by Jamie Holmes
Every week, BTCManager provides an assessment of the technical factors that will drive trends in bitcoin and altcoins, with an emphasis on the largest cryptocurrencies and the best opportunities for traders in the week ahead. In summary, bitcoin is deciding on where to go next, ether is heading south and looking to test critical support while Factoids, Lisk and Monero are making gains which could translate into a longer-term uptrend.
The weekly chart below shows that buyers tried to push as high at $750.00 last week but were weighed back down to $727.32 by the week’s close. What is significant is that last week’s price action formed a Gravestone Doji candlestick pattern, which should put traders on alert that the preceding upward trend may be coming to an end.
Also, notice that the high posted on the week beginning November 14 has yet to be tested again, raising the possibility that a fractal sell level will form at $755.07. A push above this level is required this week to invalidate this fractal formation and sustain bullish momentum. On the other hand, if this week’s price action remains below $755.07, then the outlook will be more skewed to the downside for BTC-USD.
Nevertheless, upward momentum is suggested to still be in play as indicated by the rising conversion line (blue) and Awesome Oscillator. Support is provided by the conversion line at $680.00 this week.
The daily chart below shows that BTC-USD has tested the most recent fractal support at $722.30 but has since bounced higher. After closing below the conversion line on Saturday, a daily close back above the conversion line is required to strengthen the bullish outlook, that is a daily close above $735.50. Once this occurs, we should see another test of $755.07.
Also, notice that the base line (red) has started to trend higher today, suggesting a higher likelihood that bitcoin will appreciate. The base line also offers support at $718.03 and a daily close below this level today will see downward momentum start to gain dominance.
After breaking the $9.23 support, shown below, Ether has seen an intensification of the downward momentum, currently trading just above $8.00 at the time of writing. But where will the current downtrend exhaust itself?
The chart below shows two possible regions where sellers may become tired and a change in momentum may occur.
The next critical juncture for Ether is the $7.00 psychological handle, which also corresponds to two fractal buy levels. Notice the buying interest previously found around this level following the DAO hack in June and the April 2016 low. Such a strong support level should not be broken in the current circumstance since the Ethereum network is arguably not in as a bad position as it was back in June. However, if the $7.00 handle is broken, the next significant support lies around $5.40, as indicated by the peak of the lagging line (purple.)
The daily price action below illustrates the strength of the downward momentum in ETH-USD, whereby the Ichimoku cloud is trending lower and the base and conversion lines are almost vertical. The support zone at $7.00 to $6.47 is also displayed.
The weekly chart below shows the price action for XRP-BTC, which looks headed for further losses. The market is currently testing the fractal support at 0.00000926 and a weekly close below this level will expose support at 0.00000880. The conversion (blue) line is trending lower this week compared to the previous week, indicating a higher probability of further downside.
However, if XRP-BTC manages to sustain above 0.00000926, then we should see the cryptocurrency regain the critical 0.00001000 handle and look to test the resistance provided by the conversion line just under 0.00001200.
The chart below shows the daily price action for XRP-BTC, with the key breakout levels indicated on the chart with the yellow rays. The most recent fractal buy level is seen at 0.00000900 and a break below this level will open up Ripple to further losses. On the other hand, a break above the recent high at 0.00000970 should open up gains for Ripple and invalidate a fractal resistance forming at this level.
Our target at $0.50 for ETC-USD remains and Ether Classic has continued its downward trend, shown below. The conversion line (blue) has now pierced below the $1.00 psychological handle, supporting our conjecture that ETC-USD will trade within the $0.50 and $1.00 range going forward. The conversion line now offers resistance at $0.9724.
Following from our most recent cryptocurrency market outlook, Monero has been attracted to the horizontal portion of the Ichimoku cloud, illustrated below. Now XMR-USD attempts a breakout of the Ichimoku cloud, with a push above $7.94 confirming a bullish breakout and will point to further gains ahead.
Looking at the longer-term timeframe, we see that Monero is likely to surge, as we have obtained a strong bullish signal last week; that is, the market managed to close above the conversion line and now looks to smash the resistance provided by the base line at $8.05. Firstly, notice the curvature of the Awesome Oscillator, which is green and trending higher, suggesting bullish momentum is strengthening.
Secondly, the market has made a 76.4 percent retracement of the all-time high at $15.249 and has since started to move higher, suggesting another imminent test of $15.249 over the long term. A weekly close above the base line at the end of this week will provide further confirmation.
LSK-BTC has broken out of its range today with an advance above the most recent fractal resistance at 0.00022979 and a close above this level today will confirm bullish momentum. Moreover, there are several bullish indications on the daily price chart below.
Firstly, the volume traded is starting to pick up, foretelling further appreciation in the days ahead and signals that more people in the market are interested in an upward move. Secondly, the lagging line (purple) is looking to break above the previous price action after remaining subdued below the previous price action. Once the lagging line is above the previous price action, this will give a bullish signal.
Thirdly, the conversion line has a steep angle and is heading higher, providing an indication that LSK-BTC will most likely make further gains. Finally, the Ichimoku cloud, which is currently red, looks as if it is starting to change color to green. Once the cloud has turned green in color, we can be certain that a new upward trend will form.
Buyers should look to target the upper portion of the equilibrium zone, indicated by the thick, red Ichimoku cloud. Therefore, buy positions should look to target the 0.00030 to 0.00032 range.
Looking at the weekly price action for LSK-BTC below, we see that the fractal support at 0.00019156 has been rejected over the past few weeks and we now expect the market to tend toward the most recent fractal resistance at 0.00034077. Also, notice that the lagging line is now heading up, suggesting the market will follow.
The daily price action for Factoids (FCT) against Bitcoin is shown below. There are more bullish indications than bearish, suggesting FCT-BTC will make gains in the weeks ahead. Firstly, the Ichimoku cloud is very thin and an imminent change in color to green is likely. This signals a new upward trend is starting to form.
Secondly, the lagging line (purple) has crossed over the previous price action. Now that the lagging line is above the previous price action, the upside is exposed for FCT-BTC. Thirdly, the Awesome Oscillator looks to make a break above the zero threshold and has been continually rising over the past few weeks, suggesting bullish momentum is quietly strengthening.
Finally, notice that both the base and conversion lines have both shown a small uptick today after remaining horizontal for the last two weeks, which provides further evidence that FCT-BTC will begin trending higher.