Weekly Cryptocurrency Market Outlook Nov. 17
Every week, BTCManager provides an analysis of the largest cryptocurrencies, highlighting our sentiment and the technical factors that will drive trends in cryptocurrencies such as bitcoin, ether, and others.
Bitcoin has experienced bullish momentum as Chinese buying interests picks up on the weakening Yuan. The daily chart below shows that the market is at a critical resistance, whereby a daily close above the fractal resistance at $740.86 will give further bullish confirmation and open up the next resistance at $778.85.
Several bullish indications are displayed on the chart below. Firstly, the green Ichimoku cloud has started to trend higher, signaling that the equilibrium price for BTC-USD is rising. Also, the upward trending Ichimoku cloud also hints at further appreciation in the days ahead.
Secondly, the Awesome Oscillator has turned bullish today, with a green bar higher than the previous bar, providing a bullish signal. The upturn in the Awesome Oscillator suggests that bullish momentum is strengthening.
Finally, the conversion line (blue) and base line (red) are starting to follow the Ichimoku cloud upward, suggesting a higher probability of further gains for BTC-USD. Both lines provide support, at $716.60 and $694.99 respectively. Notice how the base line has provided support over the past two weeks, bouncing upwards when the market tried to test these levels.
Therefore, if a daily close above $740.86 is realized on November 17, this will strengthen the bullish outlook and BTC-USD will target fractal resistances around $780.
The shorter-term outlook is illustrated below with the 4-hour Renko chart. As displayed, we see BTC-USD is currently experiencing a bullish breakout after pushing above the ‘double top’ resistance at $735.90. Therefore, for further gains, BTC-USD should sustain above $735.90. A break below this resistance level could see a short-term switch to bearish momentum.
The chart also shows that the next significant resistance lies at $767.02 and a break of this level will open up $780 and the psychological $800 handle. As with the daily price action, we see that the Ichimoku cloud, base line and conversion line are starting to trend higher, suggesting bullish momentum will dominate.
The daily chart below illustrates a bearish outlook for ETH-USD; the Ichimoku cloud is red at the moment and provides a resistance zone around $10.75 and $11.90. Bearish momentum will dominate since the base line (red) is trending higher than the conversion line (blue). The base line currently offers resistance at $10.7573 and a daily close above a base line is required to necessitate a bullish outlook.
The most recent fractal levels are indicated on the chart, with support found at $9.56, whereas resistance is seen at $11.247. A break below $9.56 will lead to further losses for ETH-USD and sellers will look to target the next fractal supports at $9.23 and $7.00. The conversion line is continuing to trend lower, suggesting a higher probability of a continued downward move.
The 4-hour Renko chart below indicates that if ETH-USD breaks below $9.87636, the downward momentum will intensify and the market will look to test support found at $8.7303. However, a break above $10.25838 is required to see a short-term bullish trend take hold.
A bearish outlook for XRP-USD is displayed below, where the price action is below the Ichimoku cloud. Two possible reversal points are indicated where buying interest may start to dominate. Firstly, the fractal support at 0.00708817 should see buying interest,where this level successfully held as support twice in October. If the market breaks this support, further support is found at 0.00618436, the base of the bullish marubozu candlestick formed back in September.
Bearish momentum is indicated by the relative position of the base line and conversion line; since the base line is higher, bearish momentum is suggested to be in play. Also, the conversion line is trending lower, suggesting a higher likelihood of losses for XRP-USD in the days ahead.
The 4-hour Renko chart below shows that the market is currently testing the support provided by the green Ichimoku cloud. However, XRP-USD looks to break below this support, since we have seen the base line move above the conversion line and the Ichimoku cloud looks to be changing color from green to red, suggesting the start of a short-term downtrend. A sustained break below 0.00774012 will provide further bearish confirmation, whereas a break above 0.00815594 is required for a bullish outlook.
Litecoin may benefit from the rise in Bitcoin’s value, displaying a tailcoat effect. The daily chart below shows that the outlook leans toward more of a bullish case scenario for LTC-USD over the upcoming days.
Firstly, the Ichimoku cloud is green and fanning outwards, suggesting that LTC-USD may be gearing up to form an upward trend. Moreover, the conversion line (blue) has jumped sharply higher today and now provides support at $3.8992. The most recent fractal resistance at $3.9299 also looks to be broken today, with a close higher than $3.9299 on November 17 providing a bullish signal and will point to further gains.
LTC-USD now looks to target the recent high at $4.19998 and given the switch in momentum, as signaled by the Awesome Oscillator, this target is easily achievable. Notice that the Awesome Oscillator has turned positive today, after remaining in negative territory for over a week. Therefore, a sub-$4.00 buy could be a good entry into the emerging uptrend.
After posting a recent low at $6.06, Monero has regained some of its value and bulls are suggested to remain in control, since the market remains above the green Ichimoku cloud. The market looks to establish a 4-hour close above the conversion line, which provides resistance at $6.72. A close above the conversion line will point to more gains, however, the price action remains bounded by the Ichimoku cloud, suggesting a breakout to either side is possible. Moreover, the Ichimoku cloud projected ahead is very thing, suggesting traders should be wary of any change in momentum.
The next resistance lies at $7.11, provided by the base line, and a close above this level will strengthen a bullish outlook for XMR-USD. However, a move back below $6.50 will entail a bearish outlook for Monero, as this will mean the price action will move below the cloud and likely enter into a prolonged downtrend.
However, the daily price action shows a stronger bullish outlook for XMR-USD; firstly, the Ichimoku cloud looks to be changing from red to green, suggesting the start of an upward trend is imminent. Moreover, the lagging line (purple) has remained above the previous price action and has bounced from support, giving a bullish signal. Finally, a fractal support level looks to be forming at the recent low at $6.06. As long as the price action remains above $6.06 for November 17 and 18, a fractal support will be formed and buying interest will most likely follow on.
Therefore, we look for XMR-USD to regain the $8.00 psychological handle and could provide the impetus for a continuation of the longer-term uptrend, as indicated below, whereby the flat portion of the Ichimoku cloud aligns with the $8.00 level. A break above this level will see buying interest intensify and spark a new long-term uptrend.
THe weekly chart below shows the price action for Ethereum Classic’s token. A bearish outlook is presented again and the conversion line has moved lower again this week, providing resistance at $1.1037.
As long as ETC-USD remains below $1.00, we should see the cryptocurrency range between $1.00 and $0.50. The most recent fractal support is seen at $0.8574 and a break below this level will see ETC-USD tend towards the $0.50 psychological level with a higher certainty.
DASH-USD looks to be heading into a long-term dive as illustrated by the weekly price action below. Firstly, the Awesome Oscillator indicates weakening bullish momentum and looks to break below the zero threshold, which when realized, will give a strong bearish signal. Secondly, this week has seen the base line (red) cross above the conversion line (blue) also providing a bearish signal.
Therefore, we expect DASH-USD to tend toward the fractal support at $6.67 over the coming weeks.