by Jamie Holmes
Every week, BTCManager provides an analysis of the largest cryptocurrencies, highlighting our sentiment and the technical factors that will drive trends in cryptocurrencies such as bitcoin, ether, and others.
Last week BTC-USD dipped as low as $624.13 on the Bitstamp exchange but bulls remained in control as the market closed just under $650. Therefore, the bullish outlook remains firm and has even strengthened, as the conversion line (blue) has now moved above the base line (red), confirming a switch to bullish momentum on the weekly timeframe, shown below.
Also, last week’s close was the second, consecutive higher close above the most recent fractal resistance at $628.99, which gives a strong bullish signal for the weeks ahead. We anticipate the market to tend toward fractal resistance at $782.02.
The short-term outlook is displayed below with the 4-hour Renko chart for BTC-USD. The chart illustrates that bitcoin will now look to test the resistance zone between $680 and $700. We are currently experiencing an upward trend as the current candlestick is a bullish, green Renko. The short-term bullish outlook is only invalidated with a move below $638.98.
There are multiple features of the chart that indicate bullish momentum will remain intact. Firstly, the green Ichimoku cloud is trending higher, foretelling further gains. Secondly, the conversion line and base line are also trending higher, indicating a higher likelihood of further appreciation in BTC-USD. Finally, the lagging line (purple) has now pierced above the Ichimoku cloud, providing strong confirmation that an upward trend is firmly in place.
ETH-USD is down almost 6 percent from today’s open as selling interest increases from market participants. The second stage of Ethereum’s hard fork to mitigate DOS attacks is due today and it if goes smoothly, it could rekindle confidence in ETH-USD and see a switch to bullish momentum.
However, the weekly chart below indicates that bearish momentum is more likely to prevail this week. For example, last week we saw buyers push as high as $12.89 but sellers brought the close lower just above $12.00. After testing the conversion line, the market was unable to close above it last week, providing a higher likelihood we will see further losses for ETH-USD this week.
Moreover, bearish momentum is also indicated by the Awesome Oscillator, as the indicator looks to cross below the zero threshold. Once realized, this will provide a strong sell signal for ETH-USD. Therefore, we expect ETH-USD to tend toward the most recent fractal support at $7.00.
The 4-hour Renko chart is illustrated below, indicating the next support will be found around $10.50. If this support is broken, further support is found at $8.71. The red Ichimoku cloud is trending lower which points to further downside for Ether and the Awesome Oscillator is also red and trending lower. Therefore, we will look to buy at the support levels $10.50 or $8.71 over the short-run.
XRP-BTC managed to establish solid gains last week and the bullish outlook remains intact for the week ahead. The Awesome Oscillator has, for the first time in Ripple’s history, moved above the zero threshold, signaling bullish momentum will dominate. However, the resistance around 0.000014 remains intact and we require a weekly close above this level to strengthen the bullish case for XRP-BTC.
The chart below shows the weekly price action and a bullish signal that could be incoming is the lagging line moving above the previous price action. Since the lagging line has been below the previous price, it indicates that momentum is more likely to be toward the downside. However, once the lagging line moves above the previous price, it signifies that the current price is higher than the price 26 weeks ago and should provide an impetus for an upward swing.
The chart below shows the 4-hour Renko chart for XRP-BTC and shows that it is currently within the Ichimoku cloud, suggesting a short-term breakout in either direction is possible. We look for a short- to medium-term buy if XRP-BTC manages to breach above 0.00001420. However, if the cryptocurrency pair breaks below the Ichimoku cloud, that is 0.00001245, we expect bearish momentum to dominate over the short run.
Ether Classic undergoes a hard fork on October 25 to mitigate attacks on the network but the momentum has remained bearish so far this week. Last week, sellers were in control during the whole time period, bringing the weekly close of ETC-USD to $1.04. The chart below shows that ETC-USD is resting just above the $1.00 handle with a break below this level looking imminent. The conversion line has trended lower yet again this week, providing resistance at $1.26 and also signaling that there is a higher likelihood of the downward trend continuing.
The 4-hour Renko chart is shown below and shows a recent switch to bearish momentum, as indicated by the crossover of the conversion line and base line. Therefore, the downside will be relatively more exposed going forward. We look for a break below $1.00, which is being driven by higher sell volume on the Poloniex exchange, indicating increasing interest in a downward move.
The weekly chart below shows that Monero has held its head above the critical support at $6.01 and a bullish outlook will remain intact as long as XMR-USD stays above this level. The chart also shows that the conversion line has started to trend higher with a steep slope, suggesting bullish momentum should start to pick up in the weeks ahead.
However, if there is a sustained break below $6.01, then XMR-USD will look to the downside and establish fresh lows.
The weekly price action for DASH-USD is shown below and has broken the $10.00 psychological level, necessitating a bearish outlook for the week ahead. Also, two bearish signals are also given. Firstly, the Ichimoku cloud has just turned red after it was green in color. This tells us that a long-term downward trend may just be starting. Also, the conversion line has moved sharply lower again this week, signaling a higher likelihood of downward momentum. Therefore, our target remains at $7.63 for DASH-USD over the next few weeks.
Factom’s cryptocurrency, Factoids (FCT), made gains against bitcoin last week and managed to close above the base line, which provides a bullish signal. Therefore, we expect bullish momentum to dominate again this week and we should see the market target resistance provided by the conversion line at 0.0050.
The chart below shows the daily price action for FCT-BTC and shows that the conversion line looks to be moving above the base line, which will give a weak bullish signal. Once the signal has materialized, we should see the market move higher and test the resistance zone provided by the Ichimoku cloud. Also, notice that the Awesome Oscillator is moving toward the zero threshold and the bars are green, suggesting bullish momentum is gaining strength. Further bullish confirmation will be given once the oscillator crosses above the zero threshold.