Weekly Cryptocurrency Market Outlook May 8: Bitcoin, Ethereum, Ripple, Bitcoin Cash, EOS, Litecoin, Cardano, Stellar
by Jamie Holmes
BTCManager’s Weekly Cryptocurrency Outlook highlights the price action and technical indicators on a long-term basis to identify the best opportunities in the largest cryptocurrencies, such as bitcoin, ether, and others.
Bitcoin exhibited the fifth week of straight gains for the week ending May 6. The weekly chart below shows that we have observed three record sessions, or near consecutive higher highs since BTC reversed from the recent low of $6,427.16. For the bullish count to continue, we need a break of last week’s high, $9,948.98, before May 21, otherwise, the count will be invalidated.
The chart above shows that if the record session count continues, we can expect a peak in the price of bitcoin by June 4, earliest, and by October 15, latest.
The conversion line (blue) has moved lower for the week beginning May 7, indicating that price action will follow. The conversion line offers support at $8,188.07. Oscillators such as the Awesome Oscillator and MACD look slightly bullish, with an upward crossover in the MACD looking imminent. Moreover, the Awesome Oscillator is moving higher and looks to cross back into positive territory.
The Parabolic SAR has not given a signal to buy yet, as the indicator remains above the price action. Once the Parabolic SAR switches beneath the weekly price action, we will be gifted a buy signal and would suggest the downward trend is over.
Looking at the monthly price action, we see that after two near consecutive lower lows, the market has not made a new low since hitting $5920.72; if May’s price action can remain above this level, we will start a new count. Secondly, we can see that a monthly close above the base line (red) will give a strong bullish signal, i.e., a monthly close above $10,021.93. Thirdly, we see that $9212.47 (April close) is a key balance point, with a bearish outlook if the price action remains below this level and a bullish outlook if the market manages to break above this level.
Looking at the 4-hour chart below, we see that support is found at $8921.37 according to the Ichimoku‘s lagging line (purple) and the most recent fractal resistance is at $9450.
When looking at the 4-hour Renko chart, we see that bitcoin should find strong support in the $8800-$8900 range, as we have two fractal supports near these levels. The chart currently shows a downward trend in play, as the recent Renko candles are red. For a green Renko candle to form, we require a 4-hour close above $9546.35. Alternatively, we can take a long position on BTC-USD once the first green Renko candle is observed.
However, the daily chart is still showing an uptrend, with the green Renkos still in play. Further downside is anticipated if we obtain a daily close below $8537.58.
The weekly chart below shows that ether (ETH) has made four record sessions since hitting a lot at $359.01. Therefore, we anticipate three to seven more record highs, which at earliest could be complete by May 28, and at the latest, the week beginning September 24.
As with bitcoin, the conversion line has moved lower, offering support at $594.50 for ETH-USD.
The monthly chart shows that May’s close would need to be higher than $800.40 (base line) to obtain a bullish signal on this timeframe. Moreover, fractal support at $594.50 is forming on the monthly chart and will be completed as long as ETH-USD remains above this price until the end of June.
Looking at the daily Renko chart, we see ether is in an uptrend. A daily close below $645.37 would invalidate the uptrend and paint the first red Renko.
The 4-hour Renko chart shows that ETH-USD recently reversed and had entered into a downtrend in this timeframe. Support is seen at $617.00.
The weekly chart for ripple (XRP) shows two bearish signals for the altcoin. Firslty, XRP-BTC looks to move below the conversion line and out of the Ichimoku cloud, with the next support found at the fractal level at 0.00006852. Secondly, the lagging line (purple) is moving from above to below the Ichimoku cloud, which confirms a long-term downtrend.
The daily chart below shows that ripple broke fractal support at 0.00008899 and now looks to head toward the next fractal at 0.00008593. Further support is provided at 0.00007980.
The 4-hour Renko chart shows a breakout, with XRP-BTC looking to head toward the 0.00008000 handle. After three attempts to pain two red Renko candles in a row, the price action has painted a continuation of the red Renkos, and the breakout suggests the market will head toward the Ichimoku cloud.
The weekly price action for bitcoin cash against bitcoin shows that momentum is turning bullish, according to the Awesome Oscillator, which has turned positive for the first time in its history. After posting a low near 0.09, the market has gone onto establish three higher highs. A fresh high before May 21 is needed to keep the bullish count in place.
The market is bound by resistance provided by the base line (red), which at present stands at 0.1804; a weekly close higher than this level will give a bullish signal, whereas a weekly close below this level will see BCH-BTC test the conversion line again (support at 0.1386).
Looking at the monthly price action, and we see that it is bullish for bitcoin cash. Firstly, we see that May could see the highest ever monthly close for BCH-BTC, with the market testing the highest ever monthly close at 0.1713. A monthly close higher than 0.1713 will open up the resistance at 0.2392 (conversion line). Also, we see that the lagging line provides resistance at 0.1713 and with no further peaks, there is no implied resistance until 0.2000 (psychological level) and at the conversion line at 0.2392.
Looking at the daily timeframe, we see support at 0.1627 and 0.1386 according to the Ichimoku indicator. Also, the bullish Marubozu from May 5 will also provide support at the open price, 0.1558. Therefore, we can set limit buy orders near these levels to capitalize on a downward move.
When observing the daily Renko chart, we see that an uptrend is still in place. The uptrend is only invalidated with a daily close below 0.14785095, which will paint a red Renko candle.
The 4-hour price action shows that a 4-hour session close below 0.16767808 will invalidate the current uptrend and paint the first red Renko after a series of green Renko’s.
The weekly chart for EOS shows support is found near 0.0015 and 0.0013, as indicated by the conversion and base lines. Late April saw a show of bullish dominance, with the largest gain in a single week between April 23 and April 30. The market tested the 50 percent level of the bullish Marobozu variant last week, and given that the 0.0017 handle remains intact, we should see the upside continue.
The daily chart shows that a daily close above 0.0020 will give a bullish signal, as this would mark the price closing above the conversion line. We should also take note of the resistances provided by the lagging line, as a break of these levels would likely lead to a bullish continuation.
The daily Renko chart shows an uptrend in place and will only be invalidated with a daily close below 0.0017442.
The 4-hour Renko chart shows that EOS-BTC reversed on May 8, with the first green Renko candle after a series of red ones. Therefore, in the short term, buys are favored.
Litecoin gave a bullish signal this week, closing above the conversion line for the first time since February 2018. The Awesome Oscillator is moving further into the positive zone and remains green in color, and the altcoin has moved back above the important balance point at $144.58.
The conversion line (blue) offers support at $151.34, serving as a good level for buy limit orders.
As the weekly chart shows below, we have three record sessions so far, mirroring bitcoin.
The daily chart shows that LTC-USD failed to establish a bullish Ichimoku breakout, possibly meaning we go back to test the $144.58 support. Also, we should continue to observe the price action and its relation to the base line (red). If the base line holds as support, we would want to buy, whereas a close below the base line would open up deeper lows.
The daily Renko chart, nevertheless, suggests an uptrend is still in place. Resistance is seen at $228.98, whereas a daily close below $146.82 would signal the start of a downtrend.
The 4-hour Renko chart shows that a reversal has already taken place with an initial target of $146-$144 level.
The weekly chart for Cardano (ADA) shows that the conversion line offers support near 0.00002900, while the base line offers resistance at 0.00004811. Last week’s price action formed a shooting star pattern (bearish), suggesting that further downside is to be expected. Therefore, we could short ADA-BTC targeting 0.00002900.
The 4-hour Renko chart also supports a move toward 0.00003000, as the current trend is indicated to be down, with red Renko’s forming. Important support levels are provided at 0.00003456 and 0.00002400.
The weekly chart for Stellar (XLM) shows support stands near 0.00003500, as indicated by the conversion line (blue). Immediate support is found at 0.00004013, as suggested by the lagging line. Therefore, the weekly close is important for the future direction, as a weekly close lower than 0.00004013 will be bearish for XLM whereas a close higher than this level will be mildly bullish.
The daily chart shows indecision with two Doji variants formed on May 7 and forming on May 8. Therefore, we could use the low of the first Doji and high of the second Doji as entry points. Once the market breaks above/below either of these levels, we can enter a buy/sell position. With the market above the Ichimoku cloud and the lagging line above the cloud as well, there is a slightly bullish bias.
However, the Renko chart indicates that a downward trend may soon begin, with a red Renko forming on May 8. A daily close below 0.00004108 is required for the signal to be confirmed, whereas if XLM-BTC remains above this level, the red Renko is not likely to form and we should see the uptrend continue.
NEO looks to close below the base line (red) which will open up the support provided by the cloud and the fractal at 0.00668501. Also, we see bearish momentum will take hold, as the conversion line is moving below the base line.
While the daily Renko chart shows an uptrend but a red Renko looks to form and will be confirmed with a daily close below 0.008142, in which case, short positions are advised.
As with BTC, the conversion line has moved lower, suggesting further downside for monero. Two important supports lie at $216.50 and $174.10. Resistance is provided by the conversion line at $229.55, and we look for a weekly close above this level to motivate a long position.
According to the daily chart, XMR-USD is in equilibrium, as the price action is contained by the cloud. The lower span of the cloud reaches down to around $188, providing another important support level. We also observe a neutral bearish signal, with the conversion line crossing below the base line.
Decred provided a bullish signal on April’s close. For the first time in its history, on the monthly timeframe, the conversion line moved above the base line, indicating bullish momentum on the long-term horizon.
Also, we see that the lagging line has moved above the previous price action. Furthermore, DCR-USD closed above the conversion line for April, providing another bullish signal.
As long as DCR-USD holds above the Fibonacci level at $83.51, we should see the market tend toward the Fibonacci extension at $134.92.
0x was close to testing the all-time high against bitcoin this week but was cut short of breaching this important level. The weekly chart below shows that a breach of the all-time high at 0.0001960 would open up the Fibonacci extension level at 0.0030990. The Ichimoku also indicates bullish momentum is in play, as the conversion line has moved higher than the base line.
Therefore, we look to buy on a break of 0.0001960 or alternatively look for a test of the conversion line at 0.00012500 to get in on the ongoing uptrend.
The top ten cryptocurrencies by market capitalization and 24-hour volume are displayed below.