Weekly Cryptocurrency Market Outlook Oct. 11
Every week, BTCManager provides an analysis of the largest cryptocurrencies, highlighting our sentiment and the technical factors that will drive trends in cryptocurrencies such as bitcoin, ether, and others.
Last week saw minor gains in BTC-USD but has started this week off with a bang, whereby bullish breakout has occurred. The fractal resistance at $628.99 has been breached and points to further gains for BTC-USD. The weekly price action is illustrated below and shows that the next fractal resistance lies at $782.02.
Also, the conversion line (blue) has not yet managed to cross above the base line (red) which signals that the upward move still has more potential fuel. We look for a crossover of the conversion line and base line to give further bullish confirmation and a shot at $700 for BTC-USD.
The daily chart, displayed below, shows the strength of the upward move that is currently in play. We look for further gains in BTC-USD is today’s close is higher than $628.99. This would open up a shot at $684.19 over the medium term, the most recent fractal resistance that has yet to be tested.
Strong bullish indications are given by the Awesome Oscillator, which has jumped higher today and remains green. Furthermore, both the base line and conversion line have sharply picked up today which tells us that the outlook is looking more bullish than any time over the past week or so. Finally, volumes have jumped as well today on the Bitstamp exchange, suggesting the appreciation will continue as it suggests more people want to get in on to buying BTC-USD, whereby changes in volume generally precede price action.
Last week, attacks on the Ethereum network pushed ETH-USD lower, currently floating above the $12.00 handle. Following a failure to breach the recent high at $14.45, a fractal resistance has formed at this level, shown by the weekly chart below. The most recent fractal support lies at $7.00; since we are closer to a key resistance level than to support, downward momentum looks to dominate over the long term.
The ongoing attack may contribute to an intensification of downward momentum, as ETH-USD closed below the conversion line (blue) last week, indicating there is now a higher likelihood of further downside over the long term.
Both the conversion line is flat this week, indicating that ETH-USD will be attracted to the $12.55. This level will act as resistance though and limit sell orders could be placed just above $12.55. Also, notice that the Awesome Oscillator is trending lower and the color is red this week, indicating downward momentum is more likely to prevail.
The daily chart, shown below, illustrates several interesting features. Firstly, the Ichimoku cloud, which is currently green, is starting to thin. This should alert market participants to a possible continuation of the downward trend. Once the Ichimoku cloud changes color to red, this will give further bearish confirmation for ETH-USD.
Secondly, the Awesome Oscillator has turned negative, providing a sell signal on Monday after piercing below the zero threshold. Finally, ETH-USD looks to be bouncing from support provided by the Ichimoku cloud. Therefore, it is suggested to enter sell positions in ETH-USD once the resistance provided by the base line (red) or conversion line have been tested, at $13.02 and $12.55 respectively.
Ripple sustained losses against bitcoin last week, trading between 0.000013 and 0.000011. The market now looks for support, as the most recent fractal support on the weekly timeframe is at 0.00000926, shown below.
Nevertheless, a long term bullish outlook is necessitated for XRP-BTC as the Awesome Oscillator is indicating a critical switch from bearish to bullish momentum. The oscillator will look to move above the zero threshold, which has not yet occurred in the history of the crypto-pair and will point to further gains, possibly testing the resistance zone provided by the Ichimoku cloud around 0.00001450 to 0.00002250.
The chart below displays the daily price action for XRP-BTC on the Poloniex exchange. Support is seen at 0.00001151. A sustained break below this level will see an intensification of the downward move. The Ichimoku cloud suggests that the equilibrium zone for XRP-BTC is 0.0000130. Also, the cloud is very thin, suggesting only weak resistance provided at 0.000013 in the days ahead.
Another indication that XRP-BTC may appreciate over the long term is that the base line is heading lower and the conversion line looks to cross above the base line. Once confirmed, this will signal bullish momentum will start to dominate. This is also supported by the Awesome Oscillator which is trending higher and moving away from the zero threshold after coming into close contact with it.
Ether Classic continued its downward slide last week and looks to continue the bearish momentum. Our target at $1.00 remains intact and is further confirmed by the conversion line, which has trending lower again this week. The conversion line offers resistance at $1.57 versus $1.78 last week.
Moreover, the price action has broken below the August 2016 low at $1.129 and further downside is exposed as a result. Lower volumes week on week also indicate declining interest in ETC-USD and supports our bearish outlook.
XMR-USD plunged on news that darknet market and major monero supporter Oasis pulled an exit scam, dampening confidence and intensifying bearish sentiment toward the cryptocurrency. XMR-USD tested the $6.00 psychological but has since regained the $7.00 handle, currently trading at $7.31.
The weekly price action is displayed below for XMR-USD and shows that last week the price action closed below the base line, providing a weak bearish signal. However, the candlestick pattern that formed was a hammer candlestick which suggests that $6.10 is the bottom of the preceding downward trend. Therefore, we look for a close above the base line this week, at $8.01, to confirm a long-term bullish outlook.
The daily price action shown below shows XMR-USD consolidating after the recent sell-off. The cryptocurrency is currently in equilibrium as suggested by the flat conversion line at $7.4268. Volumes are also rising which point to a recovery in the price of monero. Furthermore, a daily close above the conversion line will give bullish confirmation and lead to a test of the resistance zone provided by the Ichimoku cloud.
The Awesome Oscillator is also looking bullish, which further supports a bullish case for monero. The fractal support at $6.10 should provide support going forward and any buy positions should target the resistance at $8.75.
Augur’s token, REP, went live last week and stormed into the top ten cryptocurrencies by market capitalization. The 4-hour chart below shows that the $6.00 level has held as firm support so far. A breakout of $7.50 would see the market look to establish further gains. Currently, the base line is higher than the conversion line, suggesting downward momentum is dominating.
However, the base line is moving lower and it looks as if the conversion line will make a move above it. This will provide a bullish signal and give strong justification for a short-term buy for REP-USD.
Factom’s cryptocurrency, Factoids (FCT), looks to be recovering and getting ready to establish another uptrend. After posting a low at 0.00307750, FCT-BTC now has several bullish indications this week, shown below with the weekly price action for the crypto-pair.
For example, the Ichimoku cloud has turned green this week, supporting a bullish outlook for FCT-BTC. Moreover, the low at 0.00307750 will form a fractal support level as long as this week’s price action remains above this level. Conditional on remaining above 0.0307750, a fractal support will be formed at the end of this week and supports a bullish outlook as well.
Finally, the conversion line is above the base line, suggesting appreciation in FCT-BTC is more likely and the conversion line is trending even higher this week. Therefore, we will most likely see the price action follow in this direction. At present, the market is testing resistance provided by the base line at 0.00390 and a break above this level will see further gains in the days ahead.