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Weekly Cryptocurrency Market Outlook Oct. 4

Reading Time: 5 minutes by on October 4, 2016 Cryptocurrency Market Outlook

Every week, BTCManager provides an analysis of the largest cryptocurrencies, highlighting our sentiment and the technical factors that will drive trends in cryptocurrencies such as bitcoin, ether, and litecoin.


BTC-USD (BitStamp)

Last week saw the base line (red) hold as support at $595.42 and the weekly close was at $608.60. The price action last week managed to stay above the floor established two weeks ago at $592.10 and could see the formation of a fractal support level, which would be bullish for BTC-USD. Therefore, s long as the market stays above $592.10, BTC-USD should be more attracted to the upside rather than the downside.

Moreover, the weekly chart below shows that the conversion line has jumped up sharply this week, indicating bullish momentum is stronger than compared to previous weeks. Moreover, the conversion line (blue) looks to make an upward cross-over of the base line, which will give a strong bullish signal. Resistance is seen at $628.99 and a break above this level will see $680 as the next target for buyers.

Also, notice that the green Ichimoku cloud is starting to trend higher, giving an early indication of a continuation of the upward trend.


The 4-hour Renko chart is shown below for BTC-USD indicates that shorter-term momentum is in favour of sellers in the market. A break below $606.18 will point to further downside and test of $600 psychological level. However, buyers should look for a breakout above $612.58, which will indicate a short-term reversal into an uptrend, with an initial target at $625.

Overall, this week, the outlook for BTC-USD is bullish with upward momentum beginning to take hold.


ETH-USD (Kraken)

The chart below shows that ETH-USD only managed to post small gains last week, however, ether managed to close above the $13.00 psychological level. The chart below shows a sharp jump in both the conversion line and Ichimoku cloud, signalling strong upward momentum in the weeks to follow. Also, the Awesome Oscillator is continuing to trend higher, supporting an upward move in ETH-USD. The conversion line offers support at $12.55 this week and acts as a good entry into a long-term buy position. The market now looks to test the fractal resistance at $15.2392.


The 4-hour Renko chart displayed below illustrates the short-term trend for ETH-USD is up. Therefore, the best bet is a long position in ETH-USD with targets at fractal resistances at $13.76 and $14.32, so market participants should be alert when ETH-USD is approaching these areas to see if the upward momentum will continue.

A short-term sell position in ETH-USD is only justified with a move below $13.19664, which would signal the start of a downward trend according to the Renko candlestick chart.

Overall, this week, the outlook for ETH-USD is strongly bullish, with our target remaining at $15.23.


XRP-BTC (Poloniex)

Following our bullish outlook last week, XRP-BTC established a high at 0.00001566 but has since been tempered back below 0.000014. The base line is providing resistance around 0.00001372 and a break above this level should see the upward momentum continue. Both the conversion and base lines are horizontal suggesting the market’s equilibrium is around these levels and supports a long-term buy for XRP-BTC which currently trades around 0.00001315.

The 4-hour Renko chart is shown below for XRP-BTC. At present, the short-term trend is down and we would look to buy if the market manages to break above 0.00001408, which would indicate a trend reversal. The market is currently testing support at 0.00001316, while the next support is found at 0.00001132. In the event of a reversal, resistance is seen at 0.00001546.

Overall, this week, we expect XRP-BTC to trade sideways before continuing with the newly established upward trend.


LTC-USD (Kraken)

Last week saw higher buy volumes for LTC-USD, pointing to further gains this week. Also, the weekly chart below show that the conversion line has stopped trending lower and looks to start moving higher, giving a bullish signal.

Moreover, the Awesome Oscillator is trending higher and signals that bullish momentum has the potential to be stronger this week. Will we see a break of the $4 handle? A break of the fractal resistance at $4.04, which will be confirmed with a weekly close above this level, will point to further gains in the weeks ahead.

The short-term outlook is illustrated below with the 4-hour Renko chart. Bullish momentum is in play as indicated by the Awesome Oscillator, which has broken above the zero threshold. Moreover, market participants can get in on the uptrend by placing a buy limit just above $3.89. A break above this level will signal a bullish breakout, with an initial target at $4.02.

Overall, this week, we see a strong bullish outlook for LTC-USD, with an imminent break of the $4 handle.


XMR-USD (Poloniex)

Last week’s close managed to remain above the support provided by the conversion line at $8.26, meaning that we have not yet obtained a bearish signal on  the weekly timeframe. Moreover, this week’s close will be key to the future direction of Monero going forward. For instance, if we see a close below the base line, that is below $8.01, then the outlook will be bearish over the long-term.

Last week saw a fresh low of $7.14 posted and the market may just be establishing a fractal support before continuing higher. Therefore, as long as the market treads water above $7.14 for this week, the outlook should remain bullish. Also, notice that the conversion line is starting to trend higher this week, suggesting a higher likelihood the market will trend higher.

On the other hand, the Awesome Oscillator is suggesting strong bearish momentum this week as the oscillator has turned from green to red.

On the shorter timeframe, we see that monero is reversing the downward trend and looking to establish gains, illustrated below with the 4-hour Renko chart. The formation of a bullish Renko candlestick over the weekend suggests buy positions are favoured, with an initial target for buyers at $11.50, indicated below. Further downside is expected if the market breaches below $7.45.

Therefore, on balance, we have a slightly bullish outlook on XMR-USD this week with monero looking to regain the $11.50 handle.


ETC-USD (Poloniex)

After muted price action last week, Ethereum Classic closed the week in the red. We still anticipated a move toward $1.00 psychological level and this is confirmed by the weekly chart below. Firstly, the conversion line (blue) has moved down sharply suggesting a higher likelihood that this week’s close will be lower than the open.

The market is currently testing the previous floor at $1.1751 and a break of this fractal support will open up the $1.00 handle. Notice that the Renko chart currently suggests sell positions in ETC-USD and a buy is only validated with a move above $1.2146.

On balance, this week, we look for further losses in ETC-USD with our target remaining at $1.00.


DASH-BTC (Poloniex)

The weekly chart below shows that DASH enjoyed small gains against bitcoin last week and this week could see a solidification of these gains. For instance, the conversion line has continued to trend higher and the Awesome Oscillator is flattening out, suggesting sellers are becoming exhausted. After testing the 0.0200 psychological level over the past three weeks, DASH-BTC looks to jump back above this level. Volumes were slightly higher last week compared to the preceding week, supporting further gain in the days ahead.

The 4-hour Renko chart displays the short-term outlook for DASH-BTC. The short-term trend is upward and we would only look to enter sell positions once the market breaches below 0.0190448 and market participants could set sell limit orders just below this level. As long as the market remains above 0.0190448, we should see the upward trend continue with a target at 0.0210656.

Overall, this week, the outlook is another slightly bullish one for DASH-BTC and we anticipate a move toward 0.0210.

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