Weekly Cryptocurrency Market Outlook Nov. 2
Bitcoin broke above the key psychological $700 level last week, shifting trader’s attention to BTC-USD away from other cryptocurrency pairs. Also, the hype surrounding Zcash also saw volumes decline for altcoins. The dwindling interest in altcoins saw a huge sell-off, with some altcoins, such as Factoid and Monero, experiencing a larger than 20 percent drop in less than 24 hours.
The weekly price action for BTC-USD is displayed with the chart below. We anticipate that the market will continue to tend toward fractal resistance at $778.85. The conversion line (blue) has also continued to trend higher this week, with the support provided this line moving up from $642.42 to $664.55. Also, this indicates that the market has a higher probability of continuing the uptrend.
Furthermore, notice that bullish momentum is strengthening as indicated by the Awesome Oscillator. After a few weeks of relatively flat momentum, the oscillator is beginning to trend higher and is green, pointing to bullish dominance in the weeks ahead. The upward move last week was also supported by higher volumes, with the most buying interest since the week following the Bitfinex hack. Therefore, higher volumes last week also point to further gains for BTC-USD.
If the market manages to break $778.85 to $800.00 resistance zone, increased buying pressure would see the market target the next weekly fractal resistance, which lies at $995.00 over the long run, shown below. Given that the upward crossover of the conversion line above the base line was realized just two weeks ago, as things stand, $995.00 should serve as a good long-term target for buy positions.
The short-term outlook is displayed below with the 4-hour Renko chart for BTC-USD. The Ichimoku cloud is green and trending higher, with BTC-USD looking to test resistance at $765.30. Sellers are only suggested to gain the upper hand if BTC-USD manages to penetrate below $703.62.
Sellers tried to push Ether below the $10.00 psychological level on the back on bitcoin’s strength and the Zcash hype but buyers managed to push the cryptocurrency back up to $11.26. In the previous weekly cryptocurrency market outlook, we suggested buy positions at $10.50. Notice that a hammer candlestick formed last week, which may indicate that the preceding downtrend has finished, similar to the hammer candlestick formed at beginning of August and the following weeks ETH-USD pushed higher.
Last week, ETH-USD reached a low of $9.23 and this could form a fractal support given that Ether manages to remain above this level in the week ahead. However, if ETH-USD breaks below $9.23, we would set a target for $7.00, a previous fractal support. The conversion line provides resistance at $11.83 and a weekly close above $11.83 will necessitate a bullish outlook over the long run. The price action so far has tested this resistance but has been sent back down to $11.17 at the time of writing. The chart below shows that, so far this week, there is indecision amongst traders as signaled by the Doji candlestick.
However, bearish momentum is indicated by the Awesome Oscillator, which is red and trending lower. The oscillator looks to break below the zero threshold and would provide a long-term sell signal.
The short-term outlook is ambiguous as the market is currently in the process of forming a bullish Renko candlestick at the 4-hour timeframe. The chart below shows the key breakout levels for ETH-USD. For buy orders, it is suggested to wait for the bullish Renko candlestick to fully form, which will occur once ETH-USD manages to sustain above $11.35. The market should then look to tend toward fractal resistance at $12.11 and $14.38. However, if ETH-USD breaks below $10.59, we anticipate the $10.00 psychological level to be tested again.
The hype surrounding Zcash and Bitcoin’s price surge saw XRP-BTC fall sharply. Last week, sellers remain in control throughout the whole time period but the downward momentum has been cut short at a key support level. The support at 0.00001122, provided by the base of the bullish Marubozu candlestick, indicated on the chart below. Ripple has bounced up from this level and could be a good entry into a long-term buy position. As the Zcash hype fades, we should see XRP-BTC continue the upward trend and the bullish outlook remains intact as long as XRP-BTC sustains above 0.000001122.
The short-term outlook is displayed below for XRP-BTC and shows that further bullish confirmation will be given with a move above 0.00001177, as this will lead to the formation of a bullish Renko candlestick and highlight the start of an upward trend. However, XRP-BTC will see losses if there is a breakout below 0.00001093.
A break below $1.00 was realized for ETC-USD last week and now the cryptocurrency will likely range between the $1.00 and $0.50 levels. However, the conversion line has stopped trending lower this week and is now horizontal. The conversion line now offers resistance at $1.20. Last week saw the highest sell volumes on the Poloniex exchange since the end of august, which points to further losses. We anticipate a further push down for ETC-USD, before trending toward $1.20, whereby the flat conversion line suggests equilibrium will be found in this zone.
XMR-USD managed to break below the $6.00 psychological level last week and established a fresh low at $4.19. Monero looks to be returning to its previous range, with the next support found at $3.30. The conversion line has started to trend lower this week, suggesting a higher likelihood of losses for XMR-USD. Moreover, the Ichimoku cloud, which is currently green in color, looks to be changing color and once it has turned red, this will give further bearish confirmation.
While many altcoins were weighed down by Bitcoin’s price surge and the Zcash launch, ShadowCash (SDC) is one cryptocurrency that has held up well. The chart below shows the weekly price action for SDC-BTC and shows that last week, ShadowCash was hardly changed on the week’s open. After posting an all-time high at 0.0039, the price has retraced and found support at the 61.8 percent retracement at 0.00172315. Since then, SDC-BTC has trended higher and suggests the high at 0.0039 will be tested again in the weeks ahead.
The Ichimoku indicator shown below illustrates that bullish momentum is starting to intensify, as signaled by the conversion line which has moved sharply higher this week. SDC-BTC remains within the Ichimoku cloud, suggesting the market is in equilibrium. A bullish outlook is suggested as the Ichimoku cloud has turned green indicating that an upward trend will prevail in the weeks ahead.
Zcash launched with a bang, with the privacy-centric cryptocurrency worth more than bitcoin at the time of writing. The 4-hour chart below illustrates the wild swings in the Zcash since its launch on October 28. After establishing a 4-hour session close above the conversion line, Zcash experienced bullish momentum reaching a high of $2,502.77. HOwever, ZEC-USD has moved back below the conversion line, indicating a higher probability of a downward move going forward.
A key support lies at $404.85, the most recent fractal buy level, which could serve as a good area to place limit buy orders for ZEC-USD. The conversion line currently offers resistance at $1,465.94.
The hourly Renko candlestick chart is displayed below for ZEC-USD and necessitates a short-term bearish outlook. The market recently closed below the base line, signaling bearish momentum will start to dominate. A break above $1,325.06 is required for a switch to a bullish outlook.
The chart below displays the 4-hour Renko chart for Dash. Notice that the Ichimoku cloud has turned from green to red, signaling the start of a downward trend for DASH-USD. Moreover, the base line is above the conversion line, suggesting bearish momentum will dominate. Finally, the price action has broken below of the Ichimoku cloud and now looks to test recent fractal support at $6.85. Therefore, our target remains at $7.63 to $6.85 for DASH-USD over the next few weeks.
THe daily price action for FCT-BTC is shown below, with a fresh low at 0.00227103 established on October 29, forming a fractal support. Currently, the FCT-BTC rate is at 0.00275116 and looks to continue upward. Since FCT-BTC is closer to a fractal support than the most recent fractal resistance, we expect Factoids to bounce back and tend towards 0.0042611. Also, the conversion line and base line have converged, highlighting an upward crossover that may occur and this will provide a bullish signal.