by Jamie Holmes
Bitcoin jumped to a high of around $740 this week as Donald Trump surprised many and became the victor in the US elections. The initial response saw a risk-off trading environment with stock indices and the US Dollar in the red while safe havens such as gold, the Swiss Franc, and Bitcoin showed gains.
However, the boost in the price of bitcoin has subsided after the initial reaction by market participants and now BTC-USD has retreated to $715 at the time of writing, with altcoins starting to erase losses.
The jump in BTC-USD following the election of Trump was short-lived, with American stock markets posting strong gains today. The Dow Jones stock index hit an all-time high today on the back of Trump’s policies, which are perceived to benefit the manufacturing, banking and pharmaceutical sectors while bitcoin is down more than 1 percent on today’s open. The daily price action for BTC-USD is displayed below, where the gains have been almost completely erased and returning to the levels prior the election results.
The market is testing the support provided by the conversion line (blue) at $707.75 and a daily close below this level today will indicate an increased likelihood of further downward moves in the days ahead. The base line (red) provides further support at $684.66. On the other hand, a daily close above $707.75 should see the bullish momentum remain intact and see the market test fractal resistance at $745.19.
The short-term outlook is displayed below with the 4-hour Renko chart for BTC-USD and shows the nearly full completion of a bearish Renko candlestick. Therefore, if BTC-USD manages to break below $710.48, we should anticipate more downward momentum in the short term. However, if bitcoin manages to break out to the upside and move above $728.58, we should see bulls regain control over the short term.
Sellers have remained in control so far this week for ETH-USD, as displayed by the weekly chart below. Long-term momentum is suggested to have switched in favor of bears in the market, as the Awesome Oscillator has broken below the zero threshold and is now in negative territory, suggesting a move to fractal support at $7.00 is feasible; this will be further confirmed if this week’s price action manages to push below the $9.23 and would invalidate the formation of a fractal support at this level. On the other hand, if this week’s price action remains above $9.23, then we will see a fractal support form at this level and could generate renewed buying interest.
The Renko chart below shows the key breakout levels for ETH-USD. For buy orders, it is suggested to wait for the bullish Renko candlestick to fully form, which will occur once ETH-USD manages to sustain above $11.01. The market should then look to tend toward fractal resistance at $11.37 and $12.11. However, if ETH-USD breaks below $10.48, we anticipate the $10.00 psychological level to be tested again and expose the $9.00 handle as well.
The weekly chart for XRP-BTC below shows that the support at 0.00001122 has remained intact and we should see buying interest pick up in the weeks ahead. Last week, a doji candlestick was formed, indicating indecision amongst market participants. We should see XRP-BTC continue the upward trend, where the bullish outlook remains intact as long as XRP-BTC sustains above 0.00001122.
It is anticipated that XRP-BTC will return to equilibrium, that is the red Ichimoku cloud, over the coming weeks as it looks like that a fractal support will be formed at 0.00001016, the low from a fortnight ago.
The short-term outlook is displayed below for XRP-BTC and supports bullish sentiment. Firstly, today XRP-BTC has attempted a bullish breakout and a close above the Ichimoku cloud will point to further gains, with 0.00001200 serving as an initial target. Secondly, the Ichimoku cloud looks to be changing color from red to green, indicating the end of the short-term downtrend.
Thirdly, the Awesome Oscillator signals that bearish momentum is weakening as the oscillator is moving toward the positive territory and bars are successively green and trending higher. Finally, the conversion line is starting to trend higher and a crossover above the base line will give a bullish signal and increase the likelihood of a firm upward trend.
A break below $1.00 was realized for ETC-USD two weeks ago and now the next support lies at the $0.50 psychological level. Further losses are more likely in the days ahead as the conversion line has moved lower this week, which now provides resistance at $1.11. The negative gradient of the conversion line this week signals that there is a higher likelihood of a downward move for the rest of the week and the following weeks. We set our target at $0.50 for ETC-USD, after which the cryptocurrency should see buying interest.
After establishing a fractal support at $4.43 last week, XMR-USD has bounced higher and currently trades at $6.19 on the Poloniex exchange. Moreover, on the daily timeframe shown below, Monero has managed to close back above the base line, indicating bullish momentum should dominate in the days ahead.
Also, it looks as if the conversion line will move above the base line, which will give a weak bullish signal. Once this signal is confirmed, we anticipate XMR-USD to return to the equilibrium zone as displayed on the chart by the Ichimoku cloud and Monero to return to a value of around $7.75-$10.00. The next fractal resistance is seen at $7.22.
Furthermore, the bullish case for monero is strengthened when looking at the Awesome Oscillator. The oscillator loks to return to the positive territory and will give a strong bullish signal once the indicator moves back above zero.
As anticipated, the Zcash hype has finally died down and now finds itself at a more reasonable value against bitcoin. The chart below shows the 4-hour price action for ZEC-USD. Bearish momentum remains intact as the price action is below the Ichimoku cloud and the base line is higher than the conversion line.
The market is currently testing support at $225.00 and a break below this level should see ZEC-USD break below $200.00. A low of $180.00 has been realized so far this week and should provide support going forward; if this level is broken, sellers will most likely target the psychological support at $100.00. On the other hand, resistance is found at $320.11, as indicated by the most recent fractal sell level.
The daily price action for LSK-BTC is shown below and illustrates a hammer candlestick was formed on November 9, which gives a strong signal that the preceding downward trend is over. We look for further gains for Lisk in the days ahead as the conversion line has moved above the base line and is trending higher; both of these factors points to the higher probability of an upward move in LSK-BTC.
Also, the Awesome Oscillator is indicating that bearish momentum is weakening. Therefore, we expect LSK-BTC to return to equilibrium (that is the Ichimoku cloud) in the 0.00030 to 0.00035 zone.
The weekly price action for Factoids, shown below, indicates that bullish momentum remains intact, as the conversion line is still trending higher than the base line. Moreover, a fractal support looks to be forming at 0.00227103 and if this week’s price action remains above this level, then a buy fractal will be confirmed. This should serve to intensify bullish momentum and see FCT-BTC tend toward resistance provided by the conversion line at 0.0043.
This week’s price action has seen FCT-BTC test resistance provided by the base line, that is at 0.0039. A strong bullish outlook will be confirmed if FCT-BTC manages to close higher than 0.0039 on November 13 and will point to a long-term appreciation. Moreover, this upward move is supported by higher volumes, whereby the strongest bullish sentiment since September is signalled by the net buy volume on the Poloniex exchange this week.