $37.70, posting a low at $36.06.
A bearish Marubozu formed, giving a strong indication that the preceding uptrend is about to reverse and DASH-USD is about to enter into a long-term downtrend. We highlighted limit sell orders at the 50 percent level and ceiling of this bearish Marubozu. Only the limit sell at $50.55 was triggered.
Notice from the chart above the drastic decline in the oscillations of the Awesome Oscillator. The indicator moved below the zero benchmark level, suggesting bulls have lost control over the medium term. The market has recovered but the Oscillator barely surfaces zero, at 0.3291 at the time of writing.
Also, using the Ichimoku indicator, we see that bearish momentum is starting to take hold, as indicated by the crossover of the base line above the conversion line. DASH-USD is returning to equilibrium, as indicated by the flat Ichimoku cloud around $40.84 and $45.86.
A breakout below the Ichimoku cloud would indicate a move toward fractal support at $27.645. Also, notice that the lagging line is moving below the previous price action, giving another weak bearish signal. Finally, notice the drop in volumes, suggesting that traders are becoming less interested in DASH and moving to other altcoins.
The weekly timeframe is shown below. Notice that the Ichimoku cloud has ceased trending higher. Last week's candlestick indicates a strong possibility of a change in the direction of trading. For instance, although buyers managed to get as high as $59.95, they were tempered by sellers, with the close of the candlestick below the upper third of the entire trading range. In fact, the size of the 'wick' of the candlestick is larger than the green 'body,' suggesting that a reversal is very likely to occur within the next two to five weeks.
The conversion line indicates short-term equilibrium at $35.29 and should provide support going forward. A weekly close below $35.29 will give a weak bearish signal and confirm the bearish outlook. On the other hand, a weekly close higher than $35.29 may see DASH bulls regain control.
XMR-USD (Poloniex): Bullish Breakout, Targeting $18.46
Buyers dominated XMR-USD last week, after the base line held as support and the market seems to be forging out a fractal buy level at $11.42. The fractal support at this level will be confirmed if this week's price action remains higher than $11.42. Once confirmed, this should provide another impetus for further upside.
Also, notice that last week, XMR-USD closed above the conversion line. Since the price action is above the green Ichimoku cloud, this provides a strong bullish signal, suggesting a long-term drift toward $18.46. Also, today monero has broken above its previous all-time high and important fractal resistance at $15.249, remaining a key balance point for the market.
Volumes on Poloniex also surged last week, supporting the movement higher and suggesting continuation of the uptrend. Giving a sign of upward momentum dominating, the Awesome Oscillator has switched to green and moves higher this week.
However, the conversion line has moved lower, contradicting the gauge of momentum provided by the Awesome Oscillator. The conversion line now provides support at $12.86 until March 12 and a weekly close below this level will invalidate our bullish outlook.
ETC-USD (Poloniex): A Long-term Buy as Deflationary model Adopted?
Ether Classic will move toward having a fixed supply, ranging between 210 million and 230 million, announced last week. Some interesting signals are also given on the weekly timeframe for ETC-USD, shown below.
Firstly, notice that after remaining below the previous price action, the lagging line (purple) is now looking to pierce above these candlesticks. The lagging line is simply the current price transposed back 26 periods and provides a comparison with historical prices to indicate the current momentum and trend. Now that the lagging line is moving above the price ETC-USD was at 26 periods ago, we should see a fresh upward movement develop as the market breaks historical resistance.
Secondly, notice that the market tested resistance provided by the converison line at $1.4719 last week and has now jumped above it. A move above the conversion line suggests buy positions should be favored. The optimal entry into a long position is at the support level indicated by the conversion line, at $1.3180 this week. Therefore, limit buy orders at $1.32 are suggested with a target of $1.81.
If ETC-USD trades higher than $1.3180 by March 13, this will give further bullish confirmation, whereas a close below $1.3180 will necessitate a bearish outlook.
Fractal resistance at $1.50999 remains untested, whereas a fractal support looks to form at $1.175, given that this week's price action does not plunge this low. Limit buy orders just above $1.50999 are suggested with a target of $1.81.
Finally, volumes on the Poloniex exchange, which have been rising week-on-week, support further upside for ETC-USD.
XEM-BTC (Poloniex): Upward Momentum Starting to Dominate
XEM-BTC continues its uptrend and we aim for the crypto-pair to return to long-term equilibrium, as indicated by the Ichimoku cloud below.
Bullish dominance was clear last week, where a bullish Marubozu formed. Two other bullish signals were also given. Firstly, the price action closed above the base line, suggesting short-term bearish dominance is over. Secondly, the conversion line has crossed above the base line, giving a weak bullish signal, but gives a strong likelihod that XEM-BTC will tend toward the Ichimoku cloud.
Also, notice that two fractal resistances were taken out amidst a display of strength by buyers last week. The recent high at 0.00000719 and the high at 0.00000780 have both been broken, now providing support. The break of these resistances open up the fractal sell level from August 2016 at 0.00001239.