Weekly Cryptocurrency Market Outlook Oct. 19
Every week, BTCManager provides an analysis of the largest cryptocurrencies, highlighting our sentiment and the technical factors that will drive trends in cryptocurrencies such as bitcoin, ether, and others.
The weekly price action for BTC-USD is displayed below. Last week’s close was higher than the most recent fractal sell level at $628.99, providing an indication of bullish momentum. Further confirmation will be given with a second weekly close higher than $628.99, which should open up an attempt at $782.02, the next fractal resistance on this timeframe.
However, today BTC-USD has retreated below $628.99, standing at $627.24 at the time of writing. The chart below shows that support will be found just above the $600 mark. The conversion line (blue) provides support at $603.40 and could be an optimal entry into long-term buy positions for BTC-USD. We also see that the trough of the lagging line (purple) also provides support level around $598. Therefore, we could be headed to the $600 level for a test of this psychological level before trending higher.
The daily chart is shown below and today’s close could see a break of the support provided by the conversion line, at $628.28. Given BTC-USD manages to close lower than $628.28 by the close of today’s trading, this will point to further losses and a test of the support zone signaled below by the green Ichimoku cloud. Therefore, we would wait to enter buy positions in BTC-USD until the market is within or near the green Ichimoku cloud. However, a breakout to the downside of the cloud will necessitate a longer-term bearish outlook.
The price of Ether jumped yesterday as Ethereum completed the first-stage of its hard fork to mitigate ongoing attacks on the network. ETH-USD managed to post a fresh high at $12.89 but has since retreated to the $12.00 handle. The daily chart is shown below, illustrating that ETH-USD remains within the Ichimoku cloud.
This suggests that a breakout to either the upside or downside is to be anticipated. Therefore, the best strategy is to place limit buy orders just above the Ichimoku cloud, i.e. at $12.95, and place limit sell orders just below the cloud, i.e. at $11.45. However, these trades should be very short term, as ETH-USD will not sustain itself out of equilibrium for long.
Nevertheless, there are some indications that the market could turn bullish. Firstly, the conversion line has converged with the base line (red), suggesting downward momentum is weakening. Furthermore, we wait for the conversion line to crossover above the base line to give more bullish confirmation. Secondly, the Awesome Oscillator is trending higher and is currently green, looking to jump above the zero threshold.
However, there is more likelihood we will see ETH-USD break below the Ichimoku cloud, as the cloud projected forward has turned red and the base line remains above the conversion line. Therefore, will look for a long-term buy position in ETH-USD around $11.50. Since the Ichimoku cloud suggests an equilibrium around $12.50 to $13.00 for the days ahead, this zone will act as a good take profit area for buy positions. Also, given that another hard fork is due to take place October 25, it is expected that a lot of volatility will characterize ETH-USD in the week ahead.
Buyers tried pushing XRP-BTC higher last week but sellers managed to drive the closing price back down near 0.000012 after testing the resistance provided by the base line, at 0.00001392. Therefore, last week saw the formation of what is known as a gravestone Doji and is bullish since the body of the candlestick is green.
This signals that the downward trend that took place from September 26 to October 9 may be over. Moreover, the strong bullish price action over the course of this week so far also gives a hint that XRP-BTC may be ready to smash the resistance at 0.0001392 and target the fractal resistance at 0.00001750.
The Awesome Oscillator has yet to cross above zero, currently lying on this critical threshold. Nevertheless, a break above the zero threshold looks imminent and provides a bullish case for XRP-BTC.
Looking at the daily chart for XRP-BTC below, we see that bullish momentum will dominate as the market looks to close higher than the fractal resistance at 0.00001317 today. Moreover, the market looks to be breaking above the Ichimoku cloud on the daily timeframe, signifying a bullish breakout and a possible test of 0.000016 in the days ahead. The Awesome Oscillator has turned positive today and yesterday’s price action closed above the conversion line, suggesting further gains ahead for Ripple.
Monero continued its losing streak last week, where sellers were in control over the whole of the week. However, the $6.00 psychological remained in place and XMR-USD has today regained the $7.00 level. The chart below shows the weekly price action and we could see a fractal support in the making.
Long-term sell positions are suggested if we breach below $6.00. However, as Monero has bounced from the 50 percent level of the strong bullish candlestick formed on the week of August 22, bullish momentum could start to gain dominance again. The next resistance stands at the base line at $8.01 and a weekly close above this level will strengthen the bullish outlook.
The daily price action for Monero is shown below. To strengthen the bullish outlook for XMR-USD, a close above the conversion line is required. Otherwise, we are likely to see the cryptocurrency trade sideways. Since the conversion line and the base line are both horizontal, this suggests that the market is deciding on the next overall trend. Therefore, we look to buy XMR-USD if the today’s close is higher than $6.78.
Ethereum Classic reached our target at $1.00 last week and witnessed a surge in buying interest that allowed ETC-USD to rise back to $1.20. However, this week the bearish streak has continued and while the market tested $1.00 last week, this week could see the eventual break of this psychological support and see ETC-USD trade in the $0.50 to $1.00 range in the weeks ahead.
The main factor motivating this outlook is that the conversion line has trended lower yet again this week, suggesting a higher likelihood of further downside vis-á-vis last week. Moreover, volumes have been falling week on week, suggesting less interest in the token. The Classic network is due to hard fork on October 25, which could reignite bullish momentum but as it stands the outlook is bearish.
DASH failed to regain the $12.00 handle last week and sellers remained firmly in control at the end of the week, closing just below $11.00. Today, DASH-USD is testing the $10.00 psychological level and looks to head toward the $7.00 level.
The weekly chart below shows the bearish outlook for DASH. The conversion line is starting to trend down giving an early indication that the weeks ahead will see further downside for DASH-USD. Moreover, the Ichimoku cloud is currently very thin and the color is green. However, this looks to be changing and once the cloud changes color to red, this will confirm the start of a long-term bearish market. Finally, notice that volumes have dropped in recent weeks as compared to the preceding weeks, suggesting declining interest in DASH.
The base line is offering support at $7.63 and DASH-USD will tend towards this level since the price action is below the conversion line. Moreover, a break of the most recent fractal support at $10.77 indicates that downward momentum will intensify, sellers should look to take profit around $7.63 to $7.50.
A bullish case remains for Factoids (FCT). FCT-BTC managed to close higher than the base line last week, closing just above 0.0039. Also, this week’s opening saw the formation of a fractal support at 0.307750, strengthening the case for upward momentum again this week.
Since the market has just formed a fractal support, FCT-BTC now looks to establish a new resistance level and find a ceiling. The most recent fractal resistance lies at 0.00682331, whereby the market will tend towards this level in the long run. Since the conversion line offers resistance at 0.0050, this level serves as a good take profit target for buyers.