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Weekly Cryptocurrency Market Outlook Sep. 20

Reading Time: 6 minutes by on September 20, 2016 Cryptocurrency Market Outlook

Every week, BTCManager provides an analysis of the largest cryptocurrencies, highlighting our sentiment and the technical factors that will drive trends in cryptocurrencies such as bitcoin, ether, and litecoin.


BTC-USD (BitStamp)

The chart below displays the weekly price action for BTC-USD on the BitStamp exchange. We see that the last week of August provided a bullish signal as the price action managed to close back above the base line (red), which is currently providing support at $593.03 this week.

Therefore, we should see bullish momentum remain intact as long as the market closes above $593.03. Alternatively, a close below $593.03 this week will provide a weak bearish signal and foretell a movement toward the equilibrium zone, as displayed by the green Ichimoku cloud below.

Two weeks ago, we experienced indecision in the markets as the candlestick for that week was a Doji, posting a high at $628.99. If this week’s price action does not manage to test this high, then a fractal resistance will be formed at $628.99 and will hint that further downside is expected for BTC-USD. Furthermore, the conversion (blue) line is starting to trend lower and is below the base line, hinting that momentum may be shifting in favour of bears in the market.

On the other hand, buyers could capitalize on a breakout by placing limit buy orders just above the $628.99 level as a break of this resistance will point to further gains and the market should tend towards the most recent fractal resistance at $778.75.

On the short-term outlook, an upward trend is currently in place suggesting buy positions for BTC-USD as the current Renk candle is green. The past week the price has gyrated around $605 as shown below and a break above $608.67, the high of the current Renko candle, should give further bullish confirmation, with buyers looking to target resistances at $625.71 and $656.95.

Sell positions in BTC-USD are suggested only if the market manages to sustain below $602.99. In this event, we will see a bearish Renko candle form and will indicate the start of a short-term downtrend. A break below $600 will expose the support at $565.


ETH-USD (Kraken)

Ether has seen three consecutive weeks of gains against the US Dollar and the bullish momentum looks to be intensifying, with the market tending toward the most recent fractal resistance at $15.2392. As the chart shows, volumes have picked up recently compared to the weeks in August, supported further appreciation in ETH-USD. A break of the resistance at $15.2392 should see ETH-USD attempt to regain the $20.00 handle.

Also, notice that the market is coming up against resistance provided by the base line (red) at $14.245. Therefore, a weekly close above $14.245 will confirm further appreciation in ETH-USD in the long-term. However, if the base line holds as resistance, we will look for another move toward $10.00.

The Awesome Oscillator is higher and has turned green this week, suggesting bullish momentum is more likely to dominate this week. The chart below also shows that the lagging line (purple) is moving higher and its steep slope indicates the strength of the bullish momentum, which is expected to push ETH-USD back above $15 in the weeks to follow.

The short-term outlook for ETH-USD is displayed below with the 4-hour Renko chart. After bouncing from the $11.50 level, the upward momentum has remained unrestricted and buy positions are recommended at present with another bullish Renko candle looking to form, shown below. The next resistance level will be found at July’s high near $14.50. A break above this level will see ETH-USD return above the $15.00 psychological level.



XRP-BTC (Poloniex)

The weekly price action below shows that Ripple spiked in value last week following the announcement of the $55 million in funding and the expansion of its network with large banks. XRP-BTC reached a high of 0.00001750 but closed the week much lower at 0.00001119. Last week saw the formation of an inverted hammer candlestick, which suggests the reversal of the downward trend that has remained dominant during the majority of the year.

The large rise in volume last week also points to further gains ahead for Ripple, however, the current price is within the range of the two previous fractal support and resistance levels, as indicated by the yellow rays on the chart. Therefore, we look for a weekly close above 0.00001269 for further bullish confirmation whereas support should be found at 0.00000926.

Moreover, a switch to long-term bullish momentum looks to be in play, as the conversion (blue) line is looking to move above the base (red) line. If this signals materializes, then XRP-BTC will be a strong, long-term buy.

However, the 4-hour Renko chart for XRP-BTC is shown below, displaying a downward trend is currently in place. The market is now testing the previous resistance, which is now support, at 0.00001132 and a sustained break below this level will see XRP-BTC tend toward 0.0000090, where buying interest was previously found.

We would only look for a short-term buy for XRP-BTC if the market manages to move above 0.00001234, as this will indicate that a reversal has been successful and signal the start of an upward trend.



LTC-USD (Kraken)

The weekly price action for litecoin is displayed below and shows that a fractal resistance is forming at $4.04. Unless this week’s price action manages to post a fresh high above $4.04, the momentum will look to favour sellers in the market. Also, notice that three weeks ago we saw the formation of a hammer candlestick, which foretold the end of the preceding uptrend. Since then LTC-USD has moved lower and now looks to test the most recent fractal support at $3.38726. As the current price is nearer the resistance at $4.04, we expect LTC-USD to tend towards the $3.38 level.

Also, notice that three weeks ago we saw the formation of a hammer candlestick, which foretold the end of the preceding uptrend. Since then LTC-USD has moved lower and now looks to test the most recent fractal support at $3.38726. As the current price is nearer the resistance at $4.04, we expect LTC-USD to tend towards the $3.38 level.

The current price is within the Ichimoku cloud and sitting on support provided by the conversion (blue) line. However, the conversion line is trending lower, suggesting further losses for LTC-USD and the base line is trending higher than the conversion line, indicating bearish momentum will dominate over the long-term. A weekly close below the conversion line, that is below $3.78, should see the market test the lower span of the Ichimoku cloud, whereas if $3.78 holds we could see some correction to the upside.

The 4-hour Renko chart is shown below and LTC-USD looks to be making a move towards the $3.50 area. The current trend is bearish as the current Renko is red. The market is currently testing critical support at $3.80818, which has held as strong support twice previously. But a break this time will expose LTC-USD to the downside, with the next support found at $3.42786.

Also, notice the pattern that is formed by the Renko candlesticks, this is known as ‘head and shoulders’, where the market is currently trying to break the neckline of the ‘head and shoulders’. Therefore, this pattern also suggests LTC-USD will move lower over the next few days.


XMR-USD (Poloniex)

After moving below the critical $10.00 psychological level last week, XMR-USD has managed to regain a double-digit Dollar value. The chart below shows that buyers are still in control, as the price is above the Ichimoku cloud and the Awesome Oscillator is signalling strong bullish momentum, which is growing week by week.

The conversion (blue) line provides an ideal entry into long positions and provides support at $8.265. After bouncing up from this area last week, the market now look ready to jump up and test the previous high at $15.24999. Volumes are low on the Poloniex exchange compared to previous weeks, suggesting that a reversal of momentum may be playing out this week.

The short-term outlook for Monero against the US Dollar is shown below with the 4-hour Renko chart, with an upward trend in place at present. The market now looks to move above $13.00 where the next resistance is found at $13.45. Therefore, buy positions are suggested for XMR-USD. Sell positions are only suggested if the market manages to sustain below $9.77, which would indicate a successful reversal into a downward trend.



ETC-BTC (Poloniex)

Last week, ETC-BTC moved slightly lower after experiencing losses in the preceding week. The critical level going forward is 0.001875, which is the most recent fractal support level. Therefore, at the end of the week, if the close is below 0.001875, then we should see a longer-term downward move in ETC-BTC. On the other hand, if 0.001875 is tested and holds as support, then 0.001875 could be a good entry to buy ETC-BTC.

The short-term outlook is illustrated below with the 4-hour Renko chart for ETC-BTC. Fresh lows seem imminent for ETC-BTC as the market is looking to break below the support shown below at 0.00206295. Look to buy ETC-BTC only if the market manages to reverse back above 0.00213891.


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